Mehmet Ali Birand - English

Baghdad - To tell the truth President Gül’s visit to Baghdad could have been a one-day trip. He arrived in the capital of Iraq on Monday and completed almost all of his meetings by that evening. But the delegation stayed one more day. I asked one authority for external affairs, "Why did we stay two days?" "To make the Iraqis happy," he replied. Everyone would come in the morning and return hastily the same day because of security concerns.

The Turkish delegation prolonged its stay to get the message across, "We trust you. We are here to support this country’s stability and territorial integrity." The overnight stay and Gül taking his wife on this trip were identified as a sign of bringing relations back to normal.

Important agreements have been signed and important meetings held but everything was based on the PKK. The Iraqi central government and the Kurdish regional administration have responded in a friendly way to Turkey’s gesture. There was a series of developments in which mutual taboos were overcome. In respect to Turkey, Gül broke a taboo.

In a press conference with the Iraqi President Talabani he pronounced the word Kurdistan for the first time. Turkey, be it in announcements by formal authority or correspondence it used to say "Administration in northern Iraq." That was the official expression. Whereas in the Iraqi Constitution the official name for the northern administration is "Kurdish Regional Administration." But we insisted on not accepting that Kurds in the north are leading this region. We buried our heads in the sand and put ourselves in a ridiculous position.

President Gül did the right thing in the press conference. He pronounced what was written in the Iraqi Constitution and said "Kurdistan Regional Administration." He broke a new taboo. Of course, this approach made everybody happy. Faces smiled.

Baghdad- The visit of the president of the Republic of Turkey is being perceived by the Iraqis as very important. The plan for the withdrawal of the Americans has been put into effect, new elections have taken place and the new administration has begun its work. This time Gül is visiting the Iraq of the Iraqi people and not the American version. Every authority you talk to says; "We have our country back. We are the owners from now on not the Americans." A totally different atmosphere is present in the capital of the country.

Even President Talabani says; "Even to tour around in this country as the president I need to get permission from the American commander. I could not make visits outside the country if the commander did not approve of it."In this regard, the visit by Gül is very important to the Iraqis. We are not that much aware of it but the perception of Turkey in this country is very healthy. The refusal of the bill before the invasion and the attitude afterwards has pleased the Iraqis very much. There will be a series of precautions taken not only politically but also economically. There is effort spent on forming new and special mechanisms to sell the newly found natural gas reserves to Europe via Turkey and to pave the way for Turkish contractors to build up the country.

Will Barzani be able to come for Gül?

I suggested that Gül, during his visit, make a gesture and land in Arbil, the capital of the northern Iraq Kurdish administration, even if it was only for a few hours. I said that this would be an extremely important gesture to show that Turkey wants to make peace in this way. It didn’t work this time.

I asked why. President Gül answered on our way to Baghdad:

"To tell the truth, this visit was supposed to be longer. Kirkuk, Najaf, Basra, Mosul and Arbil were to be included. But because of security reasons the Iraqis and Americans said they would not be able to organize such a broad visit. We are content with only Baghdad. We will make a broader visit in the future," he said.

It was expected that Barzani would come to Baghdad to see Gül. Barzani with great possibility won’t come to Baghdad. But the reason is not that he does not want to meet with Abullah Gül. Barzani has daggers drawn with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. And Abdullah Gül on his way to Baghdad did not insist on this matter. He understated, "We’ll meet when the time comes."

President Gül makes his first formal Turkish presidential visit to Baghdad, the first in 33 years. The last one was in 1976 by President Korutürk. Gül said; "With this visit we openly show that Turkey gives the greatest support to Iraq. It is a sign for us supporting Iraq’s territorial integrity and stability with its neighbors." President Gül clearly stated that the hidden side of this visit is the Kurdish issue. In his responses to questions from journalists he stated the following important politics:

"Just as much as we support Iraq’s territorial integrity authorities of the northern Iraq Kurdish administration need to support us in Turkish territory against the PKK terror. This terror has to stop now. Everybody needs to do some accounting and act accordingly. We perceive Kurds in the north as our relatives and siblings. But at the same time the organization’s camps are up in the North. I mean they too have certain responsibilities. Everybody should do their own accounting and take steps to end this terror. We are entering a new period. Kurds in northern Iraq have clearly seen what it means to win or lose Turkey. They have understood that the PKK terror is a component that creates a rift between us and have started to act. I hope they continue with this attitude."

