Time for a historic decision

Did it really close the George W. Bush era? That is, did the Barrack Hussein Obama’s swing through London, Strasbourg, Prague, Ankara, Istanbul and of course Baghdad mark the end of the hegemonic and agonistic style of the Bush presidency and the opening of a new style based on engagement, cooperation, consensus seeking and partnership?

Turks were impressed with Obama making, excluding Canada, his first-ever presidential bilateral visit to Turkey, mostly delighted with his modest gestures throughout the trip, though some people were angered with some elements in his "open buffet" statements, the majority managed to find sufficient "food for thought" to fill their plates and felt comforted, yet, is it not too early to make such a comment? What we were definitely convinced of was the demonstrated integrity of the character of Obama. It was not easy, obviously, to stand side by side with the Turkish president and answer an American journalist’s question on alleged Armenian genocide issue saying he maintained his views on the issue but believed rather than creating obstructions everyone must help Turkey and Armenia proceed further towards normalizing their relations. It was a courageous statement.

It was irritating for many Turks, but it was just a statement of fact when later that day he told Parliament that although he knew that there were strong views in the Turkish legislature about the "terrible events of 1915" and although "there has been a good deal of commentary about my views" the contentious issue was indeed one of "how the Turkish and Armenian people deal with the past. And the best way forward for the Turkish and Armenian people is a process that works through the past in a way that is honest, open and constructive." The message was indeed clear: Face your past. He was stressing that message while at the same time softening down possible reactions by recalling examples from some very bitter episodes of American history. In both Ankara and Istanbul, the U.S. president explained to Turks that while he appreciated the "historic and courageous steps" taken by Turkish and Armenian leaders so far, opening the border, normalizing relations would not only return the Turkish and Armenian people to a peaceful and prosperous coexistence serving both nations.

What Obama said and the little information we have about the two years of "secret" diplomacy between Turkey and Armenia were all indicative of a historic decision in the pipeline which might be unveiled as early as next week. There are already "not so credible" speculations that it would come on April 16 during Foreign Minister Ali Babacan’s trip to Yerevan for the Black Sea Economic Cooperation meeting there, while some people say Ankara is still pioneering whether to withhold such a "done deal" with Armenia until after the "April 24 hurdle" (the anniversary of the so-called genocide) was over and after it was seen that Obama, who had committed himself during the campaign to recognizing genocide, did not make reference to the contentious word in his anniversary speech. Yet, it appears as well that the United States has been pressuring Ankara to announce the deal before Obama makes the anniversary statement with no reference to genocide fearing that if Turkey doesn’t deliver Armenia border opening and other steps towards normalizing relations with Armenia, Obama’s image and credibility could suffer a serious blow.

Azerbaijan factor

On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s strong protest to the Turkey-Armenia deal in the making, as manifested with President Ilham Aliyev boycotting the Istanbul Alliance of Civilizations and Ankara’s concerns of a possible domestic political spillover from undertaking such a step without getting a firm guarantee from Obama that he would not recognize it as genocide in his April 24 statement, is making it difficult for Turkey to announce the timing of the announcement of the deal with Armenia. After three telephone calls by President Gül and a telephone call by President Obama have all apparently failed to soothe Aliyev’s strong opposition, now there is an expectation that either Gül or the prime minister will make a "working trip" to Baku to convince Aliyev that normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations would not mean Turkey letting Azerbaijan down but on the contrary will provide Ankara a better and more efficient opportunity to contribute to a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
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