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People are not dumb, election results say
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During Turkey’s "post-modern coup" of 1997, one of the powerful generals, Çevik Bir, said something remarkable. "What we are doing," he pompously argued, "is to do some fine-tuning to democracy." One of his colleagues, Gen. İsmail Hakkı Karadayı, is also reported to have explained the need for this military intervention in politics. "The problem," he said, "is that the people in this country are ignorant."
The case for the same "fine-tuning" in the face of a dumb society was championed again, more recently, because of the ascendance of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP. Some pundits have been telling us that the AKP was "fooling the unwashed masses" by either "exploiting religion" or bribing them with welfare campaigns. Democracy was "luxurious" for Turkey, according to this line of thinking, because society was simply not mature enough to make sensible choices.
A Stalingrad?
I think that argument was refuted, for the umpteenth time, in the local elections of last Sunday. The decline in the votes of the incumbent AKP, a remarkable 7 percent, indicated that the electorate is neither foolish nor blind.
The reasons for that decline are hotly debated in the Turkish media these days. Some pundits argue that the secularists’ fear that the country is being Islamized manifested itself in the polls. (While I find that fear often paranoid, I believe the fear itself is a fact that deserves attention.) Others think that the economic crisis, and the unimpressive way the government has handled it, played a big role. The prime minister’s unnecessary war of words with the media, and his chronic problem with anger management, is also shown as a factor. Others point out that the AKP’s rhetoric on the Kurdish question has retreated from its previously more liberal line, and hence the Kurdish electorate moved away from the party.
I believe there is truth in all of these, and they underline what I just have said: People are not dumb, and they judge the government according to pretty rational criteria. Whenever we need a "fine-tuning" in politics, in other words, the only thing we need to do is run to the ballot box. Nothing can humble a prime minister more than a decrease in his votes. That was what I observed in Prime Minister Erdoğan on Sunday night, when he promised to "take a lesson" from the election results.
Having said that, let me also note that the AKP’s decline is not a downfall at all. Some exaggerated comments, and perhaps wishful thinking, are presenting that case in the media these days. People are speaking about "the beginning of the end" and even defining the elections as a "Stalingrad" for Erdoğan’s party. That is of course a possibility, and the AKP might indeed go down that road if it does not take lessons and shape up. But the party’s current support is still strong and should be considered as success. Thirty-nine percent of the votes is a remarkable mandate in Turkish politics. Many of the previous governments came to power with much smaller margins. Moreover, whether you like the AKP or not, you have to see that it is still the only party that promises a solid future for Turkey. If the AKP declines too much, three years from now, we will probably find ourselves in yet another era of coalitions, which have always been bad.
Imagine a coalition with the AKP, and, say, the MHP, the Nationalist Movement Party. Many of the EU reforms, which are not going terribly swift anyway, would be stalled because of MHP’s ideological "red lines" on "Turkishness." That’s why most foreign observers think that the best option for Turkey is still the AKP, but its tendencies to become arrogant and domineering must be checked. And that check is exactly what the voters brought to the table last Sunday.
Fakıbaba’s triumph
The case in Şanlıurfa, especially, is very revealing. The city used to have a very successful and popular mayor, Ahmet Eşref Fakıbaba, who had ran on the AKP ticket in 2004. But a little while before the recent elections, other AKP grandees in the city disputed with Fakıbaba. They soon convinced Erdoğan that they didn’t need him, and anybody that the AKP will show as its candidate would win. "Even if we show an jacket (without a person inside!) as a candidate," one of them famously said, "we will win."
Yet look what happened: The abandoned Fakıbaba decided to run as an independent candidate. And he won the elections with an amazing 44 percent of the votes. It was a perfect response of the Şanlıurfa people to the arrogant tone of the AKP, which took them for granted.
That is the biggest lesson of Sunday’s elections: Nobody should take the people for granted, and nobody should assume that they are fools. The real fools are those who insist on making these mistakes.
A Stalingrad?
I think that argument was refuted, for the umpteenth time, in the local elections of last Sunday. The decline in the votes of the incumbent AKP, a remarkable 7 percent, indicated that the electorate is neither foolish nor blind.
The reasons for that decline are hotly debated in the Turkish media these days. Some pundits argue that the secularists’ fear that the country is being Islamized manifested itself in the polls. (While I find that fear often paranoid, I believe the fear itself is a fact that deserves attention.) Others think that the economic crisis, and the unimpressive way the government has handled it, played a big role. The prime minister’s unnecessary war of words with the media, and his chronic problem with anger management, is also shown as a factor. Others point out that the AKP’s rhetoric on the Kurdish question has retreated from its previously more liberal line, and hence the Kurdish electorate moved away from the party.
I believe there is truth in all of these, and they underline what I just have said: People are not dumb, and they judge the government according to pretty rational criteria. Whenever we need a "fine-tuning" in politics, in other words, the only thing we need to do is run to the ballot box. Nothing can humble a prime minister more than a decrease in his votes. That was what I observed in Prime Minister Erdoğan on Sunday night, when he promised to "take a lesson" from the election results.
Having said that, let me also note that the AKP’s decline is not a downfall at all. Some exaggerated comments, and perhaps wishful thinking, are presenting that case in the media these days. People are speaking about "the beginning of the end" and even defining the elections as a "Stalingrad" for Erdoğan’s party. That is of course a possibility, and the AKP might indeed go down that road if it does not take lessons and shape up. But the party’s current support is still strong and should be considered as success. Thirty-nine percent of the votes is a remarkable mandate in Turkish politics. Many of the previous governments came to power with much smaller margins. Moreover, whether you like the AKP or not, you have to see that it is still the only party that promises a solid future for Turkey. If the AKP declines too much, three years from now, we will probably find ourselves in yet another era of coalitions, which have always been bad.
Imagine a coalition with the AKP, and, say, the MHP, the Nationalist Movement Party. Many of the EU reforms, which are not going terribly swift anyway, would be stalled because of MHP’s ideological "red lines" on "Turkishness." That’s why most foreign observers think that the best option for Turkey is still the AKP, but its tendencies to become arrogant and domineering must be checked. And that check is exactly what the voters brought to the table last Sunday.
Fakıbaba’s triumph
The case in Şanlıurfa, especially, is very revealing. The city used to have a very successful and popular mayor, Ahmet Eşref Fakıbaba, who had ran on the AKP ticket in 2004. But a little while before the recent elections, other AKP grandees in the city disputed with Fakıbaba. They soon convinced Erdoğan that they didn’t need him, and anybody that the AKP will show as its candidate would win. "Even if we show an jacket (without a person inside!) as a candidate," one of them famously said, "we will win."
Yet look what happened: The abandoned Fakıbaba decided to run as an independent candidate. And he won the elections with an amazing 44 percent of the votes. It was a perfect response of the Şanlıurfa people to the arrogant tone of the AKP, which took them for granted.
That is the biggest lesson of Sunday’s elections: Nobody should take the people for granted, and nobody should assume that they are fools. The real fools are those who insist on making these mistakes.
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