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What did Israel show? How should we read this?
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Everyone has focused on the Fatah-Hamas split in the Palestinian national unity, geographic division in the West-Bank and Gaza and the polarization of the Arab world. No one noticed a similar political break-up in Israel. The Israeli election results revealed the deep split in the electorate.
So much that the Washington Post used the headline "In Israeli Vote Results, A Setback for Obama" to interpret the significant setback resulted from the polls. In the next day of the bloody scenery in Gaza U.S. President Barack Obama took the seat at the White House and planned to move quickly on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, appointing a "special envoy to the Middle East" on his second day in office, former senator George J. Mitchell. With that, Obama set out the road to start talks for "two-state solution".
The election results in Israel led not-much-willing political actors to take the stage for "two-state solution by way of talks with the Palestinians.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator, offered this succinct appraisal of the election result: "This is like hanging a 'closed for the season' sign on any peacemaking for the next year or so." As Saeb Erakat, chief Palestinian negotiator, said, "Any Israeli government that does not honor past agreements with the Palestinians or "totally freeze all settlement activity, that does not deal seriously with the Arab Peace Initiative and that does not believe in a two-state solution based on 1967 borders, cannot be a partner for peace with the Palestinians."
So who did win the Israeli elections? What kind of a coalition government could be formed?
There two Israelis who claimed to have won the polls and to form the new government. The head of the center-left Kadima Party appeared to eke out a victory and the Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni against the Likud leader Benjamin, "Bibi", Netanyahu. The Kadima was a few points behind the Likud before the elections. But in the elections, Livni held a one-seat lead over the Likud, so she rightfully announced a "victory".
The bloody Gaza offensive seems to have become an effective election campaign tool for the Kadima that won 23 percent of votes against the 22 percent of the Likud. "Tzipi is heading the biggest party, Bibi is heading the biggest bloc, the right-of-center cluster that clearly won more than half of Knesset seats," strikingly said Fania Oz-Salzberger, a senior lecturer at the faculty of law, University of Haifa and the daughter of the renowned author Amos Oz.
Bibi’s Likud doubled the seats and what’s more is that the head of the ultranationalist Yisrael Beituna party Avigdor Lieberman who comes forward with his racist remarks at times also increased the number of seats. Lieberman now holds a "key" position, similar to that of the former Refah Party leader Necmettin Erbakan in the Turkish coalition governments in the 1970s.
In fact, Livni first met Lieberman.There are a few, but specifically two, coalition-scenarios:
1. A right-ultranationalist coalition government under Bibi Netanyahu. Revival of the already dead peace process with the Palestinians is next to impossible with this administration. Netanyahu succeeded to derail the Oslo Peace Process during his prime ministry in the second half of the 1990s.
2. A coalition government based on shared prime ministry between Livni and Netanyahu. The Likud’s leader Yitzak Shamir and the Labor Party leader Yitzhak Rabin had formed a similar one in the early 1990s. So the head of the Labor Party Ehud Barak or Lieberman may join this team. Formation of such a government depends on the merit of the Israeli President Shimon Peres. With this government, it is really difficult to make a progress in peace talks.
Governments in Israel break down very easily and are formed in most difficult ways. The coalition government referred in the second scenario is more fragile compared to the one in the first. There is another possibility as well. Israel may go for a second tour of elections without delay. After these elections results, formation of a new Israeli government, no matter which scenario works, will take a quite long time. This is for sure. In the face of such election results, The Obama administration’s biggest accomplishment in the first four years will be to keep armed struggles and violence under control. If the U.S administration manages this they will be able to focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan issue as their number one priority in foreign policy.
If a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian and the Middle East conflict is expected from the Obama administration, this should be in the second term, if he is elected again. That is to say, the first four year of the Obama administration seems to be "having the ball in the middle field".
The final picture of the Israeli elections will disappoint peaceful initiatives and cause chaos and it is not enough to shed a light on the course of the upcoming period. Now, the elections in Iran are of more importance. But we have to wait until June.What will happen if Mohammed Khatemi or Mohammed Baker Khalibaf wins the elections in June rather than Mahmoud Ahmedinajad? In every angle, Ahmedinajad was a name coupling with the former U.S. President George W. Bush. But now there is the Obama administration ready to reach out to Iran and to have a hand-shake if Iran is ready to open its fist. What if an Iranian administration comes out of the ballot-box ready to have dialogue with the U.S.?
A strange picture will emerge in the region indeed. A U.S. that is able to launch talks with Iran which is seen as the number one threat for Israel and a U.S. that will have a "migraine" because of Israel. Such a configuration has seen before. During the Bill Clinton Administration in U.S., reformist Mohammed Khatemi was leading Iran and Netanyahu was the prime minister of Israel.