If I were to summarize Gül’s words, I’d say he wants to get this message across: "We are supporting you in your territorial integrity and expect you to hand over the PKK."

Apparently the most important part of Gül’s visit is to eliminate the PKK.

Back in Baghdad after 7 years

For a long time I have been uneasy about it. In the past and especially before and after the first Gulf war (1991) I used to visit Baghdad quite often. Saddam Hussein was for us journalists a dictator who attracted our attention very much. Especially after I had a chat with him on 32.Gün during the war I had an advantage of knowing him personally and I used to take Iraq’s pulse.

The Iraqi always gave me an impression of a sad society.

Can you imagine only 14 million people who sit on the world’s greatest petroleum reserves and own an incredible natural beauty? This means it is a society that has everything to be happy about. But a dictator who ruined all this enrichment and comfort, who started an 8-year war with Iran, who went to Kuwait and drew the whole world toward him. He ended up being executed and was saved, in my view. But the 14 million people have suffered starvation for generations and were killed. One person has played with the faith of millions.

Baghdad was perceived as the pearl of the region. I believe that the American invasion has harmed this dear country even more than Saddam did. Pandora’s Box has been opened and the spirits are widely spread. But these spirits, contrary to spirits that we know, emerged for revenge and horribly shed blood. We watched it on TV together. Iraq was a blood bath. Al-Qaeda brought its own warriors and carried out its own fight here.

The Shiite, waiting for many years, has gored themselves with a sword thinking the time has come. The Sunni revolted in order to catch one end of the administration they had let slip away. Heads were cut off in front of TV cameras É the number of people killed in suicide bombings exceeded hundreds of thousands É it attacked calling for politics, Islam and jihad.

This bloody revenge has lost its speed nowadays and we have entered a period of dressing wounds. I will inform you about my impressions after I take a tour around the city, of course É but this much I can say I have not found my old Baghdad.

A little while ago I wrote that the brisk atmosphere in the European Union and their perception of Ankara relaxed. This change was especially noticed after the prime minister in February and CHP leader Deniz Baykal afterwords visited Brussels.

Last week we witnessed an example of winds blowing stronger and in favor of Turkey.

In the European Parliament the report on Turkey was discussed and approved.

You might remember former meetings of the European Parliament. They would turn into a blood bath and those having business with Turkey would take their files and head to the parliament to impose on the report their "amendment proposals."

During the sessions everybody would talk and drag Turkey through the mud. People would say that the PKK protects the rights of the Kurdish peopleÉ make decisions to immediately end the invasion in CyprusÉ claim that Armenians have suffered genocide.. Even with this heavy burden Turkey has kept going through the years. And look at the present situation.

Never been a milder report for Turkey in 25 years
We could say, the report for Turkey prepared up by the Dutch parliamentarian Ria Oomen Ruijten is the mildest report published in the past 20 to 25 years. Again it contains subjects we already know. Again it talks about not having banned torture all togetherÉ again it states that freedom of expression is restrictedÉ again it touches on the re-opening of the seminary at HeybeliadaÉ etc. etc. But in addition the report talks about the PKK as a terror organizationÉ it no longer only blames Turkey for the Cyprus issueÉ does not include the word genocideÉ In the past when a draft of the report was drawn up about 200 amendments would be submitted and more precision of the wording would be requested.This time only 16 were submitted and they were mainly amendments that were looking out for Turkey.

Even if this was due to rapporteur Oomen Ruijten’s mastery and watch for balance, the winds blowing in the direction of Turkey must have been more effective. For example German and French leaders Merkel and Sarkozy have not reflected their negative attitude in the report and Paris and Berlin have not made an attempt either.

