Yusuf Kanlı

Summer has not yet arrived in Cyprus, but rain and the shining sun of spring that turned this island into a green paradise are readying to bid farewell and give way to the roasting sun and dominant shade of yellow of the hot months at the doorstep. Winds have even started blowing hot. Tiny lagoons of rainwater in the fields along the highway from Nicosia to Kyrenia, however, testify to a not that bad of a winter and spring this year compared to the serious draught that scourged the island for the past many years.

The island is green. Weather is great. But, nowadays northern Cyprus is not a good place to visit. Not only does everyone appear to be over excited, but every corner of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is too noisy. On Sunday, 161,373 registered Turkish Cypriot will go to the polls to elect members of the 50-seat unicameral Republican Assembly. A total of 345 candidates on lists of seven parties and eight independent candidates are competing in the polls. Under Turkish Cypriot electoral laws no public opinion can be conducted in the last two weeks before election day, however polls released just before the ban came into effect ten days ago indicate that in this tenth parliamentary elections, the Turkish Cypriot people will vote to punish the ruling Republican Turks’ Party, or CTP, and the Freedom and Reform Party, or the ORP because of their perceived failure to bring an end to the international isolation of the north.

A visit to Washington this week by President Mehmet Ali Talat, the former leader of the CTP, and his meeting there on Wednesday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was a last ditch hope for the socialist dominated ruling coalition to minimize its electoral loses. The Clinton meeting, which was originally planned for March 30 but for various reasons could only be held on April 15, perhaps came too late to change perceptions in northern Cyprus and give hope to the electorate that there might be light at the end of the tunnel for an end to the international isolation of the north.

Prime Minister Ferdi Sabit Soyer was also busy creating a Turkish Cypriot version of the Ergenekon controversy. He released a 20-plus page document allegedly showing the conservative National Unity Party, or UBP, leader Deviş Eroğlu having some shadowy deals with the "Turkish Ergenekon gang." That attempt appears to have backfired, but eventual verdict will be made by the people on Sunday.

Bağış enters the scene
Ankara was also active this week in support of the ruling coalition, fearing that a UBP comeback could complicate both the talks and the pro-settlement image of Ankara and northern Cyprus. Egemen Bağış, the state minister in charge of EU affairs arrived on the island Wednesday and a few hours later attended a dinner hosted in his honor by Turgay Avcı, the foreign minister and leader of the ÖRP. At the dinner Bağış reiterated Ankara’s resolute support for pro-settlement people imn northern Cyprus, and underlined the importance Turkey attached on Talat continuing the talks as the Turkish Cypriot negotiator. Though Talat’s "negotiator" position is not under threat and the UBP did not declare that it would change the negotiator, technically Talat is negotiating a settlement with his Greek Cypriot counterpart Demetris Christofias with the authorization of the Turkish Cypriot Parliament. After a change of parliamentary arithmetic in favor of the UBP, even if Talat remains as negotiator obviously life will become more difficult for him.

On Thursday Bağış held contacts with both CTP leader and Prime Minister Soyer and Avcı, for a second time, but left the island without having any contact with the opposition leaders. The message from Ankara was rather clear. Furthermore, that message might be very meaningful if the trends of the electorate with mainland background is to be taken into account. That group of electorate tend to vote in accordance to the wishes of whoever is in government in Ankara. Thus, this open support of the AKP government to the CTP and ÖRP may help diminish CTP’s loses, but will it help ÖRP meet the five percent threshold and enter Parliament remains a big question. Another question, of course, is the one related to how moral it was for the AKP government sent a minister and demonstrate support for some parties just days before elections and how compatible such action with the notion of free vote.

A German colleague was on the line. "Where Turkey is heading?" he was asking, very much like colleagues from many other European Union member states as well as non-member European countries have been asking Turkish journalists since Monday morning’s wave of house-office searches and detentions within the framework of the so-called "Ergenekon terrorist gang" probe. It’s difficult to answer the questions, even if the foreigners are colleagues. Turks are asking each other the same question; many indeed have an answer in their minds but no one dares give an answer.

