Turkey, together with Europe, tackles a resurgent Russia

But the tone of proceedings was set by the OSCE chairman-in-office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, who said at a news conference ahead of the gathering that the Ministerial Council this time would not be "business as usual." The simple reason for this stern observation was the fact that the proceedings in Helsinki would be conducted under the shadow of developments in the Caucasus following the invasion and division of Georgia by Moscow.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev first outlined plans for a new European Security Treaty modeled on the discussions that led to the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and based on the United Nations Charter. "When one takes a close look at the situation in Europe, one finds it difficult not to come to the conclusion that its current architecture bears the stamp of an ideology inherited from the past," Medvedev said in June in Berlin.

Washington and NATO are, however, extremely reluctant to see Medvedev's proposal go through. NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer made this amply clear in a statement before the Ministerial. "It is ...crystal clear that the present security structure should remain intact, that NATO is NATO and there is not a glimmer of chance that in whatever discussion NATO could or would be negotiated away. That is totally out of the question," de Hoop Scheffer said.

There are of course countries in Europe who are keen to discuss the Medvedev plan and France appears to be in the forefront in this respect. Whether all the countries of "New Europe" - i.e. the former satellites of the Soviet Union, are so keen, however, remains an open question. Talking to journalists and diplomats here in Helsinki from some of these countries, it is clear that there is a belief that Moscow is after a "Russia-friendly" security arrangement in Europe, that will entail less of a presence on the continent by the United States.

This alone shows that the ministerial gathering in Helsinki would not only be tough, but also has the potential of turning acrimonious due to developments in the Caucasus, and the sensitivities this has caused in central and eastern Europe. The Finnish chairmanship is trying to push through a "forward-looking" political declaration to be agreed by all 56 OSCE participating states, but even Finnish diplomats were not too hopeful that this could be achieved.

"The odds are against us ... we have the crisis in Georgia, this sets the tone, so we should not have high expectations," Aleksi Harkonen, head of the Finnish OSCE Chairmanship Task Force, said of the prospects of agreeing a joint declaration. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is not attending the meeting in Helsinki because she will be in India where developments appear more urgent for Washington today than discussing Russian plans for new European security architecture.

But even if she were present, Finnish officials understand that it would have been difficult to secure firm U.S. commitments on any issue prior to President-elect Barack Obama’s taking office on Jan. 20. Turkey, which is being represented here by Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, is of course following these proceedings with great interest and a fair bit of concern. The reason is that the discussions here involve a geography that is of vital strategic importance for Ankara.

The fact is that Turkey has to perform a very careful tight-rope walking act here, given that it is not only a NATO member, but also has close ties with Russia and Georgia. Then there is the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the reflections this has on Turkish-Armenian relations to consider. While Ankara would not be keen to support any development that would water down NATO’s influence in Europe, it is nevertheless aware that more consideration has to be given to some concerns of Russia’s, and that for this there has to be a mechanism of proactive dialogue with Moscow.

Foreign Minister Babacan is also following the Armenian-Azerbaijan talks that are taking place here in Helsinki under the auspices of the OSCE’s so-called "Minsk Group." Turkish diplomats say that the remarks on the Karabakh dispute to come out of Helsinki will be important as an indication of how Europe wants to see the situation in this territory disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan resolved.

Ankara is pleased that Russia, as a keen player in the region, has taken an initiative in trying to solve this problem. Turkey believes that if Moscow can be brought to a position of playing a positive role in such disputes it will also clear its image tarnished as a result of Georgia. Put another way Turkey is not keen to see Russia isolated or punished over Georgia, which it believes would only aggravate the situation in the Caucasus further. This does not mean, however, that Turkey is not concerned by Moscow’s moves.

Turkish diplomats are not blind to attempts by Russia to control developments in Europe and increase its influence on the continent. Diplomatic sources tell us that Turkey has even been lobbying the European Union on behalf of the Central Asian Republics in an attempt to get closer cooperation going between the sides, and thus balance the rising influence of Russian over these countries by providing them a perspective of increased cooperation with the European Union.

At it is, NATO’s ministerial meeting in Brussels, which concluded a day before the Helsinki gathering, actually demonstrated Russia’s rising global influence. Key European countries not only blocked Georgia’s NATO path at that meeting, but also decided to restart the dialogue with Russia, severed in August over developments in Georgia.

This is enough to show all and sundry that relations with Moscow are not just an academic proposition for Europeans given the direct or indirect influence Russia yields over Europe.

The short of all this is that while the meeting here in Helsinki is not expected to produce any major breakthrough, it will set the agenda for Europe and provide hints as to what will be the key issues concerning European security for the coming period.

It is clear that these developments will also concern Turkey extremely closely.