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Butterfly or mammoth effect
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In the February 2005 Turkish Cypriot parliamentary elections, many people in the "patriotic front" in the motherland - Turkey - and in the fosterland - the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus - were hoping that the advancement of the socialist Republican Turks’ Party, or CTP, in northern Cyprus and the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, in Turkey would trend downward.
On the contrary, the CTP increased its votes in the 2005 vote to 45 percent, significantly higher than the 35 percent share of it in the December 2003 vote. Consequently, the AKP increased its electoral support to 47 percent in the July 2007 parliamentary elections in Turkey, significantly higher than the 34 percent it got in the November 2002 vote. Thus the "butterfly effect," if there was one, was not at all valid in February 2005.
The change of the atmosphere in northern Cyprus, of course, was not at all a product of a "butterfly effect" if one considered the size and the extraordinary importance of Turkey for Turkish Cypriots. It could be best described as a "mammoth effect." The mammoth Turkey walked to a different political preference, and the quakes created by the walking of the mammoth created a strong political quake in northern Cyprus.
Perhaps, when he started to ponder whether to call for early elections, outgoing socialist Prime Minister Ferdi Sabit Soyer was considering that the increased electoral performance of the ruling AKP in Turkey would have a psychological effect, or yet another mammoth effect, on the Turkish Cypriot electorate and help him change the cliffhanger 25 to 25 seats in balance between the leftist and center-right parties in Parliament and thus help him produce a stronger socialist government. Indeed, if the AKP managed to increase its votes from 34 percent of 2002 elections to 47 percent in the 2007 polls, why wouldn’t the CTP increase its electoral support further than the 45 percent it received in 2005?
However, the growing arrogance and worsening economic performance of the AKP government in Ankara landed it an electoral defeat, which could indeed be considered elsewhere as a great success, when electoral support for the ruling party retreated by eight percentage points to 38 percent. The mammoth was walking in a different direction but it was so huge that like an ocean liner perhaps it would take a long time for it to complete redirecting itself.
Is this an impact of the March AKP defeat?
On the island, however, the retreat that has been supporting a "We shall always be a step ahead of the Greeks and Greek Cypriots in peacemaking efforts" policy on the island ever since it came to power back in 2002 might have played a major political reorientation, which produced the return of the patriotic and nationalist domination in parliament with a cumulative over 62 percent electoral support and 33 seats, just one seat short of the required 34 votes needed to make amendments to the constitution.
Furthermore, the biggest conservative party, the UBP, produced 26 seats, enabling it to form the new government on its own. In northern Cyprus, where parliamentarians have developed the skill of moving from one party to the other or resigning from their parties and establishing new parties thanks to manipulation by political actors in Ankara, a government with 26-seat parliamentary support, however, will be no different than trying to walk on razor’s edge for Derviş Eroğlu preparing to make a comeback as premier for the seventh time.
Perhaps just to avoid any unforeseen surprises Eroğlu may opt to have a coalition government with either the social democratic Communal Democracy Party, or TDP, which has two seats in the new parliament, or with the Democratic Party, or DP, of Serdar Denktaş, which has five seats.
We will see that in the days ahead. But will the Turkish Cypriot elections have a "butterfly effect" on Turkish politics? Will there be a return to patriotic and nationalist domination in the Turkish Parliament and in elections scheduled for 2011? Or has the change already started but impacts of it are seen more vividly in northern Cyprus?
Are we faced with a butterfly or a mammoth effect? Or, are the developments just coincidental?
The change of the atmosphere in northern Cyprus, of course, was not at all a product of a "butterfly effect" if one considered the size and the extraordinary importance of Turkey for Turkish Cypriots. It could be best described as a "mammoth effect." The mammoth Turkey walked to a different political preference, and the quakes created by the walking of the mammoth created a strong political quake in northern Cyprus.
Perhaps, when he started to ponder whether to call for early elections, outgoing socialist Prime Minister Ferdi Sabit Soyer was considering that the increased electoral performance of the ruling AKP in Turkey would have a psychological effect, or yet another mammoth effect, on the Turkish Cypriot electorate and help him change the cliffhanger 25 to 25 seats in balance between the leftist and center-right parties in Parliament and thus help him produce a stronger socialist government. Indeed, if the AKP managed to increase its votes from 34 percent of 2002 elections to 47 percent in the 2007 polls, why wouldn’t the CTP increase its electoral support further than the 45 percent it received in 2005?
However, the growing arrogance and worsening economic performance of the AKP government in Ankara landed it an electoral defeat, which could indeed be considered elsewhere as a great success, when electoral support for the ruling party retreated by eight percentage points to 38 percent. The mammoth was walking in a different direction but it was so huge that like an ocean liner perhaps it would take a long time for it to complete redirecting itself.
Is this an impact of the March AKP defeat?
On the island, however, the retreat that has been supporting a "We shall always be a step ahead of the Greeks and Greek Cypriots in peacemaking efforts" policy on the island ever since it came to power back in 2002 might have played a major political reorientation, which produced the return of the patriotic and nationalist domination in parliament with a cumulative over 62 percent electoral support and 33 seats, just one seat short of the required 34 votes needed to make amendments to the constitution.
Furthermore, the biggest conservative party, the UBP, produced 26 seats, enabling it to form the new government on its own. In northern Cyprus, where parliamentarians have developed the skill of moving from one party to the other or resigning from their parties and establishing new parties thanks to manipulation by political actors in Ankara, a government with 26-seat parliamentary support, however, will be no different than trying to walk on razor’s edge for Derviş Eroğlu preparing to make a comeback as premier for the seventh time.
Perhaps just to avoid any unforeseen surprises Eroğlu may opt to have a coalition government with either the social democratic Communal Democracy Party, or TDP, which has two seats in the new parliament, or with the Democratic Party, or DP, of Serdar Denktaş, which has five seats.
We will see that in the days ahead. But will the Turkish Cypriot elections have a "butterfly effect" on Turkish politics? Will there be a return to patriotic and nationalist domination in the Turkish Parliament and in elections scheduled for 2011? Or has the change already started but impacts of it are seen more vividly in northern Cyprus?
Are we faced with a butterfly or a mammoth effect? Or, are the developments just coincidental?
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