Mehmet Ali Birand - English

Recently I met Ria Oomen-Ruijten, rapporteur of the European Parliament. As usual, she came to finish the annual report and the draft resolution based on this report. Ria is a parliamentarian who is extremely impartial, believes in the full membership of Turkey and wants the report to be realistic. Those who remember last year’s report will acknowledge my comments. The draft resolution regarding Turkey will in the weeks ahead be put to a vote in the general assembly of the European Parliament. If put together with the EU commission report, a balance sheet for 2008 and expectations for 2009 will come out. Ria reflects those doubts and concerns that I have heard in various capitals. She also shared her concerns with me. Her foremost concern was that the AKP was insensitive to reforms.

The same questions are asked over and over: "Why did the AKP stop?"

At times the question, "Did the AKP give up carrying Turkey into full membership?" is added. We should expect these kinds of questions to increase within the next few months. There is always the same assessment in the draft resolution that will be discussed, changes made if necessary and voted for in the European Parliament. It is accentuated that both the political parties and the society increasingly became polarized, separation deepened and as a result the reform process came to a halt. In summary, I’d say that Europe started to lose its former sympathy toward the AKP. Of course, within this development the separation of the AKP from the liberals plays an immense role.

Big applause in foreign politics
Steps taken in foreign politics are the most affirmative part in the draft resolution prepared by Ria. Peace attempts in the Middle East, contributions to dialogues between Israel and Palestine, the facilitation of debate between Syria and Israel, encouragement of dialogue between Iran and the West and of course President Gül’s visit to Armenia É It is becoming more obvious that from Turkey, there is more to gain for Europe. The European Parliament’s, at some time much bothering, attitude toward the DTP and PKK is progressively changing. Maybe there are still some who support the PKK and perceive them as "warriors of freedom," but the majority takes Ankara’s side.

Ria’s attitude is that way. For example, it is requested that the DTP keeps its distance from the terror organization PKK and this is embedded in the draft resolutions. Turkey’s battle against terrorism is supported. And in my view, what’s more important is that the PKK is asked to "immediately, unconditionally announce and practice a cease fire."

One other important sign from the European Parliament is its devotion to the administration of Iraq and especially Northern Iraq. It is requested that the Northern Iraq administration does not allow PKK attacks to arise from its territory. From Turkey it is requested that they extend dialogue with Barzani’s administration, take precautions in order not to harm civilians during air operations and to respect human rights. If we were to look at the big picture, the general attitude of the European Parliament is in favor of Turkey in some respects, but as for what to expect in 2009 it is full of doubt and concern.

For observers in Turkey, as well for those following relations in Europe, we are facing local elections. Relations between Turkey and the EU after the elections will become either more active or more difficult by the end of 2009. Turkey’s full membership project will altogether be shelved. This is why I see the AKP’s postponement of reforms as the last of reasons for local elections. If the AKP afterward still swings the lead it means this party has given up on the EU.

Obama cabinet gives hope, but..
The cabinet has been announced. Hillary Clinton being appointed as the secretary of state is in respect to us an extremely beneficial development. She is one of those who sympathizes and knows Turkey and its role in the region the best. The other important name is James Jones.

He is the former chief of NATO forces. His current duty (National Security Council) is heavily focused on Turkey. Being good friends with the General Chief of Staff General Başbuğ will ease the dialogue with transatlantic relations. Gates staying at the defense ministry and the appointment of Timothy Geithner to head of economics are advantageous for Ankara. But let’s not forget one point which is that Obama will be a totally different president.

Foremost the Armenian problem; we should not believe that Ankara’s every wish will come true. Obama is a man full of surprises. For that reason Ankara needs to calculate very well and produce different politics.

In the States every year a special report is published by the National Investigation Council, or NIC. It is called Global Tendencies: 2025. This report is constantly updated and it estimates what will be realized in the years to come. Do not get me wrong, it is not a report comprising conspiracy theories or articles written by fortune tellers. On the contrary, the U.S. investigation reports comprise all of Washington’s think tank and information from state capitals in the country. It is a report taken very seriously and paid attention to by political, economic and military decision makers.

