Mehmet Ali Birand - English

The General Staff is extremely hopeful and expectant regarding efforts against PKK terror. The public is not greatly aware of it but the General Staff believes that the PKK is under huge international pressure and that a break up process has started. When carefully examining Gen. Başbuğ’s words in his latest speech you’ll understand expectations and preparations of the General Staff in this issue. Başbuğ’s picture based on special evaluation and information, which I obtained from the General Staff milieu, shows that the Turkish Armed Forces, or TSK, has by all means taken action against the terror organization and has even started to change its attitude against matters it used to show reaction to, like, foremost the northern Iraq Kurdish Regional Administration issue.

You’ll remember when the AKP government in 2007-2008 wanted better relations with the northern Iraqi administration and especially with Barzani, and in the struggle against the PKK it wanted to draw Arbil on its side but the TSK used to oppose this. Former Chief of General Staff Büyükanıt would say: "Whoever wants to talk to them can do so, we won’t get in touch." And after Başbuğ took over the office of the Chief of General Staff, this attitude continued for some time. The Barzani administration used to complain that despite a green light from the government and close encounters with foreign affairs and MİT, the TSK won’t open the blinds and say: "The military holds the key but it denies us."

Başbuğ softened the Barzani boycott recently and finally "lifted the boycott on contacts and meetings." Either now or sometime soon a representative of the General Staff will start the process of meeting Barzani’s team. This is an important step for the TSK. For now this process is limited to lower levels and according to incoming signals from them the contact will continue on an upper protocol level.

So why are we experiencing this change?

To tell the truth, everybody following developments carefully will realize that the PKK is increasingly experiencing international pressure. The PKK is expected to put down its weapons, retreat from attacks and voice its message through political channels in a peaceful manner. The same voices are raised in all capital cities:

w The northern Iraqi administration, where the PKK continues its existence, wants this. In order to develop relations with Turkey it wants the PKK factor to fade from the scene.

w Baghdad has had enough and it wants the organization to stop being a problem between Turkey and itself.

w The United States, before withdrawing from Iraq, forces the PKK to put down its weapons in order to put back on track relation between Turkey and Iraq, and to ensure stability in the region.

The General Staff expects these important developments to pose an opportunity to make something happen by the end of the year. That’s why it is starting the meeting process with the Barzani administration. On one side it takes action to make the PKK come down from the mountains, on the other side it tries to convince the U.S. to come up with a mutual action plan.

Don’t call it ’Pardon’ but retreat from Qandil

When asking the General Staff: "is there a general pardon for the PKK?" we receive an automated response, "No, there can be no mention of pardon." We know that it won’t be called "pardon" but there will be some formulas to make it easier for the PKK to retreat from the mountains because the chief of general staff himself wants, for example, flexibility in the application of the existing law. He is nearly at a point of starting a campaign.

The law, applied for four years, says: "Those who have not used a weapon against security forces might be pardoned." But it is written in such a way that prosecutors and judges, afraid of being accused as "traitors" apply this law very carefully. They are afraid to incur the wrath of the military, media and nationalist parties.

According to numbers by Başbuğ, out of some 1,000 applicants there have been 660 people pardoned within the last four years. A very small number. Under these circumstances the PKK youngsters are afraid to apply. If he is denied he will end up in jail instead of going home. How can you tell who pulled the gun first? If those who have not killed anyone and have no blood on their hands knew that they would be pardoned, Qandil would be deserted to an important extent.

The General Staff, in order not to miss out on this opportunity, encourages prosecutors and judges to be flexible. On the other hand it asks the Barzani administration to take on a more brisk attitude in the PKK issue.

Barzani, too, is in a difficult position. They in return are waiting for a message from Ankara saying, "Turkey should do something to make it easier for us. We cannot force the PKK from Qandil by ourselves." As you see a meal is cooking up. And the PKK, knowing this, is trying to obtain something from Ankara. Something like a release of their leaders, Öcalan being set free, privileges for Kurds during Constitutional amendments. Turkish society becomes even more pessimistic with each new martyr but those closely involved in these matters are not that much pessimistic. On the contrary, they are exited to be benefiting from each new opportunity.

