A crucial party convention

Like the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, of Turkey which rightly boasts of being the party that established the modern Turkish republic, the UBP is the political transformation of the Turkish Cypriot Resistance Movement, or TMT, who waged an epic struggle to fend off Greek Cypriot attacks all through the sixties and until the 1974 Turkish intervention and in a way is the party that established the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or the TRNC.

At today’s convention there are two candidates running for the party leadership. One is the current party chairman Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu, the other is 70-year-old Derviş Eroğlu, the party’s former chairman and a seven-time prime minister from 1985 to 1994 and from 1996 to 2004, who was declared "party leader" after he stepped down from party chairmanship in 2005 after a humiliating electoral defeat. While Ertuğruloğlu represents the young new generation, Eroğlu represents the old guard of the party. While Ertuğruloğlu, a former foreign minister, has been a loyal supporter of the policies of Denktaş, Eroğlu was the arch-rival of Denktaş on the conservative flank. Eroğlu’s differences with Denktaş, however, were rather confined to domestic political issues.

Fight of two hawks
Both the 55-year-old Ertuğruloğlu, and 70-year-old Eroğlu have rather hawkish views and oppose a settlement to the over 45-year-old Cyprus problem that falls short of recognition of the Turkish Cypriot state even for a very brief period and which is not based on the "full political equality and partnership in governance" of the two founding states who even after settlement must retain "residual" sovereign powers. That is, in essence, both are supporting - without saying so - a confederal settlement on the island, rather than a federation. Indeed, for both candidates the best settlement on the island is indeed to make the de facto partition on the island into de juro through a land for peace deal with the Greek Cypriot side and thus establishing "unity of the island" through European Union membership of both two states. Once two independent and EU-member states were established on the island, both leaders defend, these two states could then resume talks if they wish, on the basis of equality and negotiate a federal or confederal arrangement.

Compared to the strong "federal settlement" stance of the current the CTP-led coalition and President Mehmet Ali Talat - a former CTP leader - the UBP, therefore, is offering the Turkish Cypriot people a real alternative.

While the increase in popular support for the UBP appears to be stemming rather from the failure of the CTP-led coalition and President Mehmet Ali Talat - a former CTP leader - in providing the 2005 campaign pledge of a "speedy resolution of the Cyprus problem in a new federal partnership state," it is a fact as well that the UBP have re-found massive popularity only after Eroğlu - whose image was tarnished with nepotism, corruption and favoritism charges - stepped down and the party restructured itself. Now, Eroğlu and his supporters claim that the veteran politician is making a bid for party leadership because not only were Ertuğruloğlu and his team unsuccessful but the country demanded to have once again a strong political leader and a prime minister capable with vast experience to bring an end to the economic mess produced by the CTP-led coalition government. Ertuğruloğlu and his supporters, on the other hand, say Eroğlu has become the fresh hope of the CTP because his election as UBP leader would dwarf the electoral support for the party and thus help the CTP remain in power.

After Eroğlu supported candidates won at the Nicosia and Famagusta local conventions, the general expectation is that he will score an outstanding success against Ertuğruloğlu at today’s convention. While that remains to be a strong probability, young delegates may well unite at the last minute behind Ertuğruloğlu and send Eroğlu home to look after his grandchildren.