Clinton’s surprises

But probably none of the political leaders of Turkey were thinking in their wildest dreams that Clinton would be traveling to Ankara for the funeral of the March 1, 2003, "syndrome", would lend an unexpected and strong support to Ankara’s calls for an end to Turkish Cypriot international isolation and would raise the curtain on a new era in Turkish-American relations by announcing that Turkey would be among the places visited on the first European tour by President Barack Hussein Obama.

The Clinton visit, beyond any doubt, reflected a change in perception of Turkey in Washington. Whether that would please the Islamist Justice and Development Party, or AKP, administration of Turkey is of course something else, but Clinton underlined at every opportunity she could that the perception of the Bush administration that Turkey is a "moderate Islamic country" that would be a "role model" for Muslim nations Ğ against the radical Iranian model Ğ has been replaced by a perception of a "democratic and secular republic with an overwhelming Muslim population." Does this mean the "moderate Islamist" AKP has completed its lifecycle in Turkey? It’s too early to make a comment on that yet. Still, such remarks by Clinton underscore the opening of a new climate in the American approach towards Turkey that centers on the respecting of human rights, individual rights, democracy and secular democracy.

The highlight of the Clinton visit indeed was indeed the news that Obama would be visiting Turkey "in a month or so." Commentators immediately started speculating whether Obama would visit Ankara as part of his European tour early in April, or within the framework of the yet-unscheduled visit to the Middle East sometime later. When and as part of which program the visit Ğ which definitely carries the prospect of being the most important diplomatic development for Turkey in 2009 Ğ would take place of course has meaning. Does the Obama administration consider Turkey as part of Europe, or just as a key player in the Middle East?

Obama coming on April 7

Reports from Washington indicate that Obama will be visiting Ankara on April 7 as the last stop of his European tour, which will take him first to London on April 2 for the Group of 20 summit, then to Strasbourg, France, for a NATO summit to be held on April 3 and 4. His third stop will be Prague, for a meeting of European Union leaders on April 5. After that, we are hearing from friends in Washington, he will head to Turkey.

Clinton told the Ankara news conference that the visit was decided while she was flying to Turkey and the timing of it would be set soon. That means the Turkey visit was added to Obama’s already-scheduled European tour. This itself is a revolutionary development as the schedules and itineraries of U.S. presidents are decided upon well in advance, and do not change unless extraordinary situations present themselves. Obviously, not only was the schedule of the European tour of Obama changed, but a very strong message is being given by the new U.S. administration to the EU in support of the Turkey’s EU membership bid. Furthermore, the stress made on the decision of the U.S. and Turkish foreign ministers to work together to lift the international isolation of Turkish Cypriots is both boost to the Cyprus talks and a reminder to the EU that punishing Turkey over Cyprus would be a gross injustice.

Armenian resolution

But, do all these things imply that the threat of the U.S. Congress legislating the contentious so-called Armenian genocide bill this year is over? Well, let’s hear what Foreign Minister Ali Babacan is saying: "I still see a risk. Obama pledged five times during the campaign and even made a written statement that he would take that move. I still see a risk."