Some media outlets interpreted Chief of General Staff Gen. Başbuğ’s speech-form while talking to me in the press conference as "coming down on me." I was surprised about it. To tell the truth, I did not take his speech personally or as coming down on me. Besides, I am a person who has never been scolded by anyone, who doesn’t like being scolded Ğ doesn’t matter by whom Ğ and who wouldn’t remain in a place where he gets scolded.

Yesterday I was again invited to the General Staff to talk about something else. Gen. Başbuğ was surprised when he read my article. He said, "That’s not the case. If you took it that way, I’ll be sad." And I replied, "It was just a normal discussion." And that’s my real opinionÉ Besides I still insist on what I said regarding "weapons bursting out of the soil." Even if Gen. Başbuğ does not accept it, the perception in the public is like that. "Burst out" is a metaphor, and we as journalists are allowed to use metaphors.

The chief of staff did not like me using this, but it is correct. Recently, no matter where you dig everywhere you’ll find weapons and ammunition.

I accept that this is an extremely complicated issue. One part of the findings does not belong to the military. It’s a range of illicit ties. But whether all are like that or whether we are just talking about the ones found in Poyrazköy, I don’t know for sure.

When we asked about the whereabouts of the other weapons and whom they belonged to, we were told, "That’s none of our business; prosecutors and the court should find out." It is obvious that there is some confusion. And Başbuğ, knowing that, said he increased supervision.

If I were to summarize, the issue of weapons wandering around is way too important to leave it to the police or prosecutors.

The point that drew my attention the most was the reply I received to my question regarding Başbuğ’s democracy and Adm. Özden Örnek’s diaries.

When talking about his loyalty to democracy, he said, in a very clear and loud voice, that they will not allow those who plan to make a coup or think differently regarding loyalty to democracy to take shelter within the TSK.

It was striking.

But I was amazed at the fact that all these years nobody conducted an investigation regarding the Özden Örnek diaries. It is not necessary to share this investigation with the public. While such developments take place in such a big institution, one keeps wondering why the highest-ranking authority, the General Staff, does not conduct a secret investigation?

Başbuğ contented himself with quoting former Chief of General Staff Gen. Büyükanıt’s words. He said, "In addition we have no document in hand regarding a coup preparation." He did not take any further step despite telling him that the diaries have been published in the Nokta magazine and even this much is notification of proof.

Interestingly, he did not shut the door completely and said something along the lines of "if the court wants we could start an investigation." As you see, the General Staff is not yet brave enough to take a step in the diaries issue. These diaries will come around sooner or later.

It does not suffice to say, "We are loyal to democracy. " The TSK for the first time should examine itself and be transparent if something like this has ever happened. As long as the diary issue does not fall into place these discussions won’t end.

One other subject Gen. Başbuğ made very clear was the issue of military service by payment. The quoted numbers and the reasons behind his refusal of the system were very convincing. Compared to the demand of soldiers the number of applicants decreased and only 66 percent was fulfilled last year. He said this percentage would be 60 in 2011. He also put forth a morale justification. He said, "While people die in the struggle with terror, we cannot justify in public the selling of a soldier’s duty for money."

Correct.

But then there are those who are victims without paying any value. I was going to ask whether there is such a project for them as well, but I did not have the guts. I was afraid to be put in a position of defending deserters at the time when nine young men were martyred.

I experienced social pressure.

’Not everyone expects something from us’
Başbuğ made another interesting warning regarding a habit of the media. He said, "You are writing that everybody coming to Turkey wants something or requests concessions. No, my friends, there is no such thing. Turkey is a large country, and those visiting us come to ask our opinion."

This was a very true finding. We really have the ill habit of believing that every foreigner comes to take something or requests concessions from us.

While, for example, giving details about his meetings with the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and Obama’s security adviser, Başbuğ put forth that the dialogue between Ankara and Washington is progressing well.

The chief of general staff answered some of the expected questions of the media. Let’s see whether he will next time come before us with old new attitudes. We’ll see.

The PKK is increasingly having a hard time. And as they are having a hard time they increase attacks. This situation was very clearly understood during Gül’s latest visit to Baghdad. The General Staff yesterday in the press conference said: "Turkey caught an opportunity to eliminate the PKK. We should not miss it." The organization’s situation is extremely difficult. Under these circumstances, it hits out randomly. Yesterday’s Lice event was a typical example.

