Neither Turkey nor Israel can give up on each other

Some say that ceasing relations with Israel will cost Turkey dearly. Some take it from Israel’s point of view and say Israel will suffer big losses.

Nobody behaves realistically.

The truth is that Turkey and Israel will not spoil their relationship. Neither Israel nor Turkey could run the risk of such an adventure.

Turkey is the most important guarantee for Israel. From the stand point of Israel, which is surrounded by the Arabs and lives in fear of a bombs or suicide attack, Turkey’s belief in Israel’s right to live and defending it is very vital. If Turkey, a giant in the region with 70 million inhabitants, turns its back then Israel’s insecurity would increase quite a bit. There is a reason that today Turkey is the country most visited by Israeli tourists (chartered or nonscheduled flights, up to 15 flights per day) after Germany. Trades between Turkey and Israel amounts to $4 billion, defense industry projects have reached $2 billion, and cooperation between the two militaries has come to an incredible point.

Israel cannot give up on Turkey.

Israel, too, is a country Turkey cannot give up on. A Turkey approaching Israel in a hostile way means a Turkey turning also its back on Washington and viewing the United States in a hostile way. No doubt about that. For the United States would not let Israel be influenced by anybody else. If need be, it would discard Turkey or its leaders, even though extremely important from a strategic point of view, but would not let Turkey treat Israel as an enemy. A Turkey that Washington turns its back on would loose its international credibility. Its extremely fragile economy would not survive. To step into such a situation would also mean to bid farewell to the European Union project. In a Turkey that approaches Israel in a hostile way, the Kurdish issue would start to be carried to different points. Beside the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, obtaining a great new opportunity, it would be very easy to establish an Independent Kurdish State in northern Iraq. Then Turkey would fit into the Iran-Russia-Syria triangle, as some circles most desire.

I could lengthen the list of how we could harm each other by basing relations on boorishness and miscalculations.

By the way, don’t think that our Arab brothers and Muslims around the world will surround us. A Turkey hostile to Israel and walking arm in arm with Hamas and Hezbollah, will not receive the expected support, foremost from Egypt, neither Saudi Arabia nor the Gulf countries. Calculations in the Middle East are so delicate that minds in Ankara would not understand them. Let’s not forget that what makes Turkey an interesting country during its efforts to join the EU is that it keeps relations with the United States tight. Otherwise we would not be any different from any other marginal Arab or Muslim country.

I believe that this Davos crisis will bring some advantages:

w Facts among the words spoken by Erdoğan will attract attention. Israel might be sat at a peace table and accept Hamas as an addressee, instead of ignoring them.

w Israel might become aware of things changing, after hearing from its best friend maybe in a shock treatment, how much reaction it received from the international public for its action in Gaza.

w The Turkish and Israeli public will realize how much they depend on each other and will be able to behave in a more cautious way from now on.

Prime Minister Erdoğan’s future steps will be examined under a magnifying glass.

Turkey will have to watch its relations with the United States and Israel much more carefully from now on. Also acceleration of reforms and negotiations with the European Union will be of increased importance.

If these steps are taken, balance will be brought to suspicion regarding Erdoğan Islamicizing Turkish foreign policies, changing Turkey’s priorities and estranging from the secularist-democratic system that emphasizes Western values. Otherwise this country will face chaotic days.