Usually the European Parliament plays the "bad guy" and the EU Commission the "good guy." But this time, whether it be the commission or speakers of various groups, they have not approached Turkey in a boorish way.

I examined the report very carefully and among the 27 countries I could not find one country that was in favor of a cessation of negotiations or the process.

During parliament works there was only one parliamentarian who spoke in that manner. All others were in favor of a continuation of negotiations. Everybody’s mutual point was to set in motion reforms and accelerate the full membership process. I already mentioned the contributions in Brussels by the prime minister and Baykal. In addition their contributions in recent activity regarding external politics, Palestine, peace negotiations between Syria and Israel, rapprochement between Iran and the United States have increased Ankara’s prestige to an important extent. I can’t help it but touch on another point that stunned me.

To my surprise, the Davos incident, contrary to many commentators including me, has provided an advantage for Turkey abroad.Some say, "It was about time that someone said something to the Israelis out loud." Some say, "Your prime minister put forth what we are reluctant to say." And some say that Erdoğan started to scare his peers with his sudden and unrestrained reactions.

The general impression is that Turkey has gained a personality in the Middle East and the upswing in the region, especially for America and Iran’s preparation for taking up contact and for the withdrawal from Iraq, have prepared an environment in favor of Ankara. That is why in the beginning I chose to write the sentence "Winds are blowing in favor of Turkey."

President Abdullah Gül when talking to journalists recently used a sentence that attracted the attention of many people. "In 2009 pleasing developments will take place regarding the Kurdish issue," he said.

I, too, was curious.

What did the president mean?

The other day a small group of journalists understood what he meant when he was talking to Iraqi President Jalal Talabani.

It is understood that Turkey is preparing to enter a new relationship arrangement with Baghdad and Arbil, meaning it is preparing for a "development" regionally or in relations between the two countries, whichever is necessary. Talabani with his usual cheer and humor has reflected these developments in such a colorful way that it became very apparent what Gül meant by "pleasing developments."

Let’s first start with a road map.

Most important step: Gül’s visit to Baghdad

President Gül will leave for a formal state visit to Baghdad next week, after postponing a previous trip because of discomfort in his ear.

Talabani, while talking about this visit, said: "It is from our point of view very important. Turkey, in this way, will show its support of the new government."

I realized that the man in front of me was not the former Kurdish opposition leader but a wise man talking from his experience accumulated over the years.

"The PKK is still living in the past. It does not completely comprehend that the problem cannot be solved with weapons. Some among the organization do comprehend it but some are still in favor of weapons. Problems are solved with politics now. If the PKK puts down its weapons, it will be able to solve the problems of its people more easily," he said. During our conversation, the Iraqi president drew attention to the period of time in front of us.

At the end of this period, with an extremely close method of economic and political cooperation between Turkey and Iraq, the PKK factor will be reduced to a point of "bearable" and, more importantly, relations between Ankara and Arbil will be put on track.

This is a long process. It requires mutually sensitive politics and brave steps. In this respect Gül’s Baghdad visit is important. It will strengthen relations between Baghdad and Ankara. Thereafter the next giant step will be taken: the Kurd Conference.

The regional administration in northern Iraq will take a never-before-seen step.

It will gather all Kurdish origin parties in a giant conference. At the end of April and during May, all Kurdish parties will come together in Arbil and appeal to the PKK to put down its weapons.

It is not certain who will attend this conference. But this much I can say: Any party that will confirm the appeal to the PKK to put down its weapons is welcome to the conference.

The DTP, even the PKK if it joins, needs to accept this prerequisite in advance.

This counts as a historical step.

As you might guess, it is not easy. For, it is difficult to find a society like the Kurds that is split among itself.

Talabani and the leader of the regional administration in northern Iraq Masoud Barzani need to spend much effort. Once they manage it Ankara needs to make a move and take some steps regarding the Kurdish issue. There has been mention of "pardoning" without explicitly saying "pardoning" and about reforms that would lead to preserving the Kurdish identity.