Despite the nine martyrs, the chief of general staff was extremely determined.

He exercised pressure from all sides. Washington is leading the external orchestra. And right next to it is the European Union. The underlying message is very clear: Abandon the terror-based struggle with weapons and try to fulfill the expectations of the Kurdish people in political rallies. As for the PKK, the organization does not quite know what to do. Minds are confused. Especially on the Iraqi front, conditions are worsening with each passing day.

For example, the organization is not welcome in Baghdad.

In the capital city Turkey’s prestige is stronger. For Baghdad the PKK "can be used if need be" but when it bothers Ankara it can be benefited from. Baghdad sympathizing with the PKK is inversely related to good relations with Turkey.

"They will not be able to obtain strength from our bureaucracy or security forces," says an Iraqi diplomat. "Generally we do not sympathize with the Kurds.

For, we know that they are waiting for the day to come when they will snatch part of this country and announce their independence." As a matter of fact, the winds do not in blow in favor of the PKK.

And Gül’s visit to Baghdad polished the Turkish image even further.

Winds blowing from the northern Iraqi administration are also against the PKK. To tell the truth, Barzani is caught between the PKK and Turkey. On one side, they are trying to fix relations with Turkey and pave the way in respect to their economy. But on the other side they don’t want to destroy the PKK brutally.

Whatever may come, they too are of Kurdish descent. They perceive the PKK as siblings. Even if they wanted to wipe out the PKK they know very well that they won’t get into a blood bath.

"If Barzani was to put the PKK on one scale of the balance and Turkey on the other, then Ankara would outweigh them," says an Iraqi diplomat.

He drew attention to the despair of the northern Iraqi Kurds and said, "That’s why Turkey needs to take some steps regarding the Kurdish issue, and we are begging to pardon the PKK in one way or another so this issue can easily be solved."

Chief of General Staff Başbuğ in the press conference yesterday repeated the importance of the northern Iraqi administration’s attitude, saying, "We must obtain a result by the end of this year."

This general course is not only valid for Iraq. Kurdish societies in Europe almost all show similar reactions. We notice that even if they are not prepared to sacrifice the PKK the old image is lost. They believe now that the PKK’s struggle with weapons and terror practices won’t lead the Kurdish issue anywhere and that a political struggle should be the preliminary plan.

Don’t be fooled, the PKK also knows that a struggle with weapons is out and won’t lead anywhere but the organization is split in two. Bayık is in favor of a struggle with weapons. Karayılan is in favor of a political solution. If you are curious about who will make the decision, here it comes: İMRALI:

These are very important in the period ahead of us. It seems that Turkey’s attitude as well as the attitude in Kurdish society in respect to this matter will undergo important changes. You might guess what will happen in the future if we put all the following together:

w The PKK ceasing fire.

w No negative events taking place during Nevruz celebrations.

w The start of a campaign regarding the dismissal of Öcalan.

w The surfacing of a political struggle instead of a struggle with weapons on the agenda.

w A different and more understanding attitude of Ankara toward the Kurdish issue and Northern Iraqi Kurdistan.

This time there was a different Başbuğ
Two weeks ago at the academy we encountered a chief of staff teaching us about strategy. He talked about general attitudes and carried Turkey’s issues in a different dimension. He talked about the organization’s view of Turkey and the region. It seemed as if an ideologist were talking about how the Turkish Armed Forces, viewed the country’s problems.

In yesterday’s press conference we saw a chief of staff who was answering questions regarding daily issues. He answered each question and even brought up issues as if they were asked about.

To tell the truth the majority of questions were the type that would be answered in weekly press conferences but it’s our habit to only believe what No. 1 says and make it a headline.

Başbuğ was very comfortable. He answered all questions in a convincing way from his perspective. But these questions needed more explanation. But time was tight, and therefore many issues were left pending. He openly expressed his discomfort about the way the Ergenekon case is being conducted.

But we could not further research unanswered questions regarding the weapons’ issue. Tomorrow I will take up this press conference in a more detailed way.

