Turkey-US: Back to Clinton times

Obama’s election victory has no doubt led to a wave of optimism in every corner of the world, leading at times to euphoria. Independent of the candidate himself, any democratic victory would have been greeted with joy by those outside of America, after suffering from Bush’s eight-year long administration which has given so much damage to peace.

It would be wrong however to tie the optimism to the joy of getting finally rid of a Republican administration, alone. Obama’s foreign policy vision also feeds the optimism prevailing in the world, an optimism that is also relevant for the future of Turkish-American relations.

The general conviction is that both sides have enjoyed better relations under republican administrations than democratic administrations. But the world changed, so did the United States and Turkey. In the recent past, while Turkish-American relations witnessed one of its brightest periods under the democratic Clinton administration, it has seen many serious crises under the republican Bush administration.

If Obama is able to put his vision into force and obviously if Ankara will be able to read that vision properly, then by the first quarter of the Obama administration, relations could reach a level of strategic partnership based on mutual interest and cooperation.

Obama’s foreign policy priorities cover a geography to which Turkey is adjacent. In addition, Obama’s vision to be part of the solution rather than the problem, using peaceful means rather than the threat of the use of force, overlaps with Turkey’s own regional vision. No doubt the new administration will listen more carefully to what Turkey has to say, since it has to cooperate with it in order to overcome deadlock on the world’s most imminent headaches, Iran and Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Obama will undoubtedly be more sympathetic to Iraqi Kurds’ aspirations and demands. But an administration seeking to leave Iraq as soon as possible will soon realize it cannot fulfil that aim by alienating Turks and Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites.

Obviously there will be problems that will upset conservative circles in Turkey. The new administration will have less tolerance for human rights violations, be it torture or limitations on freedom of expression. Minorities’ rights with particular attention to the Greek community’s request to open the Halki seminary school, will be back on the agenda of bilateral relations.

We will start hearing messages calling for humanitarian efforts to reconcile the local population rather than reverting to military measures, when it comes to the Kurdish problem. All of these were on the table during Clinton times, but have not obstructed the strategic partnership.

Instead of reactionary reflexes, Turkey should be open to these calls, while the Obama administration should recall that too much pressure could backfire. It should not forget that Turkey undertook democratization reforms at a time when United States had not made an issue of it and when European countries were moving in the opposite direction, limiting certain freedoms in order to better combat terrorism after 9/11 attacks.

And when it comes to Obama’s pledge to recognize World War I killings of Armenians by the Ottoman hands, as genocide; there is no need to panic. The Turkish-Armenian rapprochement following the football diplomacy will make it more difficult for the Armenian diaspora in the United States to exert pressure on the administration.

In addition, an administration that has the peaceful resolution of problems at the center of its policy, cannot dare torpedo the reconciliation process between Armenia and Turkey, by taking a step which will definitely have the consequence of erupting the dialogue.