The 2008 version has been published.

Take a look at estimates about Turkey:

"...Turkey for the next 15 years will follow politics where pious and ultra nationalistic lines are united... these tendencies will strengthen... Turkey’s pessimism regarding the EU full membership is growing... with such a probability the prospect of pious and ultra nationalistic trends will strengthen further..."

This is a perfectly right evaluation.

The biggest obstacle in front of our Turkey entering the European Union is the constantly swelling pious and ultra nationalist wave. Let me translate this idea into Turkish.

In the upcoming 10 years we should not expect any other party than the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, to become the administration in Turkey. It is estimated that even if another party is elected it will be one that is more pious than the AKP or a coalition between two parties that have a pious inclination.

In view of such a scene, Turkey will enter into a pious - ultra nationalistic pincer.

This is the biggest danger faced by a secular system.

It is important that Washington draws attention to this danger.

The indication that the real antidote of the secular system is the European Community reveals how vital the relations between Turkey and the European Union are for Turkey and in view of stability in the region.

This is the danger we are talking about...

The situation in Turkey is very bad.

Nationalists led by the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, are against the European Union.

The pious led by the AKP are negligent to E.U. relations.

Ultra nationalists led by the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, are waiting to exterminate the European Union as soon as they have the chance.

Let us also take a look outside, at E.U. capital cities.

When asked, almost everyone says that the full membership of Turkey is important for Europe. But this statement is followed by a "BUT" listing Turkey’s deficiencies. For some part they are right. Especially the slowdown and negligence of the AKP poses the biggest obstacle. This gives big countries like Germany and France an opportunity to prolong the process. On top of that, they create an atmosphere as if they behave fairly and as if they do not have an antagonizing attitude toward Turkey. In other words, with Turkey passing the ball, Germany and France are given the opportunity to play as they please. Who knows, maybe the AKP does it on purpose.

I was in Berlin recently. I had an opportunity to talk to German Prime Minister Merkel in length. At the beginning of our conversation I said, "I am not a journalist and you are not the prime minister. Please tell me, are you not aware that by hindering Turkey you are at some point endangering this country’s secular system? Or are you doing this on purpose?"

She told me her thoughts on the condition and I will not write them. I can not write what she exactly said but only tell you about her general approach.

Germany, in principle, believes that Turkey eventually needs to become a full member of the European Union. But not immediately. They need time. They are happy that Turkey does not exercise pressure. It makes it easier for them.

If I were to summarize, everything depends on Turkey.

In case Turkey becomes active, neither Germany nor France nor any other country will be able to stop Ankara... the problem arises from Turkey.

As I said upfront, neither the pious nor the nationalist nor the ultra nationalist... nobody thinks that far ahead. Or, on the contrary, they think that far ahead and as mentioned in the report from Washington do whatever they can to deliberately stop the course to the European Union. The nationalists who cherish secularism in Turkey please be informed: Instead of hindering the European Union, rather pull them to your side, for in the future the European Union will be our most important protective armor.

A the country’s economy is influenced by very different elements. Exports being more abundant than import, external sources being abundant and a strong general structure do not suffice. The attitude and body language of those who lead the economy, their assessment and what they say is very important. Especially in times when things go off the rails the roles of management step forward. Everybody watches the leaders. People analyze each sentence to evaluate if the person is in command of the situation. Society’s perception either increases the trust in leaders or, on the contrary, deepens the crisis. If we were to give an example, we can address what we lived through within the past few months.

In September, with the breakdown of Lehman Brothers and then sudden headlines about the financial crisis, it was first experienced in Turkey through the business world. And with daily news released from Washington regarding prevention packages, anxiety grew among the Turkish public. Everybody turned to Ankara...