Where is Turkey heading? Why is there such a thick cloud of uncertainty over the country? Why are people who were never ever involved in politics, who never ever defended a political idea so scared about what might happen tomorrow?

Similarly, how did it happen that millions of Turks are so frightened that they have started answering their ringing telephones as if someone will send a bullet through the telephone line? Why have people developed the paranoia that something like Big Brother in George Orwell’s famous "1984" novel might be listening whatever they say, watching whatever they do?

Everyone must have confidence in justice, but how does it happen that the main opposition leader of the country is declaring from Parliament’s rostrum that the country is faced with a coup through the judges and prosecutors of the country? As is said, if meat is rotten, you put salt on the meat. But, what are you going to do if the salt is rotten? How can’t Turks or the main opposition party of Turkey have confidence in justice? Is Turkey not a democratic republic adhering to the supremacy of law? But was it not the chief prosecutor of the Court of Appeals who complained recently that judiciary is not independent enough in Turkey? How was that possible if Turkey adheres to the supremacy of law and the principle of equality of all in front of law? Or, is this country is something like Orwell’s "Animal Farm," where all animals are equal but some are more equal than others?


Humiliating Turkey
Where on earth might any judiciary and security forces have the skill to capture tens of geriatrics, several dozen obsolete or discarded hand grenades, some launchers without ammunition, a few rifles, some bullets and boast that a coup was prevented? And in which democracy on earth it is possible to see a propaganda machine indoctrinating the public that there was indeed a gang Ğ a serious threat to democracy, a coup attempt but it was foiled Ğ while at the same time the leader of the last coup was feted in full honors at the presidential palace by the president of the country? Or how can we reconcile summary execution of people detained, and often yet not officially charged by a prosecutor, on the front pages of newspapers with the notion that no one is guilty until sentenced by a court, or put that principle aside, with the notion of justice itself? And, my European colleagues are joking: "Do you think Turkey will become a sultanate or a banana republic in five years’ time?"

Humiliating, is it not? Do we deserve such humiliation?

Still, many people in this country maintain their confidence that these difficult days will come to an end with a victory of the supremacy of justice, universal norms of democracy and, of course, a secular and democratic republic. Even if the humble residence of a 74-year-old lady professor who devoted her life to the education of girls, even if a professor who not only pioneered tissue transplant in Turkey but established as well one of the leading universities of the country, could be detained because of their public criticism of the advance of political Islam in the country at the expense of free thought and a secular and democratic republic, the awareness that there are quite many other intellectuals in this country willing to devote themselves to the fight under all conditions for the preservation of the secular and democratic republic that the founding father Mustafa Kemal Atatürk declared as his greatest achievement, there is no need to have worries or to be bothered with the "Where is Turkey heading" and such humiliating questions. These are difficult times. No problem can last forever. Sooner or later these waves will subside, calm will be restored, and sun will shine once again on the modern Turkish republic.

It was described as the "annual evaluation speech." It did not have any reference to the "current events" of the country. Apparently, the top general will be holding a news conference next week, when he will reveal what the military thinks on current issues. Will the pertinent "Ergenekon gang" house-office searches, detention waves and incredible accusations against some of the country’s very prominent personalities be among those current issues? Or, will the continued "spring operations" against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, gang in rural Southeastern Turkey be among them? Or, will the operation on the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, and detention of scores of DTP executives be among them?

Or, will U.S. President Obama’s visit and his sugarcoated daring instructions to the Turkish government and Parliament on a wide range of issues from opening the Armenian border to reopening the Greek Orthodox Halki seminary and recognizing all rights of the minorities so that this country might deserve to have an "model partnership" with the U.S and avoid an endorsement by the U.S. president of the Armenian claims of genocide be among those current issues? We have to wait and hopefully learn next week what the top general believes are the "current issues" of Turkey. For now we have to suffice with the "annual evaluation speech," which in fact was nothing further than a "face make up effort" to salvage the prestige of the military under attack at home and abroad of still having a major say in the policymaking mechanism of this country.