Talabani is hopeful as always. Even though it is difficult, he believes that the PKK will be excluded. He said, "If the PKK will not obey the ’put down weapon’ declared during this conference, then we will increase pressure." Truly, for the PKK it is time to make a decision. The problem is that this organization is not led by a single headquarter. The most effective one is İmralı but the ones in the mountains are split.

In order to continue the process smoothly there will be visits to Ankara by Barzani and Neçirvan Barzani, prime minister of the regional administration in northern Iraq, after the conference in May. The exact dates are not set yet, but they are important because of their symbolic meaning.

Those are the developments meant by President Gül when he said "pleasing developments will take place in 2009."

Last week my article regarding avoiding military service through payment was on the Internet and I was bombarded with letters. It is obvious how important this issue is and how high the number of those people is who are hurt by this issue. There is no definite number but estimates are that those who have not served their military duty yet in one way or another and are looking for a way out is above 250,000. I don’t know whether or not this figure is correct but it is a sure thing that this number is very high.

The General Staff does not even want to hear about the subject of military service by payment. Past applications have caused such distortions and reactions that nobody wants it to be repeated. Because military service is perceived as a national service they oppose the dismissal of those who, in exchange for money, do not fulfill this duty.

Criticism is very crucial that in case the military service by payment system is put into effect there will be injustice done to soldiers who died for their nation and veterans who fought against terror in the southeastern Anatolia.

Besides, the fact that many who cannot take advantage of this "right" because of their limited income are the majority in this country and it hurts their feelings of equality. If you listen to the General Staff you acknowledge it to be right but this does not solve the problem.

The Republic of Turkey does at times grant pardon for those who owe billions of dollars in taxes. The Republic of Turkey does at times grant pardon for the most famous killers. There is no logic in leaving unsettled the problems of people who have not yet in one way or another served their military duty.

Aren’t we spoiling the life of 250,000 people, if the figure is true? Let me repeat, it is only natural that the General Staff opposes this. The General Staff cannot accept deserters who say, "One day they will pardon us anyway."

This would become such a road that the 250,000 today will be 500,000 tomorrow. That’s why there needs to be an effort to find a formula that takes up every aspect of the matter and examine each direction of it.

Because one day when this figure increases to millions no one will be able overcome the situation.

Once touched upon endless whining will follow

Below I want to mention just a few letters out of the thousand I received. We cannot accuse these people with treason. Maybe there are some that want to escape military service. But we need to consider that for the majority it is a burden.

w I am one of those who desperately await the military service by payment. I live apart from my 3.5-year-old daughter and my wife in Cyprus. I not being able to serve the military brought us to this point. Değer Kumru

w I am 36 years old, have 3 children and work with minimal benefits. Because of this job and personal reasons I had to postpone my military duty. Bahri Altıok

w I, for my part, am waiting for the military service by payment because I do not want to lose my business and put those who work for me into a difficult position. Metin Ercan

w I am 27 years old. After college when I was an intern I had the opportunity to open up my own business. Now I have 10 employees. We are expecting our child. Hasan Oz

w I am 29 years old. I own a business with 85 employees. If I am to serve the military for 5 months and with the crises that we are in at the moment I won’t be able to find anything in its place upon my return. Fatih Erdal

w Many of us have gotten married and have children. Different reasons kept us from joining the military, some pay a loan, some have credit card debts, some fear to lose their jobs, some have sick elders, and some can’t leave their children and wives. Sebat Polat

w I am neither rich nor the child of a rich man. For four years I’ve been working to pay off the debt with my family. When military service by payment passes I will pay the amount with severance pay and vacation pay. Enron The Wreck (nickname)

w I am 33 years old. When my father died all the responsibility of our business fell on my shoulders. I could not join the military because 15 months would have required closing down our business and leave my wife, 3 children and my 60-year-old mother. Emre Akpınar

w I work for 15 years now with 8 employees. Despite the economic crises I am not thinking about laying off employees but on the contrary to improve my business. Unfortunately the military duty poses a big problem and obstacle for me too. Uygar Tandoğan

w I am a 30-year-old employer with 30 employees. Unfortunately I could not get married because of the military duty issue. Who would I entrust with my business if I were to join the military? Savaş Bayru

w In case I would join the military I would lose my job in Germany. My family would be miserable. And if the military service by payment wouldn’t pass I wouldn’t be able to visit my country ever again. Thousands of people are just like me waiting for the military service by payment. Cenk Bayar