As for Prime Minister Erdoğan he contented himself by saying: "Our Turkey will not be affected... the crises might only be a tangent... thank God the situation is not bad." He behaved very cold-bloodedly.

The prime minister behaved this way because he could not perceive communication politics very well and did not want to "agitate people." It was not because of a lack of information. What he could not account for was that the society already went beyond this discourse. People had already perceived the danger clearly and were, instead of mitigating, on the contrary watching news on how to take precautions against the crisis.

When the business world increased pressure in succession and made statements like "Ankara is insensitive... a plan is needed... there is no prevention package..., " the prime minister became angry. He perceived their warnings and expectations as a political conspiracy against him.

Ok the prime minister was behaving this way but what about those whom we entrusted with the wheel of the economy, the Treasurer Mehmet Şimşek, Minister of Finance Kemal Unakıtan, and Nazım Erken, in charge of economy probably stood in front of the people with the same approach in order not to contradict their boss. Either because they were afraid to talk to the prime minister or he did not listen to them but they could come up with a warning or prevention package for the crisis in order to reassure society.

That was up until the crisis came to a point where it could not be hidden anymore. Afterward the prime minister’s discourse changed and preparations (especially an agreement with the IMF) relieved the public to some extent.

Some might not be happy about this but I hear the business world often say, "If only Babacan would be in charge of the economy." His proximity to the prime minister and, what’s even more important, the trust he gives, even to his opponents, makes Babacan "the man of such days."

Babacan does not spare much time for his position EU prime negotiator anyway. Better to say, because there is no negotiation left with the EU, there is no need for a prime negotiator as well, and taking it from there, in case Babacan were to return to the wheel of economy insiders and outsiders would be very happy.

Hope PM is right
We are experiencing a weird argument regarding the global crisis that started in September.

Constant warnings came from the business world. It’s said the crisis will hit hard but in response the administration does not take precautions, and the agreement with the IMF is belated.

The prime minister says he won’t let the IMF strangle him.

On the weekend, he announced that the crisis had climaxed and that it has entered a stage of decline.

Nobody wants a crisis.

A crisis means unemployment.

Hope that Erdoğan’s prediction comes true. Meaning, that it won’t hit Turkey as hard as the rest and has really started to decline.

Nevertheless, it is a fact that society would like to see itself safe. No matter what anyone says but nobody is happy about the weeks of postponement of precautions and the unfinished agreement with the IMF.

A balance sheet will be made up by the end of 2009. Let’s see who is right and who is wrong. But in the end the oppressed part will be the employee, watching this discussion.

Isn’t it a pity?

It always there. Even though there was news about employees working illegally and out of surveillance, no one put an end to it. was Obscure government organizations within the state started in the 1970s firstly against the so-called "communists," but the number was limited. The real organizations spread with the military coup on Sept. 12, and got out of control in the 1990s in order to combat the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

In fact, we are facing a vicious circle.

On one side of the coin, there are government organizations that you all know. These act on "behalf of the nation," some are secular and fight for territorial integrity, some fight in the name of hunting PKK members or unbelievers.

A portion work legally. Formerly, grey wolves dominated this market. After Bahçeli rescued the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP’s youth branches from the streets, they were replaced by associations formed by retirees of a military background. Then there are groups half mafia half, "delinquent," who do anything in the name of nationalism.

The Ergenekon trial reveals the other side of the medal. We learn about incredible conspiracy. But that does not suffice. For the ones regarding Ergenekon are only puppets. The ones who really pull the strings and act illegally, sometimes administering, stimulating or turning a blind eye, are within the state of the Turkish Republic.

On almost each level there is an obscure organization. The police, the National Intelligence Organization, or MIT, military police and soldiers... Nobody should hide anything from each other, we all know that the state of the Turkish Republic supports illegal activity.

Each institution has created a special department under changing circumstances and changing ideology of leaders. Throughout the years, they have taken action against the PKK, some pious, some Christians.