What General Başbuğ did yesterday was indeed a briefing on the "manifesto" of the military from how the military perceived religion to secularism, Islamic brotherhoods in a secular democracy, democracy, relations between the civilian government and the military, separatist terrorism, national identity and "cultural" secondary identity and some such top discussion subjects. Was such an effort by the top general of the country necessary? Well, what is wrong in the military explaining to the Turkish public what it thinks and where it is regarding some key concepts, some fundamental discussion topics in the Turkish society? But, at the same time, why in a democratic republic would the top general of the country gather some 1,000 "opinion leaders" of the country and deliver them a briefing on what the military thinks on certain important issues? As Başbuğ himself said, if the top commanders of the country were indeed top advisers of the government on security matters, why on earth did the top general not go to the prime minister or open up such a discussion at the National Security Council and brief the government rather than going public?

Yes, there are some diehard anti-military people in Turkey. The top general, of course, was right in complaining about a systematic effort to discredit the Turkish military in the eyes of the Turkish people. Mind you, most of those diehard anti-military "opinion leaders" were the "guests" of the top general yesterday. Did Başbuğ aimed at delivering a direct "Come on, try to learn what the Turkish military is and what it is not before unleashing a salvo on us next time"? Or, after so many coups and interventions in politics, are the "opinion leaders" of Turkey foolish enough to believe that the Turkish military is so committed to democracy that if the secular republic is "seriously endangered" and political Islam is indeed about to take over the "democratic secular republic," just for the sake of "not hurting democracy," it will refrain from some odd action once again? The thin line was indeed underlined in Başbuğ’s speech: "There is a strong correlation between democracy and secularism." Indeed, the biggest heritage of Atatürk, as Obama underlined also, is the secular democratic republic.

The civilian elements in Turkey who are opposed to an Islamist takeover of the country but who are at the same time staunchly against a military coup must tread well the emphasis in Başbuğ’s statement. The military is not against religion. But, religion cannot be held hostage to the interests of some brotherhood organizations that have no place in a secular democracy. The military is devoted to a secular democracy. Yet, there can be no democracy in Turkey in the absence of secularism. There is a national identity and cultural sub-identities. National identity cannot be opened to discussion and sub-identities must all be confined within the cultural sphere.

Hundreds of police and gendarmerie, with white envelopes from a prosecutor serving in Istanbul in their hands were knocking on the doors of some suspected "criminals" early Monday morning. Knock! Knock! Knock!

"Who is that?"

"Professor, on orders of the prosecutor we request you allow us in for a house search!"

"House search?"

"Yes Sir! Sorry, but that’s the order we received. We shall search your house. We have a warrant."

"Come on in!"

Police did not know what they were looking at. Thus, from academic notes to conference CDs, notebooks and laptops, and of course mobile telephone apparatus, they gathered everything that could be carried, placed in boxes and dispatched to the Istanbul prosecutor’s office, while the professor was sent first to a medical check and then escorted to Istanbul as well for questioning on charges of belonging to a criminal gang that was alleged to be in preparation of engaging in acts aimed at preparing grounds for a military takeover.

Simultaneously, in 18 cities of the country, some 50 prominent personalities were subjected to the same humiliating treatment. Who was not among the "coup plotters"? An over 74-year-old Professor Türkan Saylan who has been suffering from cancer for some time? Or, Mustafa Yurtkuran, the acting chairman of the Atatürk Thought Association, or ADD? University rectors, those still serving and the retired ones?

The common points of all those detained or subjected to house and office search were their involvement at different degrees in the secularist republican rallies of 2007 as well as their public criticism of the Islamist applications of the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP. Apparently, it was now the time of taking in university professors, leading figures of the nongovernmental organizations who were not only unhappy with the way the AKP has been running the country, but worst, telling people about their concerns that the secular and democratic modern republic is being faced with a systematic counter revolution effort that aimed at creating a post-modern Islamic state on this land.

