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Why the ’change’ in northern Cyprus?
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In the last parliamentary elections in Cyprus, in February 2005, there was a cliffhanger result. The collective vote of the left was slightly more than the collective conservative vote, but 50 seats of Parliament was divided equally between the two ideological groups, making it impossible to establish a one ideological block government.
Thus, the socialist Republican Turks’ Party, or CTP, which climaxed its electoral support and came first in the 2005 elections with 45 percent of the vote, established a two way coalition with the center-right Democrat Party, or DP, of Serdar Denktaş, the son of first President Rauf Denktaş.
In that 2005 vote, the strongest conservative party, the National Unity Party, or UBP, received a humiliating defeat with 31 percent of the vote. But worse was in store for the UBP. A few months later, in April of the same year, UBP leader Derviş Eroğlu received only 22 percent of the vote, while CTP leader Mehmet Ali Talat scored a straight victory and became the successor of President Denktaş with 55 percent electoral support, while Ferdi Sabit Soyer became the CTP leader and the prime minister. That defeat triggered strong unrest in the UBP, Eroğlu stepped down from leadership and was replaced by former Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu.
The increase in the CTP’s popular support, which started with the December 2003 parliamentary elections, in which the socialist party for the first time in its history had exceeded 35 percent electoral support, started to take a downward trend when, with alleged guidance and support from the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government in Ankara, some DP and UBP deputies resigned from their parties. They established the Freedom and Reform Party, or ÖRP, and the DP was replaced in the two-way coalition with the ÖRP. For the first time since the 1973 election of Rauf Denktaş as Turkish Cypriot leader, no Denktaş was present any longer in the northern Cypriot administration.
The way the ÖRP was established was not appreciated by large segments of society and a perception started to spread that the CTP-led government and Talat would surrender at the talks to Greek Cypriots. The start of the latest talks process as well as Talat agreeing to "single citizenship and single sovereignty" demands of the Greek Cypriot side at the beginning stage of the talks further cemented that perception. In a paradoxical manner, while the majority of Turkish Cypriots remained committed to a resolution, support for the talks persistently declined in public opinion polls. People who started to think from 2003 on that right wing politicians were unwilling to have a compromise deal, started to complain about too many compromises being made by Talat without getting the Greek Cypriot side move even an inch on fundamental Turkish Cypriot demand of full political equality of the two peoples in a future federation of "two equal constituent states." The latest polls indicate that if a referendum were held on a deal this Sunday, more than 65 percent might say "no."
The second biggest reason for the decline was continued rampant complaints of nepotism and corruption in administration that Talat and Soyer portrayed in the past as illnesses of conservative politics. People started to say "newcomers" were even worse than the "old team."
The third biggest reason was the growing economic difficulties; despite all their pledges Talat and the CTP could not even ease the international isolation chains on northern Cyprus. Naturally people did not bother with excuses that such pledges were made because the EU or the U.S. made such promises before the 2004 referendum but did not live up to their words later. The success in boosting per capita income in the north from around $7,000 in 2003 to around $15,000 dollars in 2007, thanks to the "casino industry" and the construction boom, took a sharp decline in 2008 also because of the property cases at the European Court of Human Rights.
If the UBP cannot come to power alone, the parliamentary arithmetic that will be produced by the polls might help the CTP remain in power with a three-way coalition because of the "UBP allergy" of almost all other parties. Yet, a right-left grand coalition of the UBP and the CTP might offer a golden opportunity for a compromise settlement on the island and much needed bitter economic reforms.
In that 2005 vote, the strongest conservative party, the National Unity Party, or UBP, received a humiliating defeat with 31 percent of the vote. But worse was in store for the UBP. A few months later, in April of the same year, UBP leader Derviş Eroğlu received only 22 percent of the vote, while CTP leader Mehmet Ali Talat scored a straight victory and became the successor of President Denktaş with 55 percent electoral support, while Ferdi Sabit Soyer became the CTP leader and the prime minister. That defeat triggered strong unrest in the UBP, Eroğlu stepped down from leadership and was replaced by former Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu.
The increase in the CTP’s popular support, which started with the December 2003 parliamentary elections, in which the socialist party for the first time in its history had exceeded 35 percent electoral support, started to take a downward trend when, with alleged guidance and support from the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government in Ankara, some DP and UBP deputies resigned from their parties. They established the Freedom and Reform Party, or ÖRP, and the DP was replaced in the two-way coalition with the ÖRP. For the first time since the 1973 election of Rauf Denktaş as Turkish Cypriot leader, no Denktaş was present any longer in the northern Cypriot administration.
The way the ÖRP was established was not appreciated by large segments of society and a perception started to spread that the CTP-led government and Talat would surrender at the talks to Greek Cypriots. The start of the latest talks process as well as Talat agreeing to "single citizenship and single sovereignty" demands of the Greek Cypriot side at the beginning stage of the talks further cemented that perception. In a paradoxical manner, while the majority of Turkish Cypriots remained committed to a resolution, support for the talks persistently declined in public opinion polls. People who started to think from 2003 on that right wing politicians were unwilling to have a compromise deal, started to complain about too many compromises being made by Talat without getting the Greek Cypriot side move even an inch on fundamental Turkish Cypriot demand of full political equality of the two peoples in a future federation of "two equal constituent states." The latest polls indicate that if a referendum were held on a deal this Sunday, more than 65 percent might say "no."
The second biggest reason for the decline was continued rampant complaints of nepotism and corruption in administration that Talat and Soyer portrayed in the past as illnesses of conservative politics. People started to say "newcomers" were even worse than the "old team."
The third biggest reason was the growing economic difficulties; despite all their pledges Talat and the CTP could not even ease the international isolation chains on northern Cyprus. Naturally people did not bother with excuses that such pledges were made because the EU or the U.S. made such promises before the 2004 referendum but did not live up to their words later. The success in boosting per capita income in the north from around $7,000 in 2003 to around $15,000 dollars in 2007, thanks to the "casino industry" and the construction boom, took a sharp decline in 2008 also because of the property cases at the European Court of Human Rights.
If the UBP cannot come to power alone, the parliamentary arithmetic that will be produced by the polls might help the CTP remain in power with a three-way coalition because of the "UBP allergy" of almost all other parties. Yet, a right-left grand coalition of the UBP and the CTP might offer a golden opportunity for a compromise settlement on the island and much needed bitter economic reforms.
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