Elections that crushed Mr. Prime Minister

Prime Minister Erdoğan generously spent his 46.58 percent voting credits he gained in the July 22, 2007 general elections. And by receiving only 39.0 percent of the votes in city council elections on March 29, Erdoğan lost 7.58 points, a 16.2 percent decrease in the governing Justice and Development Party, or AKP, votes. I relied on Adil Gür’s opinion poll in advance of the elections and wrote that the AKP will lose 14.55 percent of votes, 6.78 points. The AKP toadies were angry at me.

Many thanks to Mr. Adil Gür!

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Erdoğan turned the elections into his personal issue and poured everything out before the polls. However, we have learned that neither food aid nor white-goods charities nor alms-giving, nor "one minute" screams of his nor his new title, the "Conqueror of Gaza," nor his promises "I am serious this time," nor his mimicking U.S. President Barack Obama and saying "We are like twin brothers," nor his bullying Mr. Aydın Doğan of the Doğan Media Group, nor debates over the Ergenekon crime gang case nor the TRT-6 did not help to save Mr. Prime Minister.

But a simple figure was enough to finish him up: 13.6 percent! Record level of unemployment taught me and Erdoğan that people acted not ideologically but realistically in this election. Mr. Prime Minister on his way to autocracy now will have a seat and make calculations over again. Erdoğan will learn that he cannot fool people by playing the role of the aggrieved.

The dailies such as Zaman, Yeni Şafak and Star’s ignoring the global economic crisis that negatively affected people looked like a hide-and-seek game where children hide themselves but their backs remain out in the open.

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Difficult days are waiting for Mr. Prime Minister ahead. We have not hit the bottom of the crisis yet. That will happen in the midst of 2009. According to experts, the crisis will not make a "V" turn by hitting the bottom first and then coming back up to the surface but will make a "U" turn by spending some time at the bottom. We’ll have to deal with a quite high unemployment figure for a long time.

Prime Minister Erdoğan will have to revise the 2009 budget, to correct the visual growth rate from +4 percent to -4 percent and to create funds for the budget deficit, which was foreseen for a year yet occurred within two months. In order to do that, Erdoğan will either increase taxes or will issue money.

Clearly, the defeated prime minister is between the devil and the deep blue sea. In the aftermath of the polls, he should meet with the International Monetary Funds, or IMF, authorities. The IMF knows perfectly that they are being kept busy because of the election expenditures and now they are greening and waiting for Erdoğan to sit their laps.

Now Mr. Prime Minister will learn the real meaning of strangling people! Following this election, we’ll have a prime minister who has no choice but to do whatever the IMF asks! I will curiously follow the columns of my economist liberal colleagues Mehmet Altan, Eser Karakaş and what kind of tricks, or as said "gata-kulli" in Turkish, they will attempt to help Erdoğan. I will analyze the Saadet (Felicity) Party factor tomorrow, which I have focused on for months.