Be ready for an Armenian shock with Obama

Now there will be after shocks coming. Possibly these shocks will continue throughout the presidential period. The United States will have to go through a devastating test. How will a community that believes in the white race being the superior one, tolerate a black president?

Looking at the present scenario, we can conclude that the United States took an important step in reconciling its past. But we need to wait a while. We need to wait for the reaction of a section of people that have Negro hostility encoded in its genes, perceives every black person as inferior to himself or herself and as a slave. If we were to look at Obama’s relations that affect Turkey, contrary to some pessimists, the scenario does not look too bad. But there is one exception.

That is the Armenian issue …

Every Republican administration during election campaigns has said that it will support the Armenian lobby and twinkles at the issue. But after being elected, the administration’s attitudes become more flexible. They watches out for Turkey and prevent the genocide draft from passing through the congress. The most important and latest example was experienced during the Clinton administration.

But this time the situation is a little different. Obama’s team says they will keep their promise to Armenians. They draw attention to the fact that the new president is very sensitive about promises and he views Armenians as “oppressed people” and thus the message sent to Ankara turns into “Be prepared.” It is being advised that Ankara be prepared for two issues.

The first being to take new steps in relations with Armenia, starting by opening borders and thinking about new enterprises to improve relations with Yerevan. Within this context, it is stated that the genocide draft, which is to be re-sent to congress next April, will be postponed again. The second reason for the message “Be prepared” is the increase in the probability that the draft will pass through congress.

In recent years it has been very close for Turkey. The draft was stopped at the last minute. Every time relations between Ankara and Washington become tense, threats are exchanged. This combat exhausts and frays both sides. It is necessary to be prepared for this as well. We need to start preparations now if we do not want our relationship with Washington to come to a tearing point, or, in case the draft passes, we do not want to come to a point that could lead to the closing down of the base at Incirlik.

Will Turkey find its Obama?
Due to Obama’s election our writers are being asked the same question by those who closely watch Turkey; Will Turkey find its own Obama? One point everyone agrees on is that Turkey needs an Obama. Everybody hopes for Turkey to make peace with its past. This likelihood is so far out, that one becomes pessimistic.

Tayyip Erdoğan, for an important amount of people, is viewed as Turkey’s Obama. Destroying taboos, changing customs, a leader stepping out from formal ideology. He took brave steps. He addressed himself especially to the task of making peace among the government and citizens of Kurdish descent, as well as the pious section that views itself as being oppressed and pushed around. This situation did not last very long. The winds changed due to his political mistakes on one part and due to great resistance from fanatic opponents on the other.

Erdoğan, who started off like Obama, today is in the position of a former classical leader. Far from the administration and given up on his brave steps. He has become an aggressive Middle East politician who yells at those who criticize him.

What will happen next? We are still in search for an Obama who could take the necessary steps to make peace with our Kurdish citizens, behave realistically in Cyprus, communicate with Armenians and overcome a historic accusation, provide reconciliation on shared values between the pious and secular segments of people, manage problems that are dividing society in two. What would you say? Will Turkey find its own Obama?