Ankara wars in the AKP

Naturally, the Ankara decision is the most difficult one to make for the prime minister and his party, not only because it is the capital city and who will be the mayor is very important, but more so because of various complicating factors. Because of those factors, although Erdoğan successfully escaped some fait accompli moves by Gökçek without declaring the name of the incumbent as the candidate for Ankara, the prime minister so far did not rule out either the possibility of continuing with Gökçek.

Gökçek’s plague is Gökçek himself
In 1999 he was elected Ankara mayor for a second time. After the Virtue Party was also closed down Gökçek remained as an independent for a while and later joined the AKP. In the 2004 local elections he was elected as Ankara Mayor for a third time in a row, unprecedented in the history of the city. Now Gökçek is demanding the post for a fourth term and there is the possibility that if AKP does not nominate him he might run as an independent, or become a candidate of another conservative party. In any case, such a development would divide the vote and render it very difficult for the AKP to win the Ankara seat.

Another complicating factor is the character of Gökçek. He has been so arrogant, aggressive and egocentric that he has been a real headache for the AKP leadership, while his popularity among conservative citizens might be an asset for the party. Will Erdoğan decide to continue with a personality he has been having problems to keep under control? Besides Gökçek angered the prime minister earlier this year with his covert demand for his 25-year-old son be made a candidate for the seat of mayor for the Çankaya District of Ankara, a move that was criticized in the media as an effort to establish a Gökçek dynasty in Ankara.

The most important factor, unfortunately, is the rampant claims of corruption, nepotism and misuse of office against Gökçek, although none of those claims could have been proved so far. Yet, a recent "duel of words" on a leading TV channel between Gökçek and main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, deputy parliamentary group chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was such a big fiasco for the incumbent Ankara mayor that according to many people his chance for running for a fourth term diminished a lot. Another factor, which is based on a speculation rather than hard news, is based on a claim that in 2004 Erdoğan reluctantly agreed for Gökçek’s candidacy and promised incumbent Keçiören Mayor Turgut Altınok Ñ who was demanding to be a candidate for the Ankara seat as well Ñ that he should wait until the 2009 poll.

For the past few days senior AKP executives are meeting separately with the party’s Ankara deputies to feel their pulse, while Erdoğan is meeting with deputies of some other 45 cities. Ankara deputies reportedly share the party headquarters’ evaluation that three terms were more than enough for Gökçek and the party should have a new candidate for Ankara.

Naturally, as is the case for any other important decision in all political parties in Turkey, the final decision will be made by the absolute leader of the party, that is by Erdoğan.

So far, there are three other potential candidates in the AKP for the Ankara mayoral seat. They are Trade Minister Zafer Çağlayan, Altındağ Mayor Veysel Tiryaki and Keçiören Mayor Altınok. While in polls among party delegates Altınok appears to be preferred the most, the prime minister is reportedly unhappy with the heated contest for candidacy between Gökçek and Altınok and is going in between the names of Çağlayan and Tiryaki. The Ankara wars within the AKP appears will end within next couple of days with Erdoğan disclosing the name of the Ankara candidate of his party. However, it is clear that on the Gökçek front irrespective of whether he is named a candidate or not the fight will somehow continue in some form even after the March polls and in time may even take on a bigger aim should the incumbent is not made a candidate.