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At least we found the saddle!
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If we try to explain the election results with that famous story that in order to make happy His loved one, God first gets his donkey lost and then helps him find it, we may say that we could not find the donkey but at least we found its saddle.
Excluding some arch-allegiant newspapers and TV stations, by and large almost the entire Turkish media united Monday in describing Sunday’s local polls as a "strong warning" to the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government or as a popular "one minute" intervention, making an allusion to the "one minute" outburst of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the Davos conference on Gaza Strip.
This was of course a local elections that could not have an impact on the national government. Parliamentary elections are two years away. The first-ever (excluding the 1983 plebiscite that elected coup leader Kenan Evren as president also) popular vote for the president is three years away. Still, in a way the local polls was a rehearsal of both the next parliamentary elections and the presidential poll and in this most trustworthy public opinion poll the ruling AKP and more so Prime Minister Erdoğan was told by the nation that a downfall has started. Indeed, this was the first-ever election that the AKP has seen its votes plummet compared to the previous election, though the increased collective vote of the two biggest opposition parties still hardly make the 39 percent vote the AKP received in municipal assembly elections. Still, 39 percent is less than the 47 percent the AKP received in the July 2007 parliamentary or the 42 percent the ruling party received in the 2004 local polls and is definitely the nation showing the AKP a "yellow card."
If we are to concentrate on what were the messages of the nation in this local polls, we have to underline that as much as they were a "yellow card" to Erdoğan’s arrogance, yelling at the opposition and the oppression of the critical media, over confidence, nepotism, and absolute ruler obsession, the results were also heralding the popular demand for the resumption of the reform drive on the one hand and a declaration by the nation that election bribery may not pay off all the time. Though Erdoğan preferred to ignore the impacts of economic crisis on the masses, the results showed as well the discontent with the poor economic performance of the AKP government. The results were as well a strong warning to the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, that in order to become an alternative to the AKP it needs to reform its worldview, program and of course leadership.
Was it not interesting to see something like a horse race in Ankara and Istanbul elections where the CHP narrowly lost the mayoral elections to the AKP? Was it not interesting to see Istanbul candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu winning some 15 percentage points higher than the average 23 percent vote the CHP received in this elections? If Kılıçdaroğlu was made a candidate from Istanbul in a bid to kill prospects of his political elevation, then Baykal has made a very serious mistake because for the first time in many years there is now a very strong alternative to Baykal as the leader of the CHP.
On the other hand, Sunday’s election showed the return of the Islamist Saadet (or Felicity) Party, or SP, and its new leader Numan Kurtulmuş. Even though the SP received only slightly more than 5 percent of the overall vote, with its new leader the party indeed tripled its electoral support compared to 2004. The National Movement Party, or MHP, on the other hand, has approached its 1999 level of 18 percent by winning 16 percent of the vote on Sunday, an almost three percentage points more than what it received in the 2007 polls.
Geographical divide
The results also showed a very deep geographical divide in the country. While the Southeast mostly went to the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, almost the entire Mediterranean coastline, the Aegean and Thracian Turkey have gone to the CHP, the Black Sea region was dominated by the CHP and the MHP, while central Anatolian regions have become the AKP’s powerbase, though the AKP maintained a strong presence throughout the country. Bottom-line is that in an election which was not traumatized with secularist concerns but concentrated more on economy, corruption allegations and charges of nepotism, electorate has found the saddle of the lost donkey by serving AKP a very strong warning. This election has produced a result with long-term consequences.
This was of course a local elections that could not have an impact on the national government. Parliamentary elections are two years away. The first-ever (excluding the 1983 plebiscite that elected coup leader Kenan Evren as president also) popular vote for the president is three years away. Still, in a way the local polls was a rehearsal of both the next parliamentary elections and the presidential poll and in this most trustworthy public opinion poll the ruling AKP and more so Prime Minister Erdoğan was told by the nation that a downfall has started. Indeed, this was the first-ever election that the AKP has seen its votes plummet compared to the previous election, though the increased collective vote of the two biggest opposition parties still hardly make the 39 percent vote the AKP received in municipal assembly elections. Still, 39 percent is less than the 47 percent the AKP received in the July 2007 parliamentary or the 42 percent the ruling party received in the 2004 local polls and is definitely the nation showing the AKP a "yellow card."
If we are to concentrate on what were the messages of the nation in this local polls, we have to underline that as much as they were a "yellow card" to Erdoğan’s arrogance, yelling at the opposition and the oppression of the critical media, over confidence, nepotism, and absolute ruler obsession, the results were also heralding the popular demand for the resumption of the reform drive on the one hand and a declaration by the nation that election bribery may not pay off all the time. Though Erdoğan preferred to ignore the impacts of economic crisis on the masses, the results showed as well the discontent with the poor economic performance of the AKP government. The results were as well a strong warning to the main opposition Republican People’s Party, or CHP, that in order to become an alternative to the AKP it needs to reform its worldview, program and of course leadership.
Was it not interesting to see something like a horse race in Ankara and Istanbul elections where the CHP narrowly lost the mayoral elections to the AKP? Was it not interesting to see Istanbul candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu winning some 15 percentage points higher than the average 23 percent vote the CHP received in this elections? If Kılıçdaroğlu was made a candidate from Istanbul in a bid to kill prospects of his political elevation, then Baykal has made a very serious mistake because for the first time in many years there is now a very strong alternative to Baykal as the leader of the CHP.
On the other hand, Sunday’s election showed the return of the Islamist Saadet (or Felicity) Party, or SP, and its new leader Numan Kurtulmuş. Even though the SP received only slightly more than 5 percent of the overall vote, with its new leader the party indeed tripled its electoral support compared to 2004. The National Movement Party, or MHP, on the other hand, has approached its 1999 level of 18 percent by winning 16 percent of the vote on Sunday, an almost three percentage points more than what it received in the 2007 polls.
Geographical divide
The results also showed a very deep geographical divide in the country. While the Southeast mostly went to the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, almost the entire Mediterranean coastline, the Aegean and Thracian Turkey have gone to the CHP, the Black Sea region was dominated by the CHP and the MHP, while central Anatolian regions have become the AKP’s powerbase, though the AKP maintained a strong presence throughout the country. Bottom-line is that in an election which was not traumatized with secularist concerns but concentrated more on economy, corruption allegations and charges of nepotism, electorate has found the saddle of the lost donkey by serving AKP a very strong warning. This election has produced a result with long-term consequences.
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