Delicate matters

The Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has strongly protested the rosy atmosphere that has seemed to develop between Ankara and Yerevan.

Although both President Gül and Prime Minister Erdoğan insistently assured the Baku government that without a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and unless Armenian troops withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories borders with Armenia will not be opened behind closed doors different matters are being negotiated, press reports say.

Meanwhile, another development in the Caucasus check game is a last minute decision encounter between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serge Sarkissian during the Minsk Group meeting that will be held in Prague on May 7.

Deeply concerned with the Turkish-Armenian dialogue that started last September when President Gül went to Yerevan to watch the Turkish-Armenian national teams' football match with Armenian President Sarkissian, Azerbaijani President Aliyev was outraged by the recent developments between Turkey and Armenia. "Is Ankara destroying our policy of one nation, two states? Are we being deceived by our Turkish brothers?" he exploded.

To top everything last week end the U.S. President Obama has delivered his long awaited speech for the anniversary of the so-called Armenian genocide. He didn't actually utter the word "genocide" but in Armenian he said, "A great disaster had happened." Obama's speech had a bombshell effect in Ankara whereas the Armenian diaspora, which expected Obama to pronounce the word "genocide," was deeply disillusioned.

The diaspora even accused Obama of not keeping his word he gave during his election campaign. Prime Minister Erdoğan said he considered Obama's speech as wanting to balance and satisfy all parties. "But I for my part am not satisfied," he said. President Gül said not only Armenians but millions of Turks also lost their lives during the incidents that happened in the First World War. Opposition CHP Leader Baykal strongly criticized Obama, saying, "He didn't say genocide but he admitted that he shared the Armenian diaspora's interpretation." Also MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli said, "Armenia is questioning Turkey’s integrity with her policies and Mr. Obama is in a way giving an easy hand with his April 24 speech."

Meanwhile, on the Azerbaijani front, the Baku government, in retaliation to Ankara's moves of rapprochement with Yerevan, is preparing to increase the price of natural gas it sells to Turkey. The announcement from Baku said the decision would be retroactive, starting from April 15. The increase in the price of Azerbaijani natural gas has created a strong reaction in Ankara. "The Azerbaijan Government's decision leaves room for great concern. To increase the price of natural gas while the price of oil is dropping is very surprising," said Prime Minister Erdoğan.

In Baku, Rövneg Abdullaev, the director of the Azerbaijan State Oil Company SOCAR, said, "We had signed the Shah Deniz Agreement in 2001. According to the agreement the price of natural gas we were selling to Turkey was $120. But since then as the prices have very much increased we had to make a raise."

Caucasus analysts say as Turkey moves toward a rapprochement with Armenia and Azerbaijan striking back at Ankara means it is moving closer to Russia. "But this move may not be to the benefit of Azerbaijan," these analysts added. It seems that in the coming weeks the political and diplomatic climate in the Caucasus region will become suffocatingly warm.