Predictability problem...

Partly because of the approaching March 2009 local polls, domestic political tension is increasing in the country. The prime minister, perhaps because he is frustrated with the reports of some pollsters claiming that there is a sharp decrease – as much as 15 percentage points – in the public support for his party, or is upset with accusations that he has given up his reformist mindset and has become a conservative trying to mend fences with the establishment – that is, the claims that “he came like an Obama but became some sort of a Bush” – has become very aggressive.

He is yelling at everyone – even those people who were very close to him and indeed have been his die-hard compatriots until today in the struggle against the “conservative secularist Kemalists” – and in that aggressive mode has even gone to the extent of providing legitimacy for people taking justice in their hands saying that people fed up with violent Kurdish demonstrations may take their own defensive measures, though he would not approve it.

Corruption hurting AKP
Corruption claims against Şaban Dişli and Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, the two deputy chairmen of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and their subsequent resignation from their positions as well as from the Party Executive and allegations of corruption in several AKP-held municipalities were frustrating developments for the premier and his party as well. Yet, as the elections approach it would be just normal perhaps to see a radical increase in those claims.

Already, there are claims that main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, parliamentary group deputy chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – who is believed to have forced the two AKP deputy to chairmen step down with the verified corruption claims he brought against them, though unlike the Şaban Dişli case, in the resignation of Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat, disagreements between him and Erdoğan on the Kurdish policy is believed to have played a greater role than the corruption claims – has completed “research” into some other very important corruption cases and would reveal them one by one as the election date approaches.

Partly because of the approaching local elections and their fear that they may lose some of their strongholds – like Diyarbakır, Batman and Tunceli towns in southeastern Anatolia – the Social Democracy Party, or DTP, has started provoking people – with the lie that life-time imprisoned separatist chieftain Abdullah Öcalan of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, was beaten up by prison guards – not only in southeast but in some big western Turkish cities, particularly Istanbul, into a civil disobedience campaign and some violent demonstrations.

As if these were not enough, the chief prosecutor of the Court of Appeals has launched an investigation against the AKP, on grounds that it received financial assistance from the Germany-based Deniz Feneri or Lighthouse, Islamist charity foundation. If the prosecutor can verify the claims that AKP indeed received money from Deniz Feneri, under the existing laws prohibiting Turkish political parties from receiving assistance from foreign individuals, organizations or states, the party could face yet another closure case at the Constitutional Court.

Inquiry against Gülen
Last but not least, there are claims that an Ankara prosecutor has launched a fresh inquiry on charges of “establishing an illegal gang” against Fethullah Gülen – the self-exiled “spiritual leader” of the Gülen movement, or the backbone Islamist brotherhood organization supporting political Islam, thus AKP.

With this background in their heads, foreign businessmen and bankers, as well as their Turkish colleagues and partners, are trying to estimate what is in store for Turkey in the days, weeks and months ahead as they complain that Turkey is becoming once again an unpredictable country.

At this time of worsening international economic and financial climate, still refusing to have a new standby deal with the International Monetary Fund, while on the other hand pouring fuel on the fire in the country with adamant statements, yelling at everyone and refusing any sort of tolerance to criticism even from people whose good intentions he is very much aware of, cannot of course be presented as manifestations of statesmanlike behavior.

Whereas, it might be too costly for Turkey to become unpredictable in these difficult times.