Ergenekon, until recently, was a case that confused everybody and its direction was unclear. The prosecutors’ aim was unclear. And because they could not articulate what they wanted to do, the case was pulled in a political direction. According to some parts of society, prosecutors acting on Justice and Development (AKP) orders took civilian opponents into custody in order to scare them off. Those who were taken into custody because they were accused of "causing chaos in the country to overthrow the government by military coup or other means" raised questions. I too was at first among those who were suspicious. I could not see how many of those taken into custody were really acting on behalf of an organization and how many only because they were opponents. Suspicion grew even more as prosecutors did not take seriously the public’s cynical interpretations.

One reason for being suspicious was that there were some people among those taken into custody that we could not deem likely. The other reason was that Ergenekon information was systematically leaked to the pro-AKP press. We got the impression that "probably a planned campaign was being pursued." It was a weird situation.

The first Ergenekon indictment stated that some civilians and retired military personnel were in the process of preparing a coup and puts forth some evidence, but no one talked about the "coup diaries" published in Nokta magazine and believed by the public to be true. It was perceived as if the prosecutors were afraid to touch the military and thus did not want to go further. People thought that they took a few retired military personnel under custody to delude them and close the case. In summary, evidence based neither on content nor on logic nor on allegations was sufficient. As I said before, neither the direction nor the information flow and evidence were credible for some parts of society.

The second indictment

The second indictment changed this course to an important extent. It is hard to make a definite decision because we don’t know the content for sure, but the general course of this case is put on the right track. What paved the way for this development was the inclusion of the "coup diaries" in 2004-2005, which talk about preparations of military interference, allegedly belonging to former Chief of Navy Admiral Özden Örnek. Now the direction and content of this case is different. In public the Ergenekon case has become serious. Of course, one still needs to speak of it with caution. It is still not certain what will be done with these diaries. Despite everything, the perception is spreading that this case is not a show and that it will last as long as it takes. We don’t know what kind of scenery will result from the conclusion of the Ergenekon case, but an important judicial opinion will form in Turkish political life. It will become clear where the line will be drawn between the acceptance of political or civil movements as "opposition" or as "causing chaos and disturbing legal order."

I also signed the solidarity movement conducted by the daily Cumhuriyet after Mustafa Balbay was taken into custody. I received many letters showing reaction. I responded to each letter as follows: "As long as Balbay is proven guilty, he is innocent in my conscience. I don’t know what evidence is on hand against him. Until a verdict is handed down, I will stand shoulder to shoulder with him."

I was curious why military personnel taken into custody did not receive support from the institution that educated them or the hundreds of associations of military origin. My colleague Melih Aşık has drawn attention to the same point. This means the professional associations are either unsure about what is going on or insensitive to it. No matter what anyone says, the Ergenekon dispute publicly spreads the impression that retired military personnel are attempting to disrupt the democratic order/regime, no matter what the truth is. It is not sure where the end is for Ergenekon, which stands for a conspiracy according to some or the punishment of retired military personnel for illegal activity according to others. The General Staff disappoints some of us by only confining itself to watching the developments. It does not go beyond some symbolic visits and announcements.

In my opinion, it does the right thing. A legal period has started. Should the General Staff say: "You can take civilians under custody but not military personnel. Let’s take a look at your evidence. If we believe they are guilty, we will allow you to take them into custody"? As you see, a new period has started in the relationship between civilians and the military.

