Transformation in AKP?

“He came like Obama, but turned into some sort of Bush,” said one of the Islamist pundits in revealing the fight, which apparently continued discreetly for some time, in the Islamist and neo-liberal powerbase of the AKP. Joining the battle, a neo-liberal pundit commented that Erdoğan himself has started liquidating the AKP, and has started converting the party into an “etatist” one. Another did not stop there and accused the prime minister of “betraying the hopes” of Kurds, liberals, Islamists and democrats by aligning himself and the government with the military and the nationalists, and adopting a language even fascists would not dare use in today’s Turkey.

Not only the etatists, secularists, Kemalists, nationalists and patriots are criticizing the prime minister, but the Islamists, neo-liberals and Kurdish nationalists have joined in the “bashing Erdoğan” campaign. Indeed, the Islamists and neo-liberals are attacking the premier far more fiercely than the traditional opposition.

Irrespective of whether it was a product of the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s “corruption vendetta” campaign against the ruling party, or the differences between Erdoğan and himself over the way the Kurdish issue was handled, the resignation of Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat from both the number two position in the AKP administration and membership of the powerful party executive, it was a public manifestation and perhaps the visible tip of the iceberg, of problems within the AKP and in its powerbase.

That is, in analyzing the departure of Fırat from the number two position and his replacement by Abdülkadir Aksu, also a Kurd but who has spent time as a governor and interior minister in many governments and always in harmony with the establishment, it might be useful to try to find an answer to the question, “Why has Erdoğan become a target of attacks in the allegiant media?” and to take a retrospective look to find when this parting may have begun.

Turning point
The Oct. 3 ambush in broad daylight of the separatist gang on the border military outpost in Aktütün, in the Şemdinli area of the Hakkari province, killing 15 soldiers and sending strong shockwaves across the nation, could perhaps be the landmark date, while others might prefer to think of the June summit of Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ, Land Forces commander at the time, and Erdoğan as the “turning point.” Within days of that meeting, Başbuğ became the top commander, 10 days later the AKP was “salvaged” by the Constitutional Court, partly because of Başbuğ’s character, since then the military has not publicly criticized the government.

But, the most important development was the strong support the prime minister gave to the military when he endorsed a rather harsh statement by Başbuğ against the allegiant media alleging that intelligence deficiency was the main reason behind the Aktütün ambush and its losses. A second important development was the rather harshly-worded statement issued by the Prime Ministry denying reports in the allegiant media regarding the first-ever participation of top commanders in a cabinet meeting, and the briefing they gave to ministers. That was the first time that the AKP government publicly and in rather offensive language, declared the allegiant media reports on the briefing “totally wrong and unfounded.”

Thus, in a way the prime minister provided a strong government shield to the military at a time when it was under attack by the media, which until that date were so loyal to the government. Then Erdoğan was placed at the bulls eye of neo-liberal media outlets, while the Islamist media still withheld strong criticism of the premier.

The visit of the premier to some southeastern cities, his “love or leave” statements there, and a subsequent speech in connection with a group of people who chased demonstrating ethnic Kurds holding rifles, in which he labeled these actions inappropriate, but said “people may take their own defensive measures,” implying such actions may be legitimate, produced an outburst of criticism in the independent media. But, this time, the allegiant media were also critical of the premier’s attitude.

The resignation, or sacking, of Dengir Fırat and his replacement with Aksu, therefore, was just the latest episode of an AKP drifting closer to the “military option” in dealing with the Kurdish problem.

Is this a real drift, or just a cosmetic policy change Erdoğan hopes will gain a better local elections performance? What is for sure, however, although we may not like the comparison, it is becoming difficult not to acknowledge the “Erdoğan came in like Obama, but became some sort of Bush” analysis.
 
(Yusuf Kanlı can be contacted at ykanli@hotmail.com or yusufkanli@gmail.com)