Welcoming Clinton

The trauma opened in the bilateral relations with the March 1, 2003, Parliamentary rejection was long "officially" replaced with recourse to the traditional allied relations and security cooperation, particularly in the fight against terrorism and re-energized support of Washington for Turkey’s European Union accession bid. Yet, the distrust created by the March 1 Parliamentary rejection and the punitive actions taken by the U.S. against Turkey, particularly through overstepping the red lines of Ankara in Iraq. Though ever since the 2007 resumption of security cooperation against terrorism and particularly intelligence sharing considered crucial in Turkey’s fight against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, terrorist gang presence in northern Iraq there has been a decline in the rampant anti-Americanism in Turkish society, it has to be conceded that the post-Iraq invasion concerns and resulting tensions in the Turkish society against the U.S. policies in the region are continuing to linger.

Obviously, the anti-Americanism in Turkey was much different than anti-Americanism elsewhere and could perhaps be best described as "anti-Bush-ism." The change of administration in the U.S. could serve as a booster in reinstituting the lost confidence dimension in the bilateral relations. Indeed, President Barack Hussein Obama making his first presidential call to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas; indications that he would work for a lasting peace in the Middle East; assertions that he would withdraw American troops from Iraq; declarations that U.S. presence in Afghanistan would not last forever; declared commitment for a just and lasting peace on Cyprus and repeated assertions by both Oboma and other leading members of the new U.S. administration that Turkey’s leadership was needed for a resolution of the regional problems all indicate that change for the better is in the pipeline for Turkish-American relations.

Contentious issues

Some important contentious issues that have the potential of spoiling the atmosphere in ties are the election-time commitment undertaken by Oboma to recognize the 1915 killings of Armenians by the former Ottoman Empire as "genocide", claims of rising anti-Semitism in Turkey and the AKP administration’s relations with Syria, Iran and the Palestinian Hamas terrorist gang.

Even though there are indications that the Oboma administration may not take up the "genocide" issue this year because of the current rapprochement efforts between Turkey and Armenia, it won’t be fortune telling to say Turkish-American relations will succumb to an unprecedented crisis if the issue is taken up by Congress or if Oboma in his April 24 address uses the word "genocide."

A third added element of discontent might be the forthcoming Turkish moves at the United Nations Security Council to postpone by one year the arrest order issued against Sudan’s Omar al-Beshir by the International Criminal Court on charges that he committed genocide in the region of Darfur. Relations with Hamas, Iran and the Bashir of Sudan are important for the AKP administration’s neo-Ottomanist proactive foreign policy. Relations with Bashir are important for Ankara’s Africa opening, while ties with both Hamas, Syria and Iran are considered by Ankara as a requirement of its regional peacemaking role. Paradoxically while the proactive foreign policy of the AKP government (particularly its role in Syria-Israel dialogue) is appreciated by the U.S., as well as the EU, such relationships developed by the AKP are considered as well as signs of Turkey tilting towards East, and radicalism.

The recently released human rights report of the State Department (that bitterly accused the AKP government of oppressing the Turkish media and restricting freedom of expression and complained of a surge in torture, deaths in detention houses and in prisons) will be yet another contentious subject that the AKP government will raise in talks with Clinton.

Hillary Clinton will definitely have some tough talk in Ankara.