Ergenekon is one of the most important cases in the history of the Turkish judiciary. For the first time since the establishment of the Republic, we have encountered a trial regarding those who are planning or paving the way for a coup. Up until now coups were justified endeavors that were directed toward the benefit of the country or the survival of democracy. And the process was as follows:

The civilians would provoke a coup, call the military to duty and applaud after the coup was achieved. And right after that, a "military back to quarters" campaign would start. Each coup would further harm the democratic process that it was supposed to save and it would end with a devastation of the image of political authorities and the Turkish Armed Forces. Then the military would retreat back to their quarters, but new coups would hang over political authorities like the sword of Damocles. And provocateurs who are at odds with the administration would blackmail the administration with the thread, "A new coup might follow."

For the first time, those who are trying to disturb the democratic process are called to account. But it is a pity that we, as always, have not been able to do this properly. Things have gotten so chaotic that everybody makes up his very own Ergenekon. Everyone interprets Ergenekon differently. What’s even worse is that this case has branched out so much that it is not certain how it will end. Chances are that it will persist for years and nobody will remain in custody. Either innocent people will be called to account together with the guilty ones or the guilty ones will escape profiting from the existing chaos.

So, who is responsible for today’s situation?

Where does this confusion come from?

Who is responsible for developments that even drove Haşim Kılıç, the chairman of the Constitutional Court, out of his mind?

To tell the truth, there is not just one person responsible. According to me, the foremost responsibility lies on the shoulders of the interrogation and judiciary mechanisms. There is nothing to say about the quality or intent of the prosecutors and the police. They do whatever they can but it seems there is only so much they can do.

w The case expanded. Allegations have turned into a conspiracy theory rather than concrete evidence.

w Investigations are conducted in wave style and after almost each wave a new indictment is prepared.

w People taken into custody have created suspicion. The way people were taken into custody created an impression as if legal rules were broken.

w Open-ended allegations were not convincing.

All this caused important questions to come up in the public and the belief regarding allegations took a hit.

On top of that, when those conducting the investigation constantly served some part of the media, it even raised more questions regarding the direction and content of the investigation.

The government, from the very beginning, identified with Ergenekon and claimed it as their own investigation, saying, "You’ll see what surfaces." The impression of a "hunt for opposition" spread as this attitude was combined with constant publications by the pro-administration media.

The opposition, reacting to each person taken into custody without even reading the allegation or waiting for the evidence, has fanned the flames of this chaos. The case has been identified with the AKP government, and the opposition has taken on the duty of the lawyer. It started to defend real criminals alongside the seemingly innocent people.

We also need to blame ourselves. In general we act irresponsibly, but this time it tops everything. The pro-administration media went on such an opposition hunt and pushed those taken into custody in such a smear campaign that the case changed its appearance. By revealing information on who was to be taken into custody when, who said what in secret recordings and private phone conversations, a penalty was imposed on people even before they were tried.

The opposition media was not any better. Papers and the TV saw high ratings and wanted to have their share.

If I were to summarize, I’d have to say that we are all guilty. We are spoiling Turkey’s most important case. We all, prosecutors, judges, administration, opposition and media should make a note of Haşim Kılıç’s speech at the opening of the Constitutional Court building last week. I’d like to repeat basic points of messages addressing us.

Let’s see if anyone will understand. The honor of those pronounced guilty without a verdict is being destroyed. This is a crime against humanity. Carelessness in the process of law enforcement creates hard-to-fix scars on the dignity of people. Necessary regulations need to be made before the anger resulting from the destroyed honor of mankind turns into a feeling of taking revenge on democracy and the state of law. The struggle to estrange people from their personal convictions continues by picking to pieces the personal lives of judges and prosecutors. Prosecutors remaining motionless in order to impress the judiciary is thought provoking.

Let’s not get upset with others or blame them. We are the ones responsible for this. We have ignored the Armenian genocide for 94 years. They have worked like bees, created a honeycomb and established an enormous beehive. And we only watched them. We buried our heads in the sand and wasted our time talking. Then we noticed, we are in the final stage in the genocide struggle and face a loss. And what’s more is that Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora are not the ones to open the lock. For the first time we seem to have realized that Washington holds the key and is preparing to take serious steps. Whereas for many years, we have not taken this issue very seriously.

