Are early general elections in the cards for Turkey in 2010?

Let me elaborate a little. The morning after the polls, Republican People’s Party, or CHP, leader Deniz Baykal seemed happy to have a 2.5-point increase in votes. "The results show that an early election is unnecessary," he said. Behind his remarks, the approach was to help wear out the government until the general elections in July 2011 and to create an advantage for the CHP.

The governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, gained 34 percent of votes in the 2002 general elections, 42 percent in the 2004 local polls and 47 percent in the 2007 general elections, but lost momentum in the last seven years on March 29 and regressed to 38 percent of votes. Baykal was implying that the AKP would be worn down after seven years, and the process would speed up in the next two years.

As the CHP won 23 percent and the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP won 16 percent of votes in the middle of the economic crisis, could the AKP’s speedy recovery period bring about early elections? This is being voiced behind the closed doors in Parliament. A representative I ran across says, "This is not surprising. Expecting an early election for today is not realistic. Even 38 percent carries the AKP to the government, but after this one-and-a-half year recovery period, it is more realistic to expect an early election in mid-2010."

After the AKP overcomes the negative impact of the local polls and revises the Cabinet, it will take the stage again and push for 40 percent and above. If the AKP can manage this and goes for an early election in 2010, the opposition’s fears come true. And Prime Minister Erdoğan is a leader open to all kinds of surprises.

SECOND ARTICLE

A Kurdish initiative by Karayalçın

As the CHP reached the 23 percent level, we began to see smiling faces around. But the overall picture reflects that the CHP can win on Turkey’s coasts but does not even exist in Central Anatolia and especially in eastern and southeastern Anatolia. If the CHP cannot win Kurdish votes, it will be less likely for them to catch up to the AKP. However, Baykal’s excessive "nationalist" approach in the past has harmed the party in the Southeast. Could the CHP overcome this? Former Socialist People’s Party, or SHP, leader Murat Karayalçın was the CHP’s Ankara nominee in this election. Karayalçın had allied with the pro-Kurdish HADEP under the name of Democratic Union of Forces in 2004. In the pre-election period, Baykal approved the black chador initiative. So what will he say to a "Kurdish initiative by Karayalçın"? We’ll see next term.

THIRD ARTICLE

Mayor gets sums right

Mustafa Akaydın of the CHP became mayor-elect in Antalya. And I had a chance to exchange a few words with him during the elections campaign. Seeming confident, Akaydın said, "I won university presidential elections by 40 percent. And I will win local polls by the same percentage." The elections are over, and results are in. Akaydın won by 40.79 percent. Apparently, he hit the bull’s-eye. The new mayor of Antalya promises to turn this holiday resort into a "tourism heaven" in the winter. We’ll see if he can do this.