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Can there be a Cyprus referendum in 2009?
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There is optimism among most Cyprus watchers nowadays that the island could indeed move this year toward a resolution of its over four decades-old problem. Many people are anticipating a simultaneous but separate referenda by the two peoples of the island on a Cyprus peace plan devised by Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias and his Turkish counterpart, Mehmet Ali Talat.
Indeed, news coming from Cyprus indicates the two leaders have almost completed discussions on the "property ownership" chapter as well and that probably by the end of April the first reading of all five chapters will be completed. There are claims as well that Turkish Cypriot leader Talat has finally secured support of the U.N. special envoy, Alexander Downer, as well as the United States and the British regarding a timetable according to which the two leaders will complete a deal by the end of August and submit in November the plan for the creation of a new partnership state on the eastern Mediterranean island to separate but simultaneous referenda of the two peoples of Cyprus.
According to this timetable, by the end of April the two leaders Ñ and at a lower level a joint team co-headed by Özdil Nami from northern Turkish Cyprus and George Iacovou of the southern Greek Cyprus Ñ will complete the first reading in all five chapters. So far, the two leaders have completed first reading in the "Matters related to governance" and "Property issues" chapters and are planning to move on within a week or so on to the "European Union matters and Economy" chapter.
After the completion of the first reading in April, there will be a short time off for Talat and Christofias during which their aides Nami and Iacovou will prepare a report on "Issues agreed," "Issues partly agreed" and "Issues where there is no convergence of views of the two sides."
The second reading by the two leaders will start in middle May and the two leaders will concentrate only on the "Issues partly agreed" and "Issues where there is no convergence of views of the two sides." The second reading will be completed by the end of August and after a short break during which a report will again be prepared by Nami and Iacovou, in early September the two leaders will engage in a give-and-take round of talks. In this last phase unlike the two meeting a week routine of the first two rounds, the two leaders will meet every day.
That final third round of discussions between the two leaders is expected to be completed by the end of October. Thus, late in November the two peoples of the island will go to the booths for a second time in five years to vote in simultaneous but separate referenda on a peace plan. If the plan written by Talat and Christofias receive support of the two peoples of the island, then a new partnership state will be established on the island.
The other side of the coin
Despite this optimistic note, however, the Greek Cypriot side has so far never accepted a timetable in the current talk’s process. Greek Cypriot leader Christofias has been stressing that there should be no time pressure on the talks and the Cypriot parties should be left to discuss an agreement under the principle "A Cypriot agreement for Cypriots."
Secondly, the Greek Cypriot side is particularly against involvement of Turkey, Greece or Britain in the process in any form even though they are the three guarantor powers. One of the aims of the talks, according to Greek Cypriots, has been to get rid of all foreign troops. Thus, one aim of the negotiations is to abrogate the 1960 guarantee system (a non-starter for Turkish Cypriots). Thirdly, the Greek Cypriot side is against a daily uninterrupted give-and-take session.
Furthermore, the 2004 plan faltered not just because of some unacceptable security arrangements or because the document allowed continued stay of some limited number of Turkish troops on the island. Rather it collapsed because Greek Cypriots refused to share power in administration on the basis of equality with Turkish Cypriots. So far there are no signs that there is a change in that approach of Greek Cypriots.
According to this timetable, by the end of April the two leaders Ñ and at a lower level a joint team co-headed by Özdil Nami from northern Turkish Cyprus and George Iacovou of the southern Greek Cyprus Ñ will complete the first reading in all five chapters. So far, the two leaders have completed first reading in the "Matters related to governance" and "Property issues" chapters and are planning to move on within a week or so on to the "European Union matters and Economy" chapter.
After the completion of the first reading in April, there will be a short time off for Talat and Christofias during which their aides Nami and Iacovou will prepare a report on "Issues agreed," "Issues partly agreed" and "Issues where there is no convergence of views of the two sides."
The second reading by the two leaders will start in middle May and the two leaders will concentrate only on the "Issues partly agreed" and "Issues where there is no convergence of views of the two sides." The second reading will be completed by the end of August and after a short break during which a report will again be prepared by Nami and Iacovou, in early September the two leaders will engage in a give-and-take round of talks. In this last phase unlike the two meeting a week routine of the first two rounds, the two leaders will meet every day.
That final third round of discussions between the two leaders is expected to be completed by the end of October. Thus, late in November the two peoples of the island will go to the booths for a second time in five years to vote in simultaneous but separate referenda on a peace plan. If the plan written by Talat and Christofias receive support of the two peoples of the island, then a new partnership state will be established on the island.
The other side of the coin
Despite this optimistic note, however, the Greek Cypriot side has so far never accepted a timetable in the current talk’s process. Greek Cypriot leader Christofias has been stressing that there should be no time pressure on the talks and the Cypriot parties should be left to discuss an agreement under the principle "A Cypriot agreement for Cypriots."
Secondly, the Greek Cypriot side is particularly against involvement of Turkey, Greece or Britain in the process in any form even though they are the three guarantor powers. One of the aims of the talks, according to Greek Cypriots, has been to get rid of all foreign troops. Thus, one aim of the negotiations is to abrogate the 1960 guarantee system (a non-starter for Turkish Cypriots). Thirdly, the Greek Cypriot side is against a daily uninterrupted give-and-take session.
Furthermore, the 2004 plan faltered not just because of some unacceptable security arrangements or because the document allowed continued stay of some limited number of Turkish troops on the island. Rather it collapsed because Greek Cypriots refused to share power in administration on the basis of equality with Turkish Cypriots. So far there are no signs that there is a change in that approach of Greek Cypriots.
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