Empire of fear

The penslingers of the ruling AKP were immediately out in the sunlight for "comments" to news people. Excited and encouraged with the house searches and detentions, these former separatists, established fundamentalists or professed opportunities were declaring to news people with the glare of victory in their eyes their conviction that "as was established with the indictments" prepared by the prosecutor of the Ergenekon "gang" case, the country was on the verge of a "coup" by some antidemocratic elements and that they were perfectly sure that soon the prosecutor would declare summaries of the "heinous" acts of the professors and NGO figures who were detained or whose houses were searched yesterday?

Others? Those who are concerned of the systematic counter revolution being staged in the country by political Islam against the secular and democratic republic that Atatürk had said was his biggest accomplishment? Some of them gathered in front of the offices and houses of those detained to protest the development, but most of them were scared to raise their voices, fearing that they might be the next to be rounded up. Wives were calling husbands, husbands were calling wives, children were appealing to their parents, friends were advising friends: "Don’t engage in discussions that may land you in jail. Be careful in what you talk about. Don’t use those words such as "Ergenekon," "gang," "political Islam," "counter revolution" and such..." This is the empire of fear.

Not one by one, people are being rounded up in tens, fifties. Silivri prison where the alleged members of the "Ergenekon gang" were being "hosted" has become the place with highest literacy level in the country while the entire country has turned into a prison of the fear empire. Soon at the customs gates of the country besides the "Welcome to Turkey" placard we should place a new placard: "Criticism of government is at your own risk! Our country is not responsible if you don’t behave well and land yourself in jail."

President Mehmet Ali Talat of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will be finally traveling to Washington on Tuesday as the guest of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The visit, which was originally planned for March 30 but was postponed because of pressures from the Greek lobby that the first Cypriot contact of the new Obama administration should not be with the Turkish Cypriot side, as well as because of complications in Clinton’s program, is coming now after a meeting between Clinton and Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Kyprianou on the sidelines of the EU summit at Prague and a scheduled April 20 meeting in Washington with the Greek Cypriot minister.

That is, in a way the meeting with Talat is sandwiched in between two meetings of Secretary of State Clinton with Kyprianou.

This is a rather improved situation compared to the past when Turkish Cypriots were unable to meet at all any executive of foreign governments to explain their views, but still, this sandwiched meeting will demonstrate the immense difficulties the Turkish Cypriot side has been facing to make their voice heard.

As an "internationally recognized" government, Greek Cypriots have the possibility to address every possible forum, meet with anyone they would like, face no difficulty in coming together with their counterparts, but an invitation by a foreign minister to Talat not in his capacity as president, but as a "Turkish Cypriot citizen of the Republic of Cyprus" is treated by everyone as if Turkish Cypriots were accorded an incredibly important bonus.

In no way can Talat’s forthcoming visit to Washington and the scheduled April 15 meeting with Clinton be considered as insignificant developments. Yet, if this visit was designed to show Greek Cypriots and the Turkish Cypriot opponents of Talat, the stick part of a new U.S. "stick and carrot" policy for Cyprus, it is obvious that the stick that will be shown is a cracked one.

It should not be ignored either that the invitation was extended to Talat at the request of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who has been very much worried that Talat’s Republican Turks’ Party, or CTP, is heading to a humiliating defeat in the April 19 parliamentary polls in northern Cyprus. Erdoğan’s hope is that with the effect of this visit on the electoral perception a single-party UBP government might be avoided and a UBP-CTP grand coalition or a CTP-Democrat Party, or DP, or UBP-DP coalition might be achieved.

The UBP coming to power in northern Cyprus either as a single-party government or as senior partner of a coalition will indeed have no immediate impact on the Cyprus peace talks, though it might be difficult for Talat to continue the talks without a more efficient consultation mechanism with the government. There might be some serious confrontation between the president and the government regarding amendment of the Land Commission Law and rewriting the history books. Though Eroğlu has agreed so far that Talat should continue as negotiator, a UBP-dominated Turkish legislature may even eventually want to strip Talat with the power of representing Turkish Cypriots at the Cyprus talks. Still, not only Turkish Cypriots, everyone must learn to respect the outcome of elections.

