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A ’make or break’ year for Turkey-EU ties
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Paris - The influential and prestigious International Crisis Group (ICG) has issued a report on the critical juncture that Turkish-EU ties will enter in the new year. The suggestion is that if the sides are not careful these ties could be severed in 2009.
Robert the Picchia, a leading French Senator, says that he is for Turkish accession because of its geopolitical importance, which will become increasingly vital for European interests. His suggestion is therefore that a severance in ties will be to Europe’s dire disadvantage.
There appears to be a growing awareness on this score across Europe among the wiser elements. But will this solve the problem between Turkey and some countries or groups in Europe? Listening to Picchia, as I did in the French Senate building in Paris yesterday, the answer to this question appears to be "no." The reason is because there are politicians, particularly in France, who are willing to unabashedly instrumentalise the Turkish issue in order to get votes, and who do not refrain from playing on the fears of the public concerning Islam for this purpose. But it is precisely these politicians who are creating an environment whereby Islamisation, and to that extent anti-westernization, gains added ground in Turkey, thus actualizing the fears that they play on today.
It is clear that the secular element will become weaker and the Islamic element stronger if Turkey looses its "Western orientation." There will, after all, be less reason to concentrated on this vocation, given the snub from the West Turkey will have received after its bid for EU membership.
Those "seculars" who are anti-EU today, for their part, will realize too late the cost of their not supporting this dimension. Many Turks would not accept this, and I include a large number of these "seculars" in this group; but it is clear to many people that it will be difficult to sustain and reinforce secularism and democracy without the prospect of EU membership.
Put another way, those in this country who argue that Turkey’s western vocation has been a waste of time, "because Europeans will never look on Turks as equals" will have gained ground to the detriment of much that has been achieved in this country over the past 8 decades.
Europe’s effort for nearly 150 years has been to reform Turkey in order to include it in the European sphere on influence. The EU dimension is only the most contemporary expression of this. It is no surprise; therefore, that the most pronounced words among EU diplomats today, in referring to Turkey, is "reform."
Pro-EU Turks have also been talking almost non-stop about the need for social and political reform in Turkey. They see that this is the only way to maintain the country’s Western orientation. So for them the EU dimension is as vital as it is for Senator Picchia.
But a Europe that is not willing to play with them leaves them out in the cold. It strengthens the hands of those who look at other regions of the world that are developing economically without such niceties as "human rights" or "democracy" or even "secularism." So to return to the ICG assessment, 2009 will indeed be a make-it-or-break-it year for Turkey-EU relations. But to assume that the cost of a breakage will be borne merely by Turkey is false. There will be a cost for Europe as well.
As I indicated to my French interlocutors yesterday, France’s "No to Turkey in the EU" position has as yet not had a concrete cost for Ankara, despite causing much headache politically. But the ’no to France in Turkey" attitude in Turkey has cost France to the tune of billions of dollars in lost interests, if we are to go by what the French are saying themselves. This cost could easily spread to the political domain in the near future. The bottom line therefore is that it is not just Turkey that has to sit back and worry in 2009. It is also the EU side. In fact Turkey can and probably will create alternatives to the EU, much to the satisfaction of many nationalists and Islamists in this country.
Turkey’s geographic location and its growing geopolitical importance will provide the necessary environment for this. So the basic question here is whether Turkey will go the course of Italy, or that of Malaysia, which in itself is not an unsuccessful model.
The converse of this is that while Turkey may be able to create alternatives to the EU, will the EU be able to create an alternative for Turkey. In addition to this, will the EU be happy with a less secular, more Islamic, and less democratic country where the majority is strongly anti-European.
There appears to be a growing awareness on this score across Europe among the wiser elements. But will this solve the problem between Turkey and some countries or groups in Europe? Listening to Picchia, as I did in the French Senate building in Paris yesterday, the answer to this question appears to be "no." The reason is because there are politicians, particularly in France, who are willing to unabashedly instrumentalise the Turkish issue in order to get votes, and who do not refrain from playing on the fears of the public concerning Islam for this purpose. But it is precisely these politicians who are creating an environment whereby Islamisation, and to that extent anti-westernization, gains added ground in Turkey, thus actualizing the fears that they play on today.
It is clear that the secular element will become weaker and the Islamic element stronger if Turkey looses its "Western orientation." There will, after all, be less reason to concentrated on this vocation, given the snub from the West Turkey will have received after its bid for EU membership.
Those "seculars" who are anti-EU today, for their part, will realize too late the cost of their not supporting this dimension. Many Turks would not accept this, and I include a large number of these "seculars" in this group; but it is clear to many people that it will be difficult to sustain and reinforce secularism and democracy without the prospect of EU membership.
Put another way, those in this country who argue that Turkey’s western vocation has been a waste of time, "because Europeans will never look on Turks as equals" will have gained ground to the detriment of much that has been achieved in this country over the past 8 decades.
Europe’s effort for nearly 150 years has been to reform Turkey in order to include it in the European sphere on influence. The EU dimension is only the most contemporary expression of this. It is no surprise; therefore, that the most pronounced words among EU diplomats today, in referring to Turkey, is "reform."
Pro-EU Turks have also been talking almost non-stop about the need for social and political reform in Turkey. They see that this is the only way to maintain the country’s Western orientation. So for them the EU dimension is as vital as it is for Senator Picchia.
But a Europe that is not willing to play with them leaves them out in the cold. It strengthens the hands of those who look at other regions of the world that are developing economically without such niceties as "human rights" or "democracy" or even "secularism." So to return to the ICG assessment, 2009 will indeed be a make-it-or-break-it year for Turkey-EU relations. But to assume that the cost of a breakage will be borne merely by Turkey is false. There will be a cost for Europe as well.
As I indicated to my French interlocutors yesterday, France’s "No to Turkey in the EU" position has as yet not had a concrete cost for Ankara, despite causing much headache politically. But the ’no to France in Turkey" attitude in Turkey has cost France to the tune of billions of dollars in lost interests, if we are to go by what the French are saying themselves. This cost could easily spread to the political domain in the near future. The bottom line therefore is that it is not just Turkey that has to sit back and worry in 2009. It is also the EU side. In fact Turkey can and probably will create alternatives to the EU, much to the satisfaction of many nationalists and Islamists in this country.
Turkey’s geographic location and its growing geopolitical importance will provide the necessary environment for this. So the basic question here is whether Turkey will go the course of Italy, or that of Malaysia, which in itself is not an unsuccessful model.
The converse of this is that while Turkey may be able to create alternatives to the EU, will the EU be able to create an alternative for Turkey. In addition to this, will the EU be happy with a less secular, more Islamic, and less democratic country where the majority is strongly anti-European.
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