Erdoğan could diffuse doubts via the EU

A new gas pipe line running through Turkey that feeds Europe would decrease the addiction to Russian gas. Also a gas-supply guarantee from Turkey, which is conducting membership negotiations with the EU, would provide an invaluable comfort to Europe.

The Nabucco project:

Turkey’s star suddenly shines
Beside all this Ankara attracted attention with its role in the Palestinian war, the recent Lebanon crisis and the conflict between Russia and Georgia. This has paved the way for realizing that in case Turkey leaves aside its former immobility and acts in unison with Europe it will provide important gains for the EU.

Things work this way. No matter how much you say or write it you’ll never convince them sufficiently. But there comes such a moment and such an event passes that people all of a sudden appreciate your value. If Russia had not started this crisis by trying to cash in on debt and getting tough on the Ukraine and keep the Ukraine under its influence, then with great possibility the Nabucco project would not have been discussed the way it is now. Options other than Turkey would have been considered and the value of Turkey’s position would not have been realized in a concrete way.

We have two choices
Let’s take a look at what will happen in the future. The prime minister holds his strongest joker in hand for just this purpose. I know how important Egemen Bağış is for Erdoğan. He trusts him and entrusts him with top secret jobs. By entrusting Bağış with this duty it is understood that he does not want to waste time. If his intention was to waste time he would have continued with Babacan and no one could say a word.

The acceleration of negotiations does not solely depend on steps Turkey will take. Turkey and Europe need to take steps together and simultaneously in order to provide improvement. If Turkey remains in its corner and waits hoping for "them to show good intention and encouragement" it won’t be any good. Alike, if the EU makes a face, waits for Ankara to take action, does not change its critical attitude, and Sarkozy goes back to his "Turkey is not Europe, why are we negotiating with them" attitude, we won’t get far. Action together is required. Egemen Bağış needs to play this role in act I scene I. He needs to convince both sides and provide coordination. Otherwise we would spend time to no result.

My expectation is that after local elections at the end of March, negotiations with the EU will accelerate. The most obvious sign for this will be the presentation of three or four topics instead of two for negotiations in the period to come.

If after local elections disinterest continues, if EU negotiations go at a slow pace and both sides take guard, I will completely surrender. I will believe that Erdoğan, as some already say, has fooled us and only entered relations with EU to show off and to make believe. To tell the truth, it is much easier to open a new page with the EU than procrastinate. Ignoring the EU would cost dearly especially for a party like the Justice and Development Party, or the AKP, which is under examination and whose criminal record increases. Beside it would not be very wise politics. But it would strengthen the party’s power to showing more effort and for example change the Constitution as to suit the EU membership. The party would in an international arena regain its former prestige. The only way for the AKP to diffuse doubts is to accelerate EU reforms, especially in recent times with the spread in Turkey and internationally of suspicion regarding the Islamization of Turkish foreign politics by the AKP.