Visit: A golden opportunity

Furthermore, rather than approaching with palliative and conjectural concerns, the Talat’s visit to Washington should be considered as a "golden opportunity" that he should utilize to make some Turkish Cypriot plea heard by the U.S. administration.

According to what we have been hearing from Talat’s staff, the Turkish Cypriot president is preparing to herald talks with Clinton some key demands of his people. These include an expectation that the U.S. should use its "persuasive power" on Greek Cypriots to agree to a "power sharing deal" based on the "political equality" of the two peoples of the island and the "bi-zonal, bi-communal federation" calls of the UN Security Council. He will as well stress that the international isolation of Turkish Cypriots should be eased and the U.S. can and should play a pioneering role in achieving that goal. If this current process is allowed go down the drain like the previous efforts because Greek Cypriots refuse to share power with Turkish Cypriots, it might be very difficult to sustain the concept of a reunified federal Cyprus.

The government has finally made the right decision and declared May Day a holiday for Turkish labor once again. After 29 years, Turkish labor has got back the May Day International Labor Day holiday, which was canceled by the 1980 military coup administration. This decision by the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government has to be appreciated. The government’s move has to be appreciated, and we have to be thankful to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but we have to mention as well that over the past six years and particularly last year, it was the same Erdoğan who rejected similar demands of the labor, declared that the "cost of a one-day holiday to the Turkish economy is $2 billion. Turkey is already a holiday paradise. Annual working days in Turkey are as low as 200 days because of the excessive number of holidays. The cost of a one-day holiday to industry is $2 billion. On one hand, we will seek better pay for labor, but on the other hand, we will demand additional holidays. That cannot happen. May Day is not a holiday everywhere in the world. There are places where it is a holiday, and there are places which it is not."

Furthermore, as it is this year, Turkish labor was demanding last year to have a May Day rally at Istanbul’s Taksim Square and commemorate the 1977 bloodshed staged there by some "dark figures" within the Turkish state. As has happened this year, the Istanbul governor turned down the workers’ requests to stage a rally in Taksim Square on May Day, citing security concerns. The refusal of the governor to give permission for a Taksim rally, as is apparently brewing now again, resulted in an escalation of tension between the government and labor. At the time, Erdoğan told the media: "The end of the world will come when feet start to administer the heads. At every province, it is up to the governors to decide where rallies can be held and where such events cannot be held."It was, of course, a controversial statement and did not help at all to defuse the tension. When the governor and the government refused to issue permission for a Taksim rally, workers insisted. Some labor groups eventually tried to walk to Taksim on May Day and were suppressed by police, who used excessive force. The siege of the headquarters of the Confederation of Revolutionary Workers’ Unions, or DISK, headquarters, the bombardment of the building with water cannons, and police entering the building for the first time since the 1980 coup were some of the sad developments of the May Day last year that we remember today.

Empathy please!
Now, labor is still insisting on celebrating May Day and commemorating the victims of the 1977 violent May Day at Taksim Square, and the government remains as determined as ever not to give Taksim Square to workers. The governor is again citing security concerns for his refusal to have a crowded rally at Taksim Square, and the government is asserting again that it is up to the governor to decide in which square the city labor can mark the day.

Obviously, having the May Day rally at another location in Istanbul would not make much difference regarding marking the day. After all, we have to appreciate the government’s reinstitution of May Day as an official holiday. But the governor and the government must overlook the notion that there could be violence if a rally is allowed to be held in Taksim Square and understand the symbolic importance of holding a rally in Taksim. The governor and the government must understand the importance for the Turkish labor to have a celebration and a commemoration at Taksim Square 32 years after the 1977 state-sponsored (or sponsored by some element of the state) violence on labor. A May Day rally in Taksim Square would also mark progress in Turkish democracy. Furthermore, there is of course security risk irrespective of where the May Day rally is held because of the participation of hundreds of thousands of workers. There could be provocation by some terrorist groups or some other elements irrespective where the rally might be held. The duty of a state is to take the required security precautions and prevent such things from happening. Banning rallies at a square because of security concerns is nothing less than closing down schools because of problems in the primary schools.

