The unlucky mediator

Shortly afterward, war broke out between Russia and Georgia over, ostensibly, "matters of the Caucasus." The same very important Turks also "mediated" peace talks between Israel and Syria for over a year, first covertly, then overtly. Just when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan (and, of course, the unofficial foreign minister for the Middle East, Ahmet Davutoglu) thought they all could soon be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, Israel’s Gaza offensive came. Bad luck É

But there was still some window of opportunity for Turkish mediation. This time for "hudna," or truce, between Israel and Hamas. Once again, big speeches were made on the "Turkish peace-making," big promises floated in the air. Then all of a sudden we learned that Turkey had to withdraw from that role too. And "withdrawn" can always be a euphemism for "pushed out."

Caucasus, Israel-Syria, Israel-Hamas may have failed, but once one is determined to win at face value as the "official peace-maker by appointment to his majesty," nothing can stop him. Hey, look eastward! Yes, there is Iran! Why not? The Nobel Peace Prize could be just around the corner. With a little bit of effort, we can broker a historic peace deal between the United States and Iran. Over the past few weeks, newsrooms were flooded with stories containing the words "Turkey, Iran, the United States, mediation, mediator and peace."

The Turks were proud to read in newspapers lines that began with, "President Abdullah Gül told the Iranians É" and filled with all possible epilogues that meant only one thing: Neo-Ottoman Turkey preached to Iran on how best to build dialogue with the United States, and the Mullahs in Tehran shyly nodded in gestures which meant, "If it be your will É" But then all of a sudden President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad abruptly told journalists that Iran did not need any other country’s services as a mediator. But we all should pray that the Turkish mediation between the United States and Iran ended this way. Recalling what happened in Georgia last summer I always feared it could end up with U.S. military aircraft bombing potential nuclear sites in Iran. That was a near thing É

Now the Filipinos must watch out. It was revealed that Mr. Erdogan’s government had been mediating between the Manila government and the Moro National Liberation Front, a Muslim guerrilla organization. Inevitably, I fear some violent incident in the Philippines or an all-out offensive by the Filipino army against the Muslim separatists.

God permit, that too failing, Mr. Erdogan and his men would have to spread a world map on a desk and find some nice area of conflict for which they could mediate or facilitate. They can always try their chances at some or all of U.S.-Venezuela, U.S.-Cuba, the two Koreas, Kashmir, China-Taiwan, China-Nepal, India-Pakistan and Sri Lanka-the Tamils. Fortunately, this is not a small list. It can keep the AKP boys busy for a few more years with even bigger speeches on the merits of Turkish mediation. As for the possible casualties in any of these conflicting terrains É it will be a risk worth taking. In any case, they should accept Turkish mediation at their own peril.

And mind you all those flashy American pleasantries that make us ask ourselves, "Is America rediscovering Turkey’s face value?" have too little to do with the miraculous Turkish mediation history. They are rather about a graceful American exit from Iraq (with an emphasize on the broader use of the Incirlik military base), stability especially in northern Iraq in the post-exit phase, more Turkish contribution to Afghanistan (excluding combat troops), and a historic hand-shake with Armenia. It’s good news for Mr. Erdogan: The unlucky mediator may soon turn into a lucky helper.