I am writing this article knowing that it will create reaction among Erdoğan’s supporters. The easy thing was just to applaud the prime minister and praise his heroism. I just couldn’t do it, for I know that the steps the prime minister’s will take from now on will affect our daily lives. If he takes the wrong steps, this country might become complicated and society poor. Let me tell you why É
The prime minister’s spat at Davos has maybe set the streets in Turkey and the Arab world in motion and put Erdoğan’s pictures in many hands but let’s not forget that the Middle East has a short term memory, more than any place else. The ground is very slippery. People who are enemies today are best buddies the next day. Don’t be surprised if you see Israel and Hamas sitting at a table and smoking the peace pipe. Then those who play Nasserism will be let down. Even if they regret it after they lose there won’t be anything left to do. Those who cause revolt in the Middle East in the name of an efficient leadership will lose everything at hand. Please read the rest of the article with these facts in the back of your mind.
If the prime minister’s words in Davos were meant to be a message, and if there is no other politics or plan underlying this attitude, then we might say that the message was delivered. The Israeli government’s attention was attracted and it was very clearly stated at the ultimate level to the Israeli public and government how wrong the general attitude was, and that Hamas could not be left out, that they would not achieve anything by killing innocent people of Palestine. There has never been a better-delivered message.
Besides, if you pay attention, there is nothing new about Erdoğan’s words. "You know well how to kill," is an old saying. Those are slogans used in the 1970s and 1980s. These words have been spoken many times by others before. They have not created much effect. In general, Israelis are used to such harsh words.
They don’t make much of it. This time, when the same words came out of Erdoğan’s mouth, things changed. It caused an important echo in the Israeli public sphere and an earthquake among Israeli politicians. They could not tolerate these words because they were spoken by a Turkish prime minister.
Turkey’s importance in the eye of Israel has been revealed. The reason for taking it lying down and keeping its reactions within certain boundaries, arises from the importance which Israel attaches to Turkey. To lose Turkey would be a big shock for Israel. The prime minister is playing just this card. He says that Israel, in order not to lose Turkey, has to review its attitude. It’s a game full of risk.
We should not forget that a disarray of relations will cost Israel dearly and hurt Turkey just as much. The prime minister’s spat in Davos, has the Middle East in an uproar and is viewed as a new flag, just like the legendary leader Nasser from the 1950s. And this is the greatest danger of all. Taking the bait means to step into the biggest trap.
As you will remember, Nasser stirred up Arab nationalism and took millions from Iraq to Syria, Jordan to Saudi Arabia onto the streets against Israel. As in 1967 he prohibited the passage of Israeli ships through the Gulf of Aqaba a six-day-war broke out and the Arabs received their biggest defeat yet. Nasser’s political life came to an end. For Nasser started a movement which did not correspond to his real strength. He roused people in uproar for the sake of populism.
Politicians sometimes exaggerate their strength. They can’t see the truth. They think that they can change balances, take brave steps and break accustomed politics. But they forget that in order to do these they would have to carefully read the cards in hand and behave realistically. They don’t take into account that getting carried away by the magic of the street and brisk speeches won’t take them anywhere.
Let’s remember how after Menderes’s wink at Moscow he fell in spectacular fashion. Let’s not forget how İnönü fell shortly after his reaction to President Johnson’s letter during the 1964 Cyprus crisis expressed in his speech "A new world would be established and Turkey would find its place therein."
Let’s keep in mind how Ecevit’s statement during the U.S. embargo in 1978, saying, "I’ll cross over to the other side of the wall," received criticism later on during the Washington NATO summit form the German prime minister stating:
"Dear prime minister you overestimate the cards in your hand," and caused Ecevit to lose power shortly thereafter. After all these experiments I would like to say my final words:
w If the prime minister’s real intention is to create a new world, crossover to the other side of the wall then God speed him. But let’s not forget while doing this he will cause great harm to him and this country.
w If the prime minister’s real intention is to warn the Israeli government then it’s time to calm down. The message was delivered. From now on the broken pieces need to be put back together. As much as we protect Hamas, it’s time we force them to abandon terror.
Erdoğan should not forget that he is the prime minister of Turkey and his primary duty is to provide a happy existence and rich economy for the Turkish people.