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Kesici’s election comments
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I believe İlhan Kesici is one of the best politicians on the economy. I asked him to share his comments on the March 29 elections. I’ve summarized his notes below:
"Three common rights determine voters’ behavior: a) Cultural values: World view: right-left. b) His election of parties: It means elaborating on the above. c) The party leader and his staff."
Between the July 22, 2007, general elections and the March 29 local elections, there was almost no change in any of these, but only a change of the Saadet (Felicity) Party leader and his staff. Even the election campaigns were alike. But an extraordinary situation occurred between the two election periods: the economy!
***
The summary results are as follows:
1) Growth: It is the key indicator, so important that at times other indicators may not be needed. Between 2003 and July 22, 2007:
a) 2003: 5.3 percent, b) 2004: 9.4 percent, c) 2005: 8.4 percent, d) 2006: 6.9 percent, e) 2007: 6.0 percent during the first six months.
Average growth between 2003 and before July 22, 2007: 7.2 percent!
The figure allows any party in any countries to win elections. So it did happen in Turkey.
Between July 2007 and pre-election 2009: a) 2007: The second six months: 3.7 percent, b) 2008: 1.1 percent.
Between the July 22, 2007 elections and end of 2008: Average 2.4 percent!
In 2008, the fourth quarter: -6.2 percent!
In 2009, the first quarter: Not announced yet; it will likely be around -10 percent.
Between July 22, 2007, and March 29 elections: Average 1.7 percent!
(Economic growth drops from 7.2 percent to 1.7 percent. (CU)) The growth of the last six months is -6.2 percent. These figures are enough to topple any government in any country.
***
2) Stock Exchange:
It is the second important indicator of the economy. In the July 22, 2007, general election period, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, leader Deniz Baykal: "Mr. Baykal, look at the stock exchange [figures].")
July 2007: Istanbul Stock Exchange: 58,800 points.
Present: 23,000-25,000 points (Dow Jones: 13,300 and 8,000 points)
***
3) Foreign exchange:
U.S. dollar/Turkish Liras: July 2007: $1 = 1.27 TL. After March 29 elections: $1=1.70-1.80 TL.
***
4) Some indexes:
July 2007Dec. 2008
The Central Bank
Real sector
confidence index11252
Overall index10832
Turkey Statistics Institute (TUIK)
Consumer
confidence index9770
This is it! Of course, a single factor cannot be enough to explain anything in the world. But the most important factor having an impact on voters’ choice in the March 29 local polls is a bad economic situation.
Between the July 22, 2007, general elections and the March 29 local elections, there was almost no change in any of these, but only a change of the Saadet (Felicity) Party leader and his staff. Even the election campaigns were alike. But an extraordinary situation occurred between the two election periods: the economy!
***
The summary results are as follows:
1) Growth: It is the key indicator, so important that at times other indicators may not be needed. Between 2003 and July 22, 2007:
a) 2003: 5.3 percent, b) 2004: 9.4 percent, c) 2005: 8.4 percent, d) 2006: 6.9 percent, e) 2007: 6.0 percent during the first six months.
Average growth between 2003 and before July 22, 2007: 7.2 percent!
The figure allows any party in any countries to win elections. So it did happen in Turkey.
Between July 2007 and pre-election 2009: a) 2007: The second six months: 3.7 percent, b) 2008: 1.1 percent.
Between the July 22, 2007 elections and end of 2008: Average 2.4 percent!
In 2008, the fourth quarter: -6.2 percent!
In 2009, the first quarter: Not announced yet; it will likely be around -10 percent.
Between July 22, 2007, and March 29 elections: Average 1.7 percent!
(Economic growth drops from 7.2 percent to 1.7 percent. (CU)) The growth of the last six months is -6.2 percent. These figures are enough to topple any government in any country.
***
2) Stock Exchange:
It is the second important indicator of the economy. In the July 22, 2007, general election period, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan urged the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, leader Deniz Baykal: "Mr. Baykal, look at the stock exchange [figures].")
July 2007: Istanbul Stock Exchange: 58,800 points.
Present: 23,000-25,000 points (Dow Jones: 13,300 and 8,000 points)
***
3) Foreign exchange:
U.S. dollar/Turkish Liras: July 2007: $1 = 1.27 TL. After March 29 elections: $1=1.70-1.80 TL.
***
4) Some indexes:
July 2007Dec. 2008
The Central Bank
Real sector
confidence index11252
Overall index10832
Turkey Statistics Institute (TUIK)
Consumer
confidence index9770
This is it! Of course, a single factor cannot be enough to explain anything in the world. But the most important factor having an impact on voters’ choice in the March 29 local polls is a bad economic situation.
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