Hrant Dink was killed and the police or military police have either closed their eyes to this or ignored it, for nobody confronted it. Priest Santoro and those working at the bookstore in Malatya were assassinated under the slogan, "missionaries must be destroyed," and again it turned out that behind the curtain the state was ignorant or encouraging. Again nobody reached the ones who were really responsible. Tuncay Güney was used by everyone and up front by MIT, but there was no trace of those pulling the strings. Wherever you turn it smells rotten.

In different organizations of the state there are liberties at liberty that have to be "stopped" at some point.

Ministry of Interior, the police, the MIT, the military police, soldiers and others, that are not on official duty or have created an "intelligence network" for some reason, all institutions from the ministry of national education to the health department, from municipalities to the directorate of religious affairs, should give a list of all departments incorporated within them. The Prime Ministry should then coordinate reorganization. In summary, Turkey should stop being a country where everybody is being taped, monitored and executed or punished without prior judgment.


From the world of books
You should definitely find a copy of the book titled, "Serkis Bu Toprakları Sevmişti," written by Faruk Bildirici and recently published by Doğan Kitap. I have never seen any work like it before where an Armenian of Turkish origin unites his feelings with his memory.

The book titled, "Mustafa Kemal ve Selanik Yaşamı," by Hristos K. Hristodulu and published by Telos addresses a part of Atatürk’s life that has not been seen much before. One of the most important writers in Greece, Hristodulu writes about the impact of Thessalonica on the young Republik.

Nebil Özgentürk’s book titled, "Cumhuriyetten Günümüze Basının Kısa Tarihi," has been published by Alfa. This book contains anecdotes and never-before-heard stories by 37 writers who tell about the media’s near history. In reality, we could call it Turkey’s story of democracy.

Muhsin Kızılkaya in his book has written memories about Mehmet Uzun’s life, who is the creator of a modern Kurdish novel. Those who are curious about Uzun’s life struggles should be informed about this book published by İthaki. The book, full of excellent memories, presents the intersection point of the Kurdish and Turkish people. Zeynel Lüle wrote about his grandfather, Ali Çavuş, Mustafa Kemal’s faithful friend. During the war of independence he shared important secrets and never left his side. A great work talking about the turbulent period between 1919 and 1925.

Şükran Soner’s new book, titled, "Bizim 68’liler," I especially recommend to our generation. We received a lot from the 68ers. They enlightened us. Sükran Soner was one of them and recites this period very well.

Jülide Gülizar’s "Ben Bilme Beyim Bilir," published by Sinemis writes about the difficulties of being a woman. She collects stories about womens’ lives in a world created by men. Ceyhun Bozkurt’s "Amerikalı Diplomatların Güneydoğu Faaliyetleri," published by Kripto, does not produce conspiracy theories. Starting out with some data, it questions what American diplomats pay attention to and what they want to do.

We have been experiencing a great discussion for days. I would like to summarize it the way it is reflected to the public. Then I will tell the truth. Everything started with the announcement made by Minister of Justice M. Ali Şahin in Çankırı, "five or six more inmates will be sent to İmralı, where Öcalan is." The opposition became upset when this news was released.

They set forth that the administration behaves this way to satisfy the European Community, whose real intent is to release Öcalan. While there was no need for it, the administration has put itself into a surrendering position. The administration, except for the announcement by the Minister of Justice, has kept quiet. It did not explain carefully to the public why this step needed to be taken. It behaved as if it was doing something shameful. So what is the truth? I talked to those who know the subject closely and to the European Council’s Committee for the Prevention of Torture. To tell the truth, I could not understand why the administration behaves as if it was guilty.

Below you will read about the reality:

1. I would like to start with a correction. Some put forth that the attempt regarding Öcalan arises from the European Community. However, it has nothing to do with the EU. It totally stirs from the European Committee.

2. The European Committee has an agreement on preventing torture. Turkey has signed it as well, meaning it needs to keep to the rules.

