Dead-end on Cyprus

Talat is claiming that though he was elected on a pro-settlement platform, his failure to establish a pro-settlement government and entering into a coalition deal with the DIKO or Demokratic Party, of anti-settlement former President Tassos Papadopoulos and the ÖMovement for Social Democracy, or EDEK Ğ also anti-settlement Ğ has made the new Greek Cypriot leader a hostage of the anti-settlement block. "One cannot be pro-settlement and anti-settlement at the same time. Christofias must make up his mind," he has been stressing.

Christofias, on the other hand, is claiming that Talat is unable to negotiate because he has become a puppet of the government in Ankara, and the strong Turkish military. Thus, two months after the start of the latest round of Cyprus talks the two sides are still discussing inconclusively on one topic: Administration and power sharing. Indeed, if the two leaders manage to come out some sort of a workable agreement on that topic, the only other thorny subject before a comprehensive Cyprus settlement will be the future of the 1960 guarantee agreement which gave Turkey, along with Greece and Britain guarantor rights on the island.

Turkish Cypriot Foreign Minister Turgay Avcı was in Ankara last week to host the 25th anniversary reception of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. During the reception and later at his hotel for many hours I found an opportunity to discuss the latest situation at the Cyprus talks process with Avcı. He was very pessimistic; tough he believed the process must be continued. The domestic situation on both sides of the island as well as the international conjecture, he said, require the two leaders to stick to the process. But, was he hopeful that a breakthrough could come one day? He was not.

"I am telling foreign dignitaries that I meet as well. Is there any reason for the internationally recognized, European Union-member government in southern Cyprus compromise from sovereignty, engage in a power sharing deal with Turkish Cypriots and share the state which everyone has been telling them that it is all theirs? They have no motivation for any compromise, put aside the fact that for a comprehensive settlement both sides on the island are required to make some bitter compromisesÉ"

Avcı was right and indeed summarized the crux of the Cyprus problem of our time. Why should Greek Cypriots indeed compromise?

Thus, Greek Cypriots are looking for an alibi to place the responsibility on Talat and relieve themselves from this cumbersome negotiations process. Otherwise, why are Christofias and Talat discussing rotation of the presidency and methodology of electing the president and the vice president for the past two months with no rapprochement between the positions of the two sides on the issue? Strangely enough, while there is no motivation for Greek Cypriots to compromise, with EU’s 2009 evaluation for Turkey approaching and soon a new team will take over administration in the U.S., the Cyprus issue will likely become an even more serious headache for Turkey in the months ahead.

Is Downer plan in the offing?
As patience is running thin on both sides, as well as among those following the talks, strange indications started to emerge. On the one hand Turkish official sources Ğ while they remain totally lull in commenting publicly on the Cyprus talks process Ğ started to hint the probability of Ankara and northern Cyprus accepting UN arbitration, similar to the Annan talks process.

On the other hand, diplomatic sources with insight of the Cyprus "comprehensive" negotiations have started stressing that UN secretary-general’s Cyprus special envoy Australian diplomat Alexander Downer is getting frustrated with the inability of Talat and Christofias to move forward; likely to let them continue the process until after the new U.S. administration takes office and in March may put in front of the leaders a draft comprehensive settlement plan. Downer has reportedly already started putting some ideas together and may start drafting a paper soon.