The biggest trump card against the crisis: Iraq!

As you know, the United States decided to pull out of Iraq by the end of 2011. And we are now worried about whether we will have permission from Iraq to hit the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, as the authority on the entire of Iraq will rest with the Iraqi army as of 2009. However, there is something more important about this decision which affects us deeply.  Â

Shiite Leader Muqtada al Sad forming a militia army, Mahdi Army, with his thousands supporters announced he will not recognize any agreement with United States and will resist until the United States withdraws from Iraq completely. Al Sadr believes the United States made a truce not with the Iraqi people but with Kurds only, i.e. Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barzani.

Iran backs al Sadr and some Sunni groups support him for not complying with the agreement signed between the United States and Iraq regarding the pull-out.

Al Sadr had not recognized the U.S.-led Iraqi Temporary Government and declared the formation of an alternative government. When the Sadr region was surrounded by U.S. forces and with Shiite leaders’ mediation al Sadr had stepped back.

If he is not convinced, even civil war may be an issue in Iraq not alone reaching an agreement. As I wrote many times, ever-fighting Sunni and Shiite in Iraq may form an alliance against Kurds following a U.S. pull-out. A civil war right before our noses and the eventual disintegration of Iraq may be the case. So Turkey should make calculations of, "what will we do in case of an Iraqi civil war," rather than "from whom will we have permission for an airborne attack?"

It is for sure that as the United States withdraws from Iraq, either this or that way, Iraq will see Kurds in the Northern Iraqi Administration as its closest ally and for the sake of it, Iraq needs a stable Turkey.

The future of northern Iraq is quite relevant to Turkey’s consent to be its patron.

Ercan Kumcu of daily Hürriyet wrote in an article on Nov. 24, 2008, that countries not having convertible monetary units cannot remedy the economic crisis by pumping up hot cash to markets while having loose finance policies. We are a country that has no other option but to find foreign resources and the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, is our key anchor.

"The third group is countries trying to reach a stand-by agreement with the IMF. What they have common is that they have a current transaction deficit in general and have foreign exchange reserves that are not enough to allow them to loosen up monetary and finance policies. Turkey is in this category," Ercan Kumcu wrote.

Developed countries with a convertible monetary unit should claim the countries in the third category for the sake of their own benefits. However, Turkey is only one of the countries in this category. What I want to emphasize here is that Turkey is among these countries due to the Iraqi issue and is distinguishable due to the Iraqi issue!

The developed countries, primarily the United States, will definitely need Turkey as part of their strategy about the U.S. withdrawal. So they have to consider that Turkey needs to take place among the countries least affected by the crisis.

I am sure that someone has already shared, or will share, this with the IMF officials. And I hope Turkey will make a good use of this advantage!