NATO summit poses dilemmas for Turkey

The first issue is now officially on the table as the French Parliament last week approved the country’s return to the alliance’s military wing. French President Nicolas Sarkozy is expected to announce this officially in a letter to the secretary general of NATO and in calls to some alliance members.

Within the alliance, no one seems to raise an objection to this Ğ except Turkey. Ankara does not object to the French decision to return to the fold. On the contrary, if one looks at the official rhetoric, Turkey should be happy to see one of Europe’s strongest and most professional armies contribute to NATO again. The Turkish objection is rather technical, but obviously politically motivated.

Although Turkey is not officially linking TurkeyĞEU relations with FrenchĞNATO relations, Turkish officials have been telling the French that public opinion in Turkey has made the connection. They have told Paris that since France is seen as one of the countries blocking Turkish entry to the EU, the public will have a hard time understanding if its government consents to the French return to NATO. Basically, Ankara is implying that Paris should make a gesture of easing its position on Turkey by lifting its "unofficial veto" on opening talks in at least one or two accession chapters.

However, it looks like the French will not be backing down on their position regarding Turkey’s EU accession. They are not open to negotiation. It also seems unlikely that Turkey will be able to generate support on this issue from its allies. Hence it might be highly difficult to see Turkey using all in its capacity to spoil the enthusiasm of the French.

On the issue of NATO’s next secretary general, however, Turkey has a stronger case to make. Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen seems to have increased his chance at the position with the U.S. decision to support him. But Turkey’s objection to Rasmussen is only partially due to the country’s strained relations with Denmark. Obviously Turkey resents the Rasmussen government’s position on letting the pro-PKK channel RojĞTV broadcast from Denmark. But this will not suffice to convince alliance members to opt for another candidate. Rasmussen’s handling of the cartoon crisis in 2006, however, is a relevant and stronger argument with which Turkey could mobilize support within NATO for its position.

During the crisis that erupted after the publication of a cartoon depicting Prophet Mohammad with a bomb in his turban, Rasmussen clearly ignored the sensitivities of the Muslim world. At a time when NATO is planning to increase its role in Afghanistan, how can Rasmussen go to Afghanistan or Pakistan as NATO’s representative?

It is quite clear that the EU does not want to back the candidates from Bulgaria and Poland. While the Bulgarian candidate is seen as not up to the task, the Polish candidate is opposed because the EU is loathe to have a known anti-Russian at the head of the alliance. Therefore, the European bloc will probably rally around Rasmussen. But despite this increasing support, one should expect Turkey to lobby hard against him. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan has already conveyed his country’s concerns to the alliance’s current secretary general. If Turkey remains the sole dissenter within the 26-nation alliance on the conditions of French reentry to NATO’s military wing, it is hard to see the government insisting on its position. But if the vote on the candidacy of Rasmussen remains 25 to 1, it will not come as a surprise to see Erdoğan veto the Danish premier, even despite advice to the contrary from the Foreign Ministry.