We would make speculations about whether or not the U.S. administration would pronounce the word "genocide" and wait for a word from the person who sits in the White House. We would behave nicely along the lines of the administration, make concessions in other issues if necessary, then forget about everything and until next near behave as if nothing has happened. Former U.S. presidents would say, "There has been genocide" in their presidential campaigns but after taking office they would realize the strategic importance of Turkey and never mention genocide in their April 24 announcements. They would be content with other synonyms. And Ankara would like it. It was easy for us. It was enough just to show the strategic importance card. This time everything has changed. Obama showed that he is the kind of president who keeps his words and sticks to whatever he said during his presidential campaign. If you carefully examine his statement you’ll notice that there are three important differences compared to former presidents.

He pointed at ’genocide’ without pronouncing it
The three former presidents never mentioned campaign slogans in their statements on April 24. Whereas Obama said, "I have several times stated my opinion about the 1915 events. I have not changed my mind about that period of time. I want the reality of that period to be accepted honestly and completely." He pronounced the same words in Ankara as well.When describing the Armenian deportation he characterized it as a "death walk." The other three presidents did not say that.Obama instead of using the word genocide again was the first to use the term Meds Yeghern (Great catastrophe) which is equivalent in meaning to genocide.

If we were to bring all of this together we notice that President Obama stopped just one step before the word genocide. If you like, you might interpret his speech as telling us, "You committed genocide" without mentioning the word genocide or any description thereof. If we are to content ourselves with word games then there is no problem. Then we might easily interpret it as Turkey bouncing off the goal post or us being one step away from the genocide declaration.

However, it is important the word "genocide" has not been mentioned. For, if the president had pronounced the word, the next day a genocide draft would have appeared before the U.S. Congress and passed in no time. The passing of the draft would have been a signal for the whole world and any country that has not yet taken action in the genocide issue would line up.

Acts passing parliaments in the world are as of yet not binding. But the perception of "Turks have exercised genocide on Armenians" in the international public opinion would pave the way for a deeper settlement of this belief and the compensation claims. The next step would be the parliaments trying to impose "sanctions on Turkey" through their governments. There are many reasons for President Obama to stop one step before this point of great danger but it is obvious and I’m not sure if you ever noticed that the "I apologize" campaign, which we are suing in court, was very effective in Obama’s decision. He himself states it.

The real process starts now
Those who follow my articles will remember that for years I have been saying "Let’s not bury our heads in the sand. The genocide allegations are approaching. The most effective way to postpone this is to pull Armenia on our side. We can obtain it through opening the border and relieve Yerevan this way." Nobody cared and finally we are confronted with the problem. If we again say, "We made it this year. Hope it works out next year as well" and if we don’t spend any effort, then be assured that on April 24, 2010 we will be branded with the word "genocide" in huge letters. We are only one step away. From now on we must do the most difficult task and take steps to realize the latest consensus.

And more over we need to do this without hurting the Azerbaijanis but pulling them on our side as well.

From now on the Turkish-Armenian road map will hang over our heads like the sword of Damocles. The judge will be Washington. If we were to revolt against the Obama administration or procrastinate in the Armenian issue someone will cut the sword lose. In order to prevent this disaster and our society from being branded with "genocide" the administration in Ankara needs to wake up and take action. Nobody should have the right to push Turkey into such a situation.

After my article was published yesterday Ahmet Davutoğlu, chief advisor of the prime ministry, called to say he wants some corrections to be made. I wrote that word "was out" about Davutoğlu. During his trip to Washington before Obama’s visit to Ankara, he exhibited behavior that increased Americans’ expectations about the readiness to open the border. Especially during Clinton’s and Obama’s visits, Ankara reflected the impression in the press that it approached this matter with sympathy.

Based on these impressions I said that people wondered whether or not "The Turkish side gave exaggerated hopes to the Obama administration and, if so, if Washington feels deceived then might a genocide decision pass through congress." Ahmet Davutoğlu said, "There is no such thing." Neither during contact with Washington nor during Clinton’s and Obama’s visits did we promise "the opening of the border" and repeated insistently they have not engaged in any commitment they cannot fulfill. He said, "I called because I did not want to be misunderstood."

Davutoğlu stressed the fact that they have never exhibited behavior that might mislead the American administration. Then why did the Azerbaijani take on such a brisk attitude? Davutoğlu is very clear about it. "We shared each development with our Azerbaijani siblings. We did not hide anything from them. In any event that cannot be the case. Would we take a step without the Azerbaijanis?"

