The cracked glass

Looking at these traffic jams you may think that we have overcome the economic crisis and things are not so bad after all. But is that the reality? All script writers who write optimistic scenarios always see the full half of the glass. But looking at the Turkish economy in general we realize that rather than the full or empty half of the glass it is important to see whether the glass is cracked or fully broken.

In our routine daily schedule we tend to miss certain points. From my point of view the point we miss is the lack of demand in the Turkish economy. In economies, demand never drops to the zero point. But the truth is that today demand is at its lowest level in Turkey. The decrease in demand gives big headaches to investors. Who would want to invest and risk his money in a country where there is no stability? At this point you start asking yourself the following question: Is Turkey such an unstable country?

Of course Turkey is not an unstable country but her economic and political stability depends on international conditions. And of course you also have to consider the global crisis which has affected Turkey deeply.

During the last eight months we continuously have analyzed the world and the global crisis, scrutinized the effects of the crisis in Turkey. Turkey was caught in the crisis whirlpool without completing its economic infrastructure.

Neither the world nor Turkey can continue to survive without reforming their economic infrastructure and correctly calculate the balance between supply and demand during this crisis.

In other words, as there are theoretical difficulties in the world economic system, unsolved economic infrastructures create more difficulties. Transformation is up to the human being.

World resources are not enough for the human being. As we are unable to increase these resources we only struggle to share them and create more difficulties.

During the last 20 years we artificially tried to increase these resources but with the lack of production they have become insufficient for us. In the first 10 years of the 21st century mankind has been witness to bloody wars. The next 10 years are not very promising as well. To continue pursuing war economies and try to stop the crisis is not an easy job.

According to the latest World Bank report, the Turkish economy will decrease by 5.5 percent in 2009 and increase by 1.5 percent in 2010 and by 3 percent in 2011. Europe and the United States will follow a trend of economic decrease this year but improve their economic conditions in 2010 and will enjoy a comfortable time in 2011, according to the report. A country like Turkey, whose 50 percent economic relations is with Western countries, will have more difficulties in the coming two years compared to the past two years. Starting from 2011 if Turkey doesn't take the necessary economic measures it will be very difficult for her to stay on her feet.

You may ask me if no measures have been taken. My answer will be, no certain measures have been taken. But these are not enough.

Then it becomes obvious that Turkey has to change the production and economic increase model. But as we receive signs of a preparation for early elections nobody seems to be willing to do this change and work on new models. That's why nobody should expect positive economic developments in the coming two years.