For as long as I can remember there is word going around of plans to eliminate the PKK. Some have its source in Europe, some in the United States or some originate from the Kurds themselves. And these plans got lost after circulating in the hallway of the respective capital cities. Again there is word about an elimination plan. And this time it is serious. Recently important developments have taken place. Relations with Barzani have been improved. Even the National Security Council, or MGK, has suggested an investment in northern Iraq and increase of trade therein. Afterward, the administration has taken important steps in TRT-6 and the Kurdish issue. The start has been given for Kurdish departments at universities. By the way, the PKK ceased its terror action all of a sudden Ğ you might think that winter has an effect on this Ğ and after Clinton’s visit to Ankara, as President Gül was leaving for Tehran he attracted much attention when he said that "good things" will happen this year regarding the Kurdish issue and placed the "plan for elimination of the PKK" back on the agenda after many years of talk.

First Yasemin Çongar from the daily Taraf then Mehmet Faraç from the daily Cumhuriyet wrote about it.

According to them, the Iraqi Autonomous Kurdish Administration will meet for a Kurdish conference. During this conference a manifesto will be prepared regarding the "disarmament of Kurds" and signed by parties in agreement. In the meantime, Turkey will take some steps as well. It will announce an act of grace and allow some PKK leaders to leave for some European countries. In exchange, PKK members will put down their weapons.

Maybe you’ll remember, some time ago the United States and some European countries were talking about similar plans. For example, Henri Barkey was talking about a plan in this manner. Even which PKK leader was going to leave for which country was known. But this was not been put into action.

Now there is a similar endeavor on its way.

If we were to tell the truth, the new plan is more likely to be put in action compared to the old plan. But this time roles are different. Some part of the Kurds and Turkey are more comfortable with this solution. But there are still some people opposing it, of course.

Let’s start with Turkey’s front É

In Ankara it is clearly accepted that it is difficult to get rid of the PKK terror by using arms. It is known that the PKK will not get far with its terror. Especially the military states that, according to statistics on hand, PKK operations are no good for anything else but destroying the environment, killing people, and in other words creating tension. They are stating that the PKK has lost its initiative compared to the 1995 period. Despite this, Ankara is looking for a solution. For, blood is being shed and the dissatisfaction of people in the region needs to be eliminated in some way or another. Ways are being sought for banning terror in the Southeast and turning the region into a place "where people can live together in peace." But the government is not ready to make huge concessions just to find a way.

In summary, politicians and the military are more willing compared to the past. Also, the public is more willing compared to the past.

PKK knows it won’t get far with weapons

From Turkey’s point of view the most annoying part is "what will these steps be?" If in the Constitution it is persisted on changes in the lines of the DTP or on formulations having a trace of federation in them, we would be spending our time in vain. No political administration would or could take such a step.

Of course, it is also important what the PKK will do. What is the assurance for giving up arms? Who would do what if the PKK erases its name and continues with its terror under a different name?

As you see, the Kurdish front is much more important É

The PKK is aware of plans to eliminate it.

What’s more important is that the PKK is being progressively forced into a corner. You’ll notice as soon as you follow their announcements or listen to conversations over transmitters or look at their internal struggle. The organization knows that it won’t get anywhere with arms. From what they know they feel this reality more closely with each passing day. Shedding blood makes them feel better temporarily, but that is about it. They cannot go beyond this.

They have no success before the military. There is no way. Nobody will obtain anything by killing people remotely. They have not gained a political concession or advantage.

If we were to look at past deeds and obtained results, then the weakness of today’s situation becomes apparent.

The only thing they were successful in is that they have not yet been discharged by weapons. And this thanks to Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq. Whereas you see the situation there is not the best either. Signals for improvement in the relationship between Barzani and Turkey are quite annoying for the PKK. This situation will spread. The PKK is aware that one day it won’t be able to walk around as it pleases. As a matter of fact, Duran Kalkan, among the leaders of the PKK, complains about an isolation of the PKK in northern Iraq.