Now a new period begins
Davutoğlu did not want to go beyond this point in our conversation. He only said, "What we talked about with the Americans surfaced with the announcement last night. We negotiated with the Armenians, informed the Azerbaijanis and started a new period." The purpose is the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia, get relations back to normal and at the same time solve the Karabakh issue. Consider a two-way road. Armenia will take a step and Turkey will answer with a corresponding step. Turkey will make a gesture and the Armenians will answer in the Karabakh issue. One needs to view this as a package agreement. And the parts in this package are interconnected. The content of the process to normalize relations is top secret and it has no timeframe.

Azerbaijan being punished like this and speculations being made regarding the new period is only natural. For, now the 17-year-old frozen Karabakh issue is trying to be thawed. The Minsk Group with its 10 members (including its co-chairs the United States, France, Russia) was established to solve this problem, but has not been able to change the status quo for 17 years. Countries like the United States and France that house Armenian diaspora especially did not want to change the status quo. For, the status quo serves Armenia well.

The realization of the agreement between Turkey and Armenia depends on an agreement between the Azerbaijanis and Armenians regarding Karabakh. And to provide for this agreement the Minsk group needs to spend some effort. This means that Washington and France need to roll up their sleeves and provide support.

One needs to show understanding for reactions in Baku. They are suspicious and concerned about any change after 17 years of status quo. They want to be on the safe side of things in the new balances to be formed. If Ankara increases dialogue with and response to the sensitivity of our Azerbaijani siblings then there won’t be any problems. But this will be a long process. We will see in the future if we can come to the end of the tunnel.

In summary, Turkey has taken a step and started an intelligent process.

The opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey is progressively taking on a more complex form. I fear we might face a big fiasco in the end. I don’t know the contents of negotiations or the background. Nobody knows about the details except the formal authority anyway. All evaluation is done based on formal announcements, statements and information leaked to the press. I would like to reflect the situation based on these data and information given by people participating in negotiations. Was Washington assured?

Let’s start with why the opening of the border is so important: Turkey becomes progressively trapped in the Armenian genocide allegation with each passing year. The genocide allegations are now at a point where they are internationally accepted. The last castle the Armenian lobby cannot destroy is Washington. But they are trying. In case Washington adopts the "genocide" thesis one needs not to be clairvoyant to tell that Turkey’s international business and respect will be hurt.

The only way to slow this process down is to pay attention to relations with Armenia and start a new period of mutual benefits. If the border opens Yerevan will stop turning genocide pressure into a diplomatic imposition, at least for some time. Under these circumstances the key country is the United States and the person its new president Barack Obama. Before elections he said he would accept the Armenian genocide. Now the only way to postpone his promise for a while is to stress the avoidance of undermining the new period between Turkey and Armenia, and to declare not to pronounce the genocide thesis. Meaning, he needs to strengthen his hand.

President Gül’s historic visit to Yerevan and statements thereafter created an atmosphere for a very clear message to the Obama administration. As a matter of fact, before Obama’s visit to Ankara, Ahmet Davutoğlu is said to "have sent positive signals to the U.S. administration" during his contact with Washington. American authorities say that Obama went with such high hopes on his Ankara visit and had the impression in Ankara that "this matter has been finalized." I wonder? I wonder if Turkey really gave a different hope to the Obama administration. Has Azerbaijan not been paid enough attention? We are facing a weird situation at the moment.

Washington believes that the border will be opened and is expectant. Yerevan persists on the border issue, even points to a date. Whereas in Ankara minds are confused. One day we encounter an extremely soft atmosphere, the other day abstaining.

Within this chaos it seems the Baku factor has been forgotten. Behind closed doors Ankara might consider the opening of the border under the condition that Armenians withdraw from at least part of Azerbaijani territory, but this has not been reflected to the public. It seems that it has also not been reflected sufficiently to Baku as well because Azerbaijanis’ reactions are still strong. They have still not eased off. The prime minister for the first time has spoken clearly in a group meeting connecting the opening of the border with the ending of the occupation of the Armenians. He gave the message that as long as the Armenians do not withdraw the border will not be opened.

