Democracy in Pakistan

Despite my efforts, I could not persuade anybody to publish, not even a small-scale magazine on foreign policy which follows current matters. The media’s interest in world affairs is very low. Important developments have lately appeared in Pakistan but these were barely covered by Turkish media especially because of the upcoming local elections.

Whereas, intertwined Afghanistan -Pakistan problem, or "AfPak", has started to get a more central place on the international platform. It shadows Iraq issues in U.S. foreign policy and becomes crucial in terms of the U.S.-Iran relations.

After Benazir Bhutto was killed, Pakistan’s former President Pervez Musharraf, who is a military man, had to resign from his post because of pressure.

Then, transition to civilian rule, or "democratization", has created a chaotic atmosphere and Pakistan has started to be called a "failed state."

Lately, another quasi attempt for democratization has materialized. Pakistani President Asif Zerdari, who is Bhutto’s husband, bowed to pressure and reinstated the Head of High Court Chaudhry and showed political weakness.Currently, the ways are politically open for conservative Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N’s president Nawaz Sharif.

Although Benazir Bhutto was the most powerful political leader ahead of last year’s general elections, which led to Musharraf’s resignation, I sensed the course of events, namely Sharif’s rise, in a "queer" way and wrote about it (published in Doğudan Magazine, January-February 2008).

Moreover, Bhutto had not yet been assassinated yet. I do not have ability of prophecy nor am I an expert on Pakistan.

It was just my efforts to follow the course of events and to establish links between the clues.

When considered that even I can make such predictions, the former U.S. foreign policy bureaucrat and Brooking Institute’s expert S.Philip Cohen’s foresights in his book "The Idea of Pakistan", which was printed in 2004, are not surprising. Cohen wrote that according to the West, the solution for Pakistan lies in a "staged" power transfer.

Further, he foresaw that a well-timed and "theatrical" event will make the power transfer from the military to the civilians during Pakistan’s transition to democracy, or its "staged" process (pg.160). As a matter of fact, Bhutto assassination led the way for Musharraf’s resignation.

Currently, Pakistan faces with a dilemma between democracy and international oppression. Democratic oppression, or the oppression of the public opinion, is against the U.S. and the West’s demand from Pakistan to make a complete cooperation against Taliban and radical Islamists in Afghanistan.

However, it is strange that the Western world sides with Nawaz Sharif, who did not openly promise a complete cooperation. In such a case, is it possible to appreciate the Western world, saying they respect democratic process despite their own profits? If we were living in a different world, this would be possible. However, we have to take into account the subtle calculations to comprehend the events in this world.

The subtle calculation is; world powers, especially the United States prefer to cooperate with "conservatives" once again on the grounds that this is a world where fighting against radical Islam is impossible through cooperation with political movements and leaders whose supporters are weak, and soldiers with whom they cooperated in the past.

This is not an incomprehensible issue. Moreover, it is wrong to understand this only as a "Western game." Indeed, one cannot deny that conservative society’s political rise in a Muslim world is a sign of democratic dynamic.

However, if we remember the recent history of Muslim societies, it is misleading to consider the religion factor in politics only as a sign of democratic dynamics.



Nuray Mert is a columnist for the daily Radikal in which this piece appeared yesterday. It was translated into English by the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review's staff