If we look from this angle, it is quite normal most PKK leaders at least want to come to an agreement with Turkey, put down their weapons and disband the organization. Their sole aim is to find an opportunity to save themselves and take shelter in another country.

But let’s not forget, that another group within the PKK under these circumstances will change names and continue its path. They will not surrender and try to further feed on terror.

I don’t think they will be successful. An agreement between Ankara, Arbil and Washington will break off the PKK and cause other groups formed in place of the PKK to stay weak. They won’t be very effective. As you see, the realization of this agreement, which is said to eliminate the PKK, looks easy and difficult. Attractive and scary. I will be happy if this agreement comes into effect. But I can’t say that my hopes are high.

Extremely important processes have started with the visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Ankara. Important steps were taken in matters mentioned below. It will take time to obtain results but we can easily say that a great period of time has started in which "give and take" or "bargaining" will take place. Within time new developments will be seen and for sure new "commodities" will be added to the transaction process but I will share with you what I have observed so far. Armenia: The Obama administration promised Armenians during his election period to support genocide allegations. Now he is expecting a gesture from Ankara in order to back out of his commitments. If for example the border would be opened up Erivan would be pleased and the postponement of the genocide issue would not lead to a loss in prestige for Obama.

The problem here is whether or not Turkey will take this step. This will be the point where the transaction process will encounter a knot.

Afghanistan: The United States is caught in the Afghanistan issue. The U.S. requests military support from its NATO allies. And regarding this issue Turkey is the most comfortable country. The governments of Germany and Netherlands sending military support pave the way for reactions in public whereas cross border duties of the brave Turkish soldier are a source of national pride. This is Turkey’s most important joker card to be played in almost every hand.

Cyprus: In this matter Turkey is again constricted. As long as the Greek Cypriots do not lift embargos applied toward the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, or KKTC, Turkey will not open its ports to Greek Cypriot ships. And as long as ports are closed membership negotiations between Turkey and the EU do not progress. For this is the reason for eight subjects to be temporarily put on hold. If Washington manages to convince the Greek Cypriots to lift the embargo then the way will be paved for negotiations and the probability for a solution to the Cyprus issue will increase.

Energy: The natural gas pipeline called Nabucco carries energy to Europe via Turkey and is an extremely important alternative to Russian gas. The realization of this project will provide Turkey with an important income source, diversification of its own energy resources and thus strengthen Turkey in the eyes of the EU. But the realization of this project in the lines of Turkey depends on support by the United States. If Washington approves of it Ankara’s expectations will be greatly met. This is one more bargaining card of the United States.

MIddle East - Iran: Most of the cards in this issue are held by the United States. If it pleases, it creates space for Turkey or else leaves Turkey outside the game. Turkey’s cards regarding Palestine and Iran are not very strong. But good relations with Hamas give one advantage and another comes from being the only country in the region on good terms with Iran.

But both roles do not matter much other than "easing negotiations." Turkey’s real card, which it never used but could create adverse effects, is negative politics. Balance in the region would be disturbed if it tries to follow politics in the lines of opposing Israel and supporting Tehran. This kind of attitude would of course harm the country itself. Nevertheless, this card should receive attention in conducting general bargaining.

Iraq: One of Turkey’s middle sized cards in the long run is contributing to Iraq’s stability and supporting Baghdad. In the short run it is granting permission to the U.S. military, which is due to leave the region in 2010, to use ground, air and sea routes in Turkey. Ankara signaled very positively regarding this matter. Babacan gave the green light and showed that it will play its card in favor of Washington.

Northern Iraq and the PKK: Turkey’s biggest concern is the PKK. The most important card held by the United States is its strength to get the PKK to do anything through northern Iraq.

Washington wants Ankara to be on good terms with Barzani and not push him around, to take some steps toward the Kurdish issue in the country and toward the PKK. Bargaining revolves around these "steps." If Ankara takes these steps then Washington will be able to put its "plan to elimination the PKK" into effect. There is no more space left today. But I’ll take up this subject in more detail tomorrow.