Will Davutoğlu keep his EU promise?

We faced scenes that contradicted each other. Let’s first start with Merkel and Sarkozy.

Because reforms did not start yet, France and to some extent Germany rolled up their sleeves to slow down Turkey’s process for the EU and started preparations to bring out the project of a "Privileged Partnership." It is not known what a "Privileged Partnership" is.

Everybody has a different explanation. What’s known is that it is not a full membership; it is a struggle to keep Turkey among the EU club with a Second Class Partnership with no place in the parliament and with little money.

To tell the truth, France requests this formula. Germany is happy with it. Austria, Cyprus and Greece are applauding from behind the curtains.

As long as Turkey does not put reforms in motion, this trend steps in. Whenever it wants to take a step it is stopped and not a word is spoken.

Without underestimating Sarkozy and Merkel, let’s take a look at the other side of the coin. Meanwhile signals from the European Commission are very different. When talking to those on the commission who watch Turkey closely, I start to see things more clearly.

Brussels only talks about the economic crisis and how the Lisbon agreement will develop. Since it does not infuse politics and corporate crisis, nobody thinks about expansion. And if you add to this confusion the appointment of the commission in the fall and parliament elections, the situation becomes a little clearer.

Debate goes on as to whether who will stay on the commission and who will leave. There is also election agitation in the European Parliament. Nobody thinks about anything else. So what’s being said about Turkey?

Turkey is not on Brussel’s agenda.

And despite Sarkozy’s and Merkel’s attachments, a "privileged partnership" is not being argued about. Maybe some people carry words around as to what France and Germany want to do but there is not interest in general.

I might summarize Turkey’s position as follows:

France objects to Turkey becoming a full member in the classical sense. It does not want negotiations to cease but prolong them as long as possible. Germany too has serious doubts about Turkey’s full membership but despite that it does not want negotiations to cease. Berlin does not want to lose the Privileged Partnership ember. On the contrary, it plans to keep it alive and put it on the table if need be.

Austria behaves extremely suspicious. Contrary to general belief, Cyprus and Greece are not in favor of a ceasing of negotiations. And if they obtain what they want, then they won’t object to Ankara’s full membership.

Apart from the above, namely 22 countries support Turkey as well. They don’t want negotiations to slow down but to continue at the necessary speed. This means those who support Turkey are in the majority. No matter whom you talk to in the European Commission, you’ll receive the same response:

"É You’ll strengthen the hand of those who support you the faster you pass reforms. That is why you should listen more to recommendations of your friends and take action. É"

Negotiations continue as of now but it looks difficult to obtain any result.

So what is going to happen?

The commission is not in favor of dramatizing the situation. After all, they know that they are responsible for the Cyrus issue coming this far. The general expectation is that the commission issues a report and negotiations gain a new chance.

There is no mention of temporary suspension of negotiations. Everybody knows that such a decision would mean a closing of EU doors for Turkey and they don’t want that to happen. Of course, we closely need to watch elections in the European Parliament this week.

For, the outcome will influence negotiations with Turkey. When asking Brussels about Turkey, you’ll encounter two interesting identifications.

For one it is the impression about the AKP. According to this, the government has lost its glamour and excitement. They take it slow and don’t realize reforms or don’t want to realize them.

Erdoğan is not yet wiped out from EU books but questions regarding him increase progressively.

On the other hand Brussels is very pleased that Egemen Bağış has been appointed as head negotiator.

The number of those saying, "Finally, we found a formal Turkish authority who visits Brussels often" is fairly high. We in fact had a presence problem and Bağış eliminated it.

Of course, Bağış won’t be able to do it all by himself and the prime minister holds the key. And he does not take action for unique reasons or does not want to do so.

In this case all eyes are turned to Davutoğlu. The foreign minister has eliminated all suspicion regarding the EU issue. And his statement in the monthly KRİTER is very clear about that.

Will he be able to convince the prime minister?