Solution in Cyprus could deter a crisis with EU

The sound of drums is sweetest from afar. Most probably the sound of the alarm bells have not reached Foreign Minister Ali Babacan who was preparing to hold an official visit to Mexico during bayram.

Indeed, he made an official visit to Mexico during bayram to underline the importance his government is giving to this country.

Probably, the Mexicans were a little bit puzzled because the message the visit carries contradicts the fact that the government has left the post of the Turkish ambassador vacant for the past six months; certainly not a sign of a country who pretends to attach importance to the bilateral relations. It seems that the minister preferred to go all the way across the Atlantic "to win the hearts of Mexicans," instead of going at pains of issuing the ambassadorial degree which is long overdue.

At any rate, while our sensitive minister was packing his bags for a long touristÑ oopsÑ official visit to Mexico, a group of EU experts were busy trying to figure out what should be done so that Turkish-EU relations won’t hit the wall next year, in two separate meetings, one organized by the support of the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, or TEPAV and the Open Society Institute, and the other by Sabancı University.

As the majority of the participants appeared suspicious of the ruling Justice and Development’s Party, or AKP’s commitment to the EU vision and seemed to have lost hope of the revival of the reform process, the most interesting outcome I came out from these brain storming is that we should be pinning our hopes to Cyprus to keep the EU train on track.

A solution to the Cyprus problem will open the way for EU whereas failure will further contribute to a major crisis that will erupt by autumn 2009, the deadline given to Turkey, to include Greek Cyprus in the implementation of the customs union agreement. The EU had decided to review the negotiation process by 2009 if Turkey does not open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot shipping.

This is precisely why the Turkish side is so eager to move faster on the talks in the island to reach a solution by June 2009. Obviously, the exact contrary suits the Greek Cypriots. They prefer to drag their feet so as to reach autumn 2009 without a solution with the expectation that under pressure from EU, the Turkish side will be more conciliatory. A rather mistaken expectation. Because unless the AKP picks up the reform process, the accession negotiations will come to a stand-still anyway. There won’t be any reason for AKP to bow to pressure since the EU will be lacking the means to exert pressure.

Washington to step into Cyprus talks
At any rate, it is obvious it will be very difficult to reach a solution with the existence of these two opposing tendencies in the island. This is precisely why there is a general expectation that the United States will step in, shortly after the Obama team takes its place. It will not come to me as a surprise if Washington will join hands with the United Nations, Britain and Sweden which will take the rotating presidency of the EU on the second half of 2009 to give an impetus to the bicommunal talks.

It is clearly to the advantage of the Turkish side to have the Swedes who are in favor of Turkish accession holding the EU presidency at a critical juncture. The Greek Cypriots will try to mobilize the French against this front which it will perceive as "pro Turk." While the French and the Austrians and the like might want to seize this opportunity to strike a permanent blow to Turkish-EU relations, it will not be so difficult for the U.S. administration under the leadership of Barack Obama to convince the French and its allies.