2009: A turning point in relations

Whenever our prime minister meets EU authorities and whenever our foreign minister meets with EU ministers there is always the same complaint.

"É The European Community treats Turkey differently. It exhibits an extremely slow approach É "

Ankara is very uncomfortable.

Attention has been drawn to the Commission slowly scanning paragraphs to be added soon. The inadequacy of the new negotiation topics and constantly appearing political barriers frankly disincline Turkey.

Turkey, stating this case, says that Brussels is the reason for the slow down in negotiations.

If we were to take a look at the EU front, they blame Turkey for slowing things down.

This sentence is often heard "É the AKP administration neglected the reforms. We lost last year because of elections. 2008 was lost because of the presidential elections and AKP’s court case at the Constitutional CourtÉ there are big reforms that need to be implemented. But the administration has no such desireÉ"

What’s even more important is that in some capital cities Turkey’s EU target is being questioned for the first time. The general impression is along the lines of the AKP not being as ambitious for full membership as it was in 2004 and even started to drink in the idea of remaining as a "prospective candidate country."

In simple phrase, there is a slow down but in regards to who is the source of this; everybody throws the ball at each other. A race is being done in this regard. The most important process takes place during the period from the beginning of 2009 and year-end. The below list will show how relations will be affected.

The EU Commission will change
Commission is protecting and watching over candidate countries like Turkey. On the outside there might not be a difference between the Commission and the Council. However, the commission is acting on behalf of the council and strives for full membership of the candidate country. So for example, the full membership of Turkey would be a success of the commission. In this context, members of the Commission are very important. It is a huge advantage if the attitude of the commissioners is positive toward Turkey’s full membership. Today’s commission consists of names, like especially commissioner Rehn who is responsible for the expansion, and Commission President Barosso and former enlargement commissioner Verheugen, who all know and support Turkey. By the time the Commission changes in 2009 we don’t know whom we will confront. With commissioners who have an adverse view on Turkey, we will have a hard time.

Parliament elections will take place
European Parliament elections will distress relations between Turkey and Europe. The shortest way to win votes is to attack Turkey, considering allegations that Turkey is not European we can conclude that European members of the Parliament will do whatever they can.

A verdict date is approaching for Cyprus
Finally, the last and foremost subject, Turkish ports opening for Cypriot Greek ships. You’ll remember, that a time until December of 2009 when the EU heads of state summit takes place was granted for the opening of the Turkish ports to Greek commercial ships. When by December 2009 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Greek Republic have not come to an agreement or Turkey has not delivered its obligations within the frame of customs union, the EU Council could suspend relations all together.

Ways are being sought to overcome constipation Reality is that neither the EU is thinking about changing its attitude nor any effort is being made by the AKP administration to accelerate reforms in order to surpass the constipation in relations.

In situations like these new scenarios are being produced. A trial balloon is being thrown and reactions waited upon.

In this sense a "gradual membership" formula has been dropped into the EU corridors. The first balloon was dropped by Kadri Gürsel in his article in Milliyet to be summarized as:

"If it would take too much time to admit the whole of Turkey into the EU and for the EU to assimilate Turkey as a large county then we should do this gradually starting with the most possible and functional areas É"

Gürsel explains this point of view, which arises from institutions with European based ideas that participated in the last EDAM (Economy and Foreign Politics Research Center) meeting in Bodrum:

"Taking into view that two mutual areas of cooperation wanted on both parts, Turkey and EU, one being energy and the other being defense and security É the formula for the defense and security dimension will function like this: Turkey will first enter the EU in regards to the defense and security dimension and will have all the authorities of a full member limited to this area É

It was stressed during the meeting that a gradual membership is not to be confused with a privileged partnership. A privileged partnership represents a full membership but a gradual membership is an intermediate stage on the way to full membership.

A gradual membership is an idea supposed to keep the process alive but needs much discussion É EU’s legal structure does not allow for a gradual membership to pass. But let’s not forget that all transformation starts at the level of an idea."

Kadri Gürsel is right. Especially in Europe these kinds of scenarios start at an idea level and if everybody embraces it, a legal cover will follow.

To tell the truth, this is a very dangerous formula É but as long as Ankara does not react it won’t get rid of these kinds of formulas.