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Seven topics of Turkey-US negotiations
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Extremely important processes have started with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Ankara. Important steps were taken in matters mentioned below. It will take time to obtain results but we can easily say that a great period of time has started in which "give and take" or "bargaining" will take place. Within time new developments will be seen and for sure new "commodities" will be added to the transaction process but I will share with you what I have observed so far.
Armenia: The Obama administration promised Armenians during his election period to support genocide allegations. Now he is expecting a gesture from Ankara in order to back out of his commitments. If for example the border would be opened up Erivan would be pleased and the postponement of the genocide issue would not lead to a loss in prestige for Obama.
The problem here is whether or not Turkey will take this step. This will be the point where the transaction process will encounter a knot.
Afghanistan: The United States is caught in the Afghanistan issue. The U.S. requests military support from its NATO allies. And regarding this issue Turkey is the most comfortable country. The governments of Germany and Netherlands sending military support pave the way for reactions in public whereas cross border duties of the brave Turkish soldier are a source of national pride. This is Turkey’s most important joker card to be played in almost every hand.
Cyprus: In this matter Turkey is again constricted. As long as the Greek Cypriots do not lift embargos applied toward the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or KKTC, Turkey will not open its ports to Greek Cypriot ships. And as long as ports are closed membership negotiations between Turkey and the EU do not progress. For this is the reason for eight subjects to be temporarily put on hold. If Washington manages to convince the Greek Cypriots to lift the embargo then the way will be paved for negotiations and the probability for a solution to the Cyprus issue will increase.
Energy: The natural gas pipeline called Nabucco carries energy to Europe via Turkey and is an extremely important alternative to Russian gas. The realization of this project will provide Turkey with an important income source, diversification of its own energy resources and thus strengthen Turkey in the eyes of the EU. But the realization of this project in the lines of Turkey depends on support by the United States. If Washington approves of it Ankara’s expectations will be greatly met. This is one more bargaining card of the United States.
MIddle East - Iran: Most of the cards in this issue are held by the United States. If it pleases, it creates space for Turkey or else leaves Turkey outside the game. Turkey’s cards regarding Palestine and Iran are not very strong. But good relations with Hamas give one advantage and another comes from being the only country in the region on good terms with Iran.
But both roles do not matter much other than "easing negotiations." Turkey’s real card, which it never used but could create adverse effects, is negative politics. Balance in the region would be disturbed if it tries to follow politics in the lines of opposing Israel and supporting Tehran. This kind of attitude would of course harm the country itself. Nevertheless, this card should receive attention in conducting general bargaining.
Iraq: One of Turkey’s middle sized cards in the long run is contributing to Iraq’s stability and supporting Baghdad. In the short run it is granting permission to the U.S. military, which is due to leave the region in 2010, to use ground, air and sea routes in Turkey. Ankara signaled very positively regarding this matter. Babacan gave the green light and showed that it will play its card in favor of Washington.
Northern Iraq and the PKK: Turkey’s biggest concern is the PKK. The most important card held by the United States is its strength to get the PKK to do anything through northern Iraq.
Washington wants Ankara to be on good terms with Barzani and not push him around, to take some steps toward the Kurdish issue in the country and toward the PKK. Bargaining revolves around these "steps." If Ankara takes these steps then Washington will be able to put its "plan to elimination the PKK" into effect. There is no more space left today. But I’ll take up this subject in more detail tomorrow.
The problem here is whether or not Turkey will take this step. This will be the point where the transaction process will encounter a knot.
Afghanistan: The United States is caught in the Afghanistan issue. The U.S. requests military support from its NATO allies. And regarding this issue Turkey is the most comfortable country. The governments of Germany and Netherlands sending military support pave the way for reactions in public whereas cross border duties of the brave Turkish soldier are a source of national pride. This is Turkey’s most important joker card to be played in almost every hand.
Cyprus: In this matter Turkey is again constricted. As long as the Greek Cypriots do not lift embargos applied toward the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or KKTC, Turkey will not open its ports to Greek Cypriot ships. And as long as ports are closed membership negotiations between Turkey and the EU do not progress. For this is the reason for eight subjects to be temporarily put on hold. If Washington manages to convince the Greek Cypriots to lift the embargo then the way will be paved for negotiations and the probability for a solution to the Cyprus issue will increase.
Energy: The natural gas pipeline called Nabucco carries energy to Europe via Turkey and is an extremely important alternative to Russian gas. The realization of this project will provide Turkey with an important income source, diversification of its own energy resources and thus strengthen Turkey in the eyes of the EU. But the realization of this project in the lines of Turkey depends on support by the United States. If Washington approves of it Ankara’s expectations will be greatly met. This is one more bargaining card of the United States.
MIddle East - Iran: Most of the cards in this issue are held by the United States. If it pleases, it creates space for Turkey or else leaves Turkey outside the game. Turkey’s cards regarding Palestine and Iran are not very strong. But good relations with Hamas give one advantage and another comes from being the only country in the region on good terms with Iran.
But both roles do not matter much other than "easing negotiations." Turkey’s real card, which it never used but could create adverse effects, is negative politics. Balance in the region would be disturbed if it tries to follow politics in the lines of opposing Israel and supporting Tehran. This kind of attitude would of course harm the country itself. Nevertheless, this card should receive attention in conducting general bargaining.
Iraq: One of Turkey’s middle sized cards in the long run is contributing to Iraq’s stability and supporting Baghdad. In the short run it is granting permission to the U.S. military, which is due to leave the region in 2010, to use ground, air and sea routes in Turkey. Ankara signaled very positively regarding this matter. Babacan gave the green light and showed that it will play its card in favor of Washington.
Northern Iraq and the PKK: Turkey’s biggest concern is the PKK. The most important card held by the United States is its strength to get the PKK to do anything through northern Iraq.
Washington wants Ankara to be on good terms with Barzani and not push him around, to take some steps toward the Kurdish issue in the country and toward the PKK. Bargaining revolves around these "steps." If Ankara takes these steps then Washington will be able to put its "plan to elimination the PKK" into effect. There is no more space left today. But I’ll take up this subject in more detail tomorrow.
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