Perhaps May Day is a byproduct of the depreciation in AKP votes in the local polls. Perhaps the AKP is trying to win back the hearts and minds of the disgruntled. Then, it should walk the extra mile and declare Taksim as the center of May Day rallies and order the governor to undertake adequate security measures. Such a move will definitely produce a win-win result.

At a time when the Motherland’s mystical Erkenekon basket for everything in Turkey has turned into a shambles with a key testimony said to have constituted the backbone of the investigation and the court case "discovered," after it was kept for many years a "secret" in the safe of the National Intelligence, or MIT, to have been delivered under torture, the kinderland, or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, decided to join the bandwagon with an appeal to the Chief Prosecutor’s Ofice by Prime Minister Ferdi Sabit Soyer for opening an investigation into "Ergenekon deals" of founding President Rauf R. Denktaş and six-time former Prime Minister Dr. Derviş Eroğlu.

Many people would remember, Kinderland’s Prime Minister Soyer had sent Finance Ministry people on Asil Nadir’s Kıbrıs newspaper allegations of tax fraud and a lofty fine. Just as the Motherland government was trying to stifle the voice of the Doğan group with a similar charge, the Kinderland’s Soyer hoped to silence the Kıbrıs newspaper which has been very critical of his government. Eventually, Kıbrıs escaped being confiscated after Nadir agreed to a provisional payment plan on the condition that a new investigation was launched into the financial records of the company. The Motherland government could not silence the Doğan group but the Kinderland government at least managed a replacement of the editor in chief of Kıbrıs.

Now, despite the fact that the Chief Prosecutor (who functions as justice minister because there is no justice ministry in northern Cyprus) can launch an investigation against anyone only if there is viable and sufficient evidence, with some staff collected through the Internet, a file containing some allegations based on some notes found by Turkish police in the ambush in Ankara on the house of Osman Özbek and a copy of sections of the second indictment where names of Denktaş and Eroğlu passes, as if the Turkish Ergenekon trial had ended and allegations in the indictment were all endorsed by a court verdict, Soyer demanded an investigation against two most senior politicians of his country with a complaint that they were involved in "gang activity."

Is Soyer plotting to avert a humiliating defeat?Knowing that prosecutors can launch an investigation against a political party only charges of financial abuse or involvement in violence, Soyer charged the main opposition National Unity Party, or UBP, and other "anti-settlement" were provided 20 million dollars while the UBP alone received some one million dollars in 1998 to support Eroğlu’s candidacy against Denktaş in the presidential elections.

But, why Soyer made such a demand from the Prosecutor’s Office now and not, let’s say, immediately after the second Ergenekon indictment, which like the first one was very much like a thriller, was accepted by the court in March, interestingly three days before the Turkish local polls? Or, why he did not make such an appeal immediately after Özbek’s alleged notes were serialized in the allegiant media in Turkey? Why he, as well as President Mehmet Ali Talat, told reporters only some ten days ago that a judicial case could be opened in the Kinderland only if the case in Turkey concluded with a verdict that would require an investigation in northern Cyprus (which indeed must have been the case)? The answer is quite plain. On April 19 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will go to parliamentary polls and though publication of public opinion polls in the last two weeks before the election date is prohibited, polls published before the ban entered into force have all shown that the ruling party might receive as low as 21-23 percent of the vote, while the UBP might get as high as 42-46 percent, the junior center right Democrat Party of Serdar Denktaş may get 12-14 points and the social democratic Communal Democracy Party might receive 5.5 percent vote or so.

