Perspectives on Turkey

The assessments of the three eminent speakers require no further comment as they vividly demonstrated the drift in Turkey.

Soner Cagaptay

"The Justice and Development Party (AKP) is shaping Turkish society in its own image, promoting social conservatism through administrative acts. It is not religiosity that is on the rise in Turkey, but rather government-infused social conservatism. Indications of social conservatism, such as women wearing Islamic-style headscarves (turbans), are used as benchmarks to obtain government appointments, promotions, and contracts. Social conservatism, however, is not in itself the problem, and a conservative Turkey can certainly be European. The problem is that a government-led project of this type is incompatible with the idea of a liberal democracy. And given Turkey's nature as an elite project, AKP-led social conservatism is reshaping Turkish society. ... The new AKP elite are also reshaping Turkish foreign policy. In the past, Turkey's foreign policy paradigm centered on the promotion of national interests vested in the West. Today, the paradigm is based on a civilizational view of the world, manifested by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent treatment of events in the Gaza Strip and Sudan. The government's sympathy for Hamas and harsh remarks for Israel's attack on civilians coincided with an Ankara visit by the Sudanese vice-president as his government faced charges on genocide at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

The AKP cares if Muslims are killed by non-Muslims, but not if Muslims kill Muslims. For the AKP, the problem in the Middle East is not violence or human suffering, but rather Muslims suffering at the hands of non-Muslims. The subsequent anti-Western, anti-U.S., and anti-Israeli view is the new paradigm promoted by pundits, think tanks, and newspapers close to the AKP. This paradigm drives public opinion, which is becoming increasingly anti-Western and anti-American. And because Turkey is a democracy, public opinion matters. Sooner or later, the anti-Western views will cripple Turkey's foreign policy partnership with the West."

Mark Parris

"Many know the concept of Occam's Razor: If a problem has two explanations, go with the simpler one. For example, one can view Erdoğan as anxious to pack the Turkish bureaucracy with people who share his world view, who display paranoia toward the press, whose vision is limited to the next elections, and whose enthusiasm for the United States and Europe is tied to a calculation of "what can you do for me." From this, you can conclude either of two things: that Erdoğan has a secret agenda and wants to impose an Islamic paradigm on Turkey, or that he shares the same political culture as his predecessors, is acting much the same way they did, and is not retreating from the democratic ideal. ... In terms of foreign policy, the AKP's record is marked by Turkey's closeness to Sudan, Russia and Iran, and paints an alarming picture. But it is not only Turkey that is getting closer to Sudan Ğ Russia is as well. One can look at these changes and see a shift toward an anti-U.S., or even anti-Semitic, picture."


Ian Lesser

"The global economic crisis will eventually have an effect on Turkish foreign policy. The implications of getting Turkey into the EU have become more costly with the current international market instability and Turkey will be seen as a greater potential burden by European countries during accession talks. ... The AKP's changes to Turkish foreign policy are not merely the party's project anymore. All Turks embrace them. What is dangerous about this shift in orientation is not necessarily its direction, but the fact that it is neither focused nor well prioritized." Tomorrow, I will try to cover the discussions of the three analysts regarding what should be the Obama administration's policy towards Turkey.