From the day that crises discussions started, I am not sure whether you ever noticed, but there was a striking difference in attitude between Ankara and the business world, foremost represented by Istanbul. For us, the concept "Ankara" is a mixture of bureaucrats-politicians-soldiers; meaning a portion of society receiving income from the state and bearing no risk of job loss. Whereas "Istanbul" is a concept comprising the business milieu. A mixture of employer-employee-artisan; meaning the portion of society that bears the risk. Employers have the biggest risk.

Employees as well, are affected in every way by the crisis. To put it this way, Ankara is comprised of people who are well-situated. Whereas Istanbul is represented by people who assume responsibility.

As Bilal Çetin, the representative of Vatan Gazetesi in Ankara, put it recently, the latest crises that we are living through shows the difference between Istanbul and Ankara very clearly.

There is excitement in Istanbul. Fear, even panic. People are concerned their employer will become bankrupt and thus they will be unemployed. That is why they constantly pressure the administration. They want the package to pass as soon as possible.

In such a situation the media furiously broadcast, "the crisis is coming, where are you?" Those who listen to Istanbul see a mood of panic. Behind closed doors precautions are taken incessantly in order to "tighten the belt." Employees are waiting in agitation. They are trying to figure out whether they will be laid off one day or not. They are bitterly trying to come up with what to do if they are laid off.

Ankara, on the other hand, monitors this scene cold-blooded. They have a look as if they are living in outer space. Taking one step further, they claim "these people, employers, try to screw money out of the state while calling it help."

They believe Istanbul is exaggerating everything. They describe Istanbul as the weakest link in the country.

This difference between Ankara and Istanbul is extremely important and as I see it, harmful. For let us not forget, if the private sector is unable to earn money then one day those in Ankara will reach a point where they will not receive their pay.

If Ankara does not accept that they are in the same boat and as long as it views the private sector as "grafters" and itself as "protector of state property," we will not escape our difficulties.

The latest meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbantyan and Babacan, and declarations thereafter, caused us to raise our hopes.

In the Caucasus everything might just change any minute. Therefore, we should not be too exited but our expectations still rise. Turkey and Armenia for the first time are able to really look each other in the eye. They seem to be convinced that easing relations will be beneficial for both.

Armenian front relaxes gradually
Yerevan finally wants to develop and enrich its population. Finally it plans on expanding and relaxing its relationship with Europe through Turkey. We should not expect Armenia to back off the genocide allegations. Generations have been brought up with the genocide belief and it has been branded into their skin.

We can not erase it. If we want to develop our relations we need to give up reservations. Easing relations will bring great advantages for both countries, Turkey and Armenia.

Turkey bears a heavy burden. Genocide allegations are unfortunately accepted all over the world. We can deny as much as we want but it is perceived as reality. If Turkey wants to ease its burden, it has no choice but to keep up good relations. It will not accept genocide allegations but learn to live with them. Armenian’s advantage will be reached through finally stepping onto the right track with Turkey.

There is no end to living with genocide allegations. The time has finally come to see the truth and establish an order that better responds to its people’s needs.

My only concern within this Turkish-Armenian approach is that militants on both sides will sabotage development. They will definitely do this, you will see. They will push and pull, and try to ruin everything. Let us see if those who embrace this approach will behave smart and be successful.

A different perspective was created by the incidence where Deniz Beykal gave a woman in a chador a badge. One of the most important reasons for solidifying in opposition in Turkey is wearing/supporting a chador or not. If Baykal does not give up and continues this attitude, then Turkey will be in for a huge change. An important part of this country prefers to cover up, for some reason. You might say it is pressure from families or husbands. But they cover up for whatever reason.     

They are being judged by our "silahşör," better to say secularists, who say people who support the chador are opponents of secularism. Under these circumstances the opposition is more solidified.

One front is represented by the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and those parties close to them, the other by the Republican People’s Party, or CHP.