That is Soyer’s CTP is on the way out of government, UBP of Eroğlu is coming in. That is, Kinderland’s Soyer might have attempted to distract public attention from the failures of his administration, create controversy around Eroğlu and his party and salvage his Republican Turks’ Party from a disastrous election defeat. Efforts to create a fear empire did not help Motherland’s Erdoğan and his party retreated some eight percentage points in local polls. Will such efforts help Soyer? On the contrary, he victimized Eroğlu and Turkish people always tend to support the victims, not the oppressors. Soyer must have been ill-advised by his allies in the Motherland.

Did it really close the George W. Bush era? That is, did the Barrack Hussein Obama’s swing through London, Strasbourg, Prague, Ankara, Istanbul and of course Baghdad mark the end of the hegemonic and agonistic style of the Bush presidency and the opening of a new style based on engagement, cooperation, consensus seeking and partnership? Turks were impressed with Obama making, excluding Canada, his first-ever presidential bilateral visit to Turkey, mostly delighted with his modest gestures throughout the trip, though some people were angered with some elements in his "open buffet" statements, the majority managed to find sufficient "food for thought" to fill their plates and felt comforted, yet, is it not too early to make such a comment? What we were definitely convinced of was the demonstrated integrity of the character of Obama. It was not easy, obviously, to stand side by side with the Turkish president and answer an American journalist’s question on alleged Armenian genocide issue saying he maintained his views on the issue but believed rather than creating obstructions everyone must help Turkey and Armenia proceed further towards normalizing their relations. It was a courageous statement.

It was irritating for many Turks, but it was just a statement of fact when later that day he told Parliament that although he knew that there were strong views in the Turkish legislature about the "terrible events of 1915" and although "there has been a good deal of commentary about my views" the contentious issue was indeed one of "how the Turkish and Armenian people deal with the past. And the best way forward for the Turkish and Armenian people is a process that works through the past in a way that is honest, open and constructive." The message was indeed clear: Face your past. He was stressing that message while at the same time softening down possible reactions by recalling examples from some very bitter episodes of American history. In both Ankara and Istanbul, the U.S. president explained to Turks that while he appreciated the "historic and courageous steps" taken by Turkish and Armenian leaders so far, opening the border, normalizing relations would not only return the Turkish and Armenian people to a peaceful and prosperous coexistence serving both nations.

What Obama said and the little information we have about the two years of "secret" diplomacy between Turkey and Armenia were all indicative of a historic decision in the pipeline which might be unveiled as early as next week. There are already "not so credible" speculations that it would come on April 16 during Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s trip to Yerevan for the Black Sea Economic Cooperation meeting there, while some people say Ankara is still pioneering whether to withhold such a "done deal" with Armenia until after the "April 24 hurdle" (the anniversary of the so-called genocide) was over and after it was seen that Obama, who had committed himself during the campaign to recognizing genocide, did not make reference to the contentious word in his anniversary speech. Yet, it appears as well that the United States has been pressuring Ankara to announce the deal before Obama makes the anniversary statement with no reference to genocide fearing that if Turkey doesn’t deliver Armenia border opening and other steps towards normalizing relations with Armenia, Obama’s image and credibility could suffer a serious blow.

Azerbaijan factor

On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s strong protest to the Turkey-Armenia deal in the making, as manifested with President Ilham Aliyev boycotting the Istanbul Alliance of Civilizations and Ankara’s concerns of a possible domestic political spillover from undertaking such a step without getting a firm guarantee from Obama that he would not recognize it as genocide in his April 24 statement, is making it difficult for Turkey to announce the timing of the announcement of the deal with Armenia. After three telephone calls by President Gül and a telephone call by President Obama have all apparently failed to soothe Aliyev’s strong opposition, now there is an expectation that either Gül or the prime minister will make a "working trip" to Baku to convince Aliyev that normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations would not mean Turkey letting Azerbaijan down but on the contrary will provide Ankara a better and more efficient opportunity to contribute to a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.