Baku puts embargo on Turkey’s Armenia politics
The situation at the moment seems very chaotic. The Azerbaijanis showed reactions they never showed before and lobbied as they have never before. The Azerbaijani have taken Turkey’s Armenian politics completely under their control. Ankara used to pay attention to Azerbaijani sensitivity but Baku never imprisoned Ankara like this before. Turkey’s Armenian politics will from now on progress fine tuned with Baku and no important step will be taken without the approval of Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani leader Aliyev has successfully obtained what he wanted and interlocked Ankara. Let’s wait for a genocide decision from congress

The situation at the White House is very chaotic at the moment. One wonders what President Obama will do when he sees that the opening of the border and Turkey fails for one or another reason. Tomorrow is April 24. Announcements will be made from the White House regarding the anniversary of the 1915 events. With great possibility there will be no mention of genocide in his messages. We will probably survive tomorrow but if the border is not opened within this year we should expect the possibility of a decision regarding genocide to pass the U.S. Congress and President Obama not to spend much effort to prevent it.

One needs to stand up and "applaud" the European Union. It has spoiled everything. It started out to solve the Cyprus issue and look how that turned out. I’m talking about the latest elections in Cyprus. The National Unity Party, or UBP, and its leader Derviş Eroğlu came back to power without much effort and defeat was handed to the ruling party, the Republican Turk’s Party, or CTP. I need to tell you why I brought the European Union into this. The only leader who was after a solution for Cyprus for years in any serious way was M. Ali Talat. So much so that because of his contact with Christofias, the president of the Greek Cypriots, to find a solution, he was announced as a traitor. The strongest criticism came from Derviş Eroğlu. Talat was first in the ascendant in 2004 when he supported the Annan plan. The CTP came to power within the frame of searching for a solution and its leader Talat became president in place of Denktaş. Eroğlu always used to be at a variance with Denktaş because of their personal conflict but they shared the same solid attitude regarding a solution to the Cyprus issue.

During the Annan plan negotiations, Eroğlu opposed the plan as much as Denktaş. Eroğlu does not like to look for a compromise or mutual concessions. For him a solution means the registration of today’s situation or no concessions made. He is a status quo fighter. The Turkish Cypriots pinned great hopes on this plan. They were to become a member of the EU and to be enriched. They were to escape isolation. The EU encouraged the people in northern Cyprus to support the plan and churned expectations. Everything went well until the referendum on April 24, 2004. When the Greek Cypriots said no, it created great disappointment. One reason for the disappointment to go further was that the EU did not keep any of its promises. Parts of the isolation will be lifted, they said É Greek Cypriots will pay for their attitude, they said É We will send help and enrich the north, they said. None of it happened, on the contrary the Greek Cypriots behave as they please. They did not care what anyone said after obtaining full membership. Within time disappointment grew and the CTP paid the bill. This party could fulfill neither solution nor reform expectations.

And in the end it handed power straight into the hands of Derviş Eroğlu. The UBP won the elections without an important presence. Because the people of Northern Cyprus could not punish the European Union they punished Talat’s party. Success is still successÉ what’s important here is the result.

But I was at least expecting our European friends to stop and think for a while, "What did we do wrong?" I know they don’t even care. And some countries among them are very happy. For, with this administration it will be even more difficult to find a solution for the Cyprus issue. The deadlock will tie Turkey’s hands and slow down negotiations even further. See what the famous "win-win" has turned into.

Of course nothing comes easy
We all know that the only reason the CTP lost elections was the Annan referendum and the EU not keeping its word. If the administration party had met other expectations besides a solution, or kept up the economy that is collapsing because of the international economic crisis (!) then maybe it would not have experienced such a defeat. But I’m one of those people who believe that the EU aspect played an important role. Europe’s clumsy politicians and people in Turkey who oppose a Cyprus solution collaborated to change the administration in Turkish Cyprus. Congratulations.

The 50-seat Turkish Cypriot Parliament

w National Unity Party (UBP): 585,015 (44.01 percent) 26 deputy

w Republican Turkish Party (CTP): 387,717 (29.17 percent) 15 deputy

w The Democratic Party (DP): 142,607 (10.73 percent) 5 deputy

w Communal Democracy Party (TDP): 90,837 (6.83 percent) 2 deputy

w The Freedom and Reform Party (ÖRP): 83,841 (6.31 percent) 2 deputy