The AKP’s view and approach is obvious. It uses the headscarf like a symbol. It embraces those who cover themselves. It understands them very well and receives votes in exchange. Those who cover themselves eventually find themselves on the AKP’s side whether they share the same beliefs or not, whether they like the leaders of this party or not. We cannot suggest that everyone who covers up will absorb or prefer the AKP. Among the reasons for these people to lean toward the AKP is being out cast by secularists.

When did we make an effort to understand these people? Never.

We just expelled them. Some of us named them bogeymen or even black beetle.

We described them as enemies of the secular system. We did not think they accepted covering up as a personal preference. We did not think that secularism is not just running around uncovered.

While we expressed such a stringent attitude, an important section of them saw us as the enemy of religion. They did not spend any effort to understand what we meant by secularism. We came this far within a dialogue where we are deaf.

The secular saw the CHP as a castle. They shut their eyes to the admittance of people with a headscarf, but everything changed when those who support the chador tried to force their way into the castle.

Deniz Baykal is taking an historical step today. If he does not give up under these constraints and continues, he might pave the way for Turkey. In other words, if he does not cast out women who wear the chador but embraces them, the speed of separation between those who support the chador or not might slow down and a compromise might be reached in the future. Those with a headscarf or a chador might even find a place in the CHP. They might continue with their preferences and get rid of seeing the AKP as the sole place to run. My biggest hope is that Baykal takes steps with courage and stops the separation of Turkey into unbelievers and covered people. If the CHP includes people who support the chador, it will understand Turkey better.

Let us make a brand new start.

If Baykal fails, we will live through such a separation we will not be able to stop. We will never understand each other.

If Baykal fails, it will be very difficult to find a party to overthrow the AKP. At this rate Turkey will gradually lose its secularism.

For all these reasons I want Baykal to succeed. It is obvious that this is not simply hunting for votes.

If we fight against the admittance of people who support the chador, to the party that we see as the castle of secularism, then after a while even if the CHP does not close its doors we will continue our lives in this immense castle as a small group.

Protecting a castle does not mean to reinforce its walls, but to make them more lucid meaningful, to understand people who do not think the way we do, do not dress like we do or are not like us.

My biggest expectation is to see this immense change in the CHP. Then I will give my blessing with my vote in the upcoming elections, believing I did the right thing.  

I have kept hearing the same scenario ever since I was a child. "Turkey will be split some day... Foreign and domestic forces will reach their goal, hand in hand..."

We all were taught this. The Ottoman Empire that was broken into pieces, due to foreign and domestic influences, was given as an example, and fear was instilled in us. The Treaty of Sevres was also presented as a symbol of this fear. This was all true of course. The Ottoman Empire shrank and was split into pieces because of poor management as we claimed the young republic led by Atatürk and created a new order. It is only natural that society in this country, having moved through such dangerous periods, needs to be reminded of lessons learned from its history. For I believe we went too far. We only filled the heads of the young with the fear of a split in the country.

Now, 85 years have passed and the world has changed completely. Turkey, compared to the past, has become incredibly powerful and self-confident, but despite all this we still experience the fear that the country will be split. I do not want to argue about whether this fear reflects the truth. For I do not believe this country could be split. And I know that Turkey is strong and this fear is totally insubstantial. But if this fear is present in society and gradually spreads, we need to look for the reasons.

One of the foremost reasons is the proliferation of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. The fear of a split has increased among some people due to three reasons. The administration does not take the necessary action on the Kurdish issue. Secondly it withdraws just as it takes the right steps and spreads the impression the armed forces have not obtained any results in their fight against terrorists. And thirdly, the continuation of the wave of terror, of course.

This is why the number of people obtaining a shot gun is increasing. Also increasing is the number of people who hunt PKK members for the sake of saving the country, and those who gang up against people who oppose the ideology of the state. The attitude of the government regarding the symbolization of the headscarf also spreads the fear of a split. The separation of Turkey into secular and pious segments really scares some parts of society.