If the Obama-Hillary Clinton Administration does not repeated the missed opportunities of that period with a similar government in Iran, Netanyahu may unexpectedly take side for peace or may have a very short period if he becomes the Israeli prime minister. And let’s not forget that Israel was established by the Likud Party in 1948 and the wars of 1956, 1967 and 173 occurred under the Likud Party governments. Again the rightist Likud government led by Menahem Begin had made the first peace deal. This is Middle East, a region of the unexpected developments. The main difference between the said periods in the past and the period now is about the leadership quality. In this period both Arab and Israeli leaders lack ability and vision, even incomparable to those in the past. Turkey’s "political chance" here perhaps, yes perhaps, may increase just because of this very same reason.
Perhaps...
The election results in Israel led not-much-willing political actors to take the stage for "two-state solution by way of talks with the Palestinians.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator, offered this succinct appraisal of the election result: "This is like hanging a 'closed for the season' sign on any peacemaking for the next year or so." As Saeb Erakat, chief Palestinian negotiator, said, "Any Israeli government that does not honor past agreements with the Palestinians or "totally freeze all settlement activity, that does not deal seriously with the Arab Peace Initiative and that does not believe in a two-state solution based on 1967 borders, cannot be a partner for peace with the Palestinians."
So who did win the Israeli elections? What kind of a coalition government could be formed?
There two Israelis who claimed to have won the polls and to form the new government. The head of the center-left Kadima Party appeared to eke out a victory and the Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni against the Likud leader Benjamin, "Bibi", Netanyahu. The Kadima was a few points behind the Likud before the elections. But in the elections, Livni held a one-seat lead over the Likud, so she rightfully announced a "victory".
The bloody Gaza offensive seems to have become an effective election campaign tool for the Kadima that won 23 percent of votes against the 22 percent of the Likud. "Tzipi is heading the biggest party, Bibi is heading the biggest bloc, the right-of-center cluster that clearly won more than half of Knesset seats," strikingly said Fania Oz-Salzberger, a senior lecturer at the faculty of law, University of Haifa and the daughter of the renowned author Amos Oz.
Bibi’s Likud doubled the seats and what’s more is that the head of the ultranationalist Yisrael Beituna party Avigdor Lieberman who comes forward with his racist remarks at times also increased the number of seats. Lieberman now holds a "key" position, similar to that of the former Refah Party leader Necmettin Erbakan in the Turkish coalition governments in the 1970s.
In fact, Livni first met Lieberman.There are a few, but specifically two, coalition-scenarios:
1. A right-ultranationalist coalition government under Bibi Netanyahu. Revival of the already dead peace process with the Palestinians is next to impossible with this administration. Netanyahu succeeded to derail the Oslo Peace Process during his prime ministry in the second half of the 1990s.
2. A coalition government based on shared prime ministry between Livni and Netanyahu. The Likud’s leader Yitzak Shamir and the Labor Party leader Yitzhak Rabin had formed a similar one in the early 1990s. So the head of the Labor Party Ehud Barak or Lieberman may join this team. Formation of such a government depends on the merit of the Israeli President Shimon Peres. With this government, it is really difficult to make a progress in peace talks.
Governments in Israel break down very easily and are formed in most difficult ways. The coalition government referred in the second scenario is more fragile compared to the one in the first. There is another possibility as well. Israel may go for a second tour of elections without delay. After these elections results, formation of a new Israeli government, no matter which scenario works, will take a quite long time. This is for sure. In the face of such election results, The Obama administration’s biggest accomplishment in the first four years will be to keep armed struggles and violence under control. If the U.S administration manages this they will be able to focus on the Afghanistan-Pakistan issue as their number one priority in foreign policy.
If a solution for the Israeli-Palestinian and the Middle East conflict is expected from the Obama administration, this should be in the second term, if he is elected again. That is to say, the first four year of the Obama administration seems to be "having the ball in the middle field".
The final picture of the Israeli elections will disappoint peaceful initiatives and cause chaos and it is not enough to shed a light on the course of the upcoming period. Now, the elections in Iran are of more importance. But we have to wait until June.What will happen if Mohammed Khatemi or Mohammed Baker Khalibaf wins the elections in June rather than Mahmoud Ahmedinajad? In every angle, Ahmedinajad was a name coupling with the former U.S. President George W. Bush. But now there is the Obama administration ready to reach out to Iran and to have a hand-shake if Iran is ready to open its fist. What if an Iranian administration comes out of the ballot-box ready to have dialogue with the U.S.?
A strange picture will emerge in the region indeed. A U.S. that is able to launch talks with Iran which is seen as the number one threat for Israel and a U.S. that will have a "migraine" because of Israel. Such a configuration has seen before. During the Bill Clinton Administration in U.S., reformist Mohammed Khatemi was leading Iran and Netanyahu was the prime minister of Israel.
If the Obama-Hillary Clinton Administration does not repeated the missed opportunities of that period with a similar government in Iran, Netanyahu may unexpectedly take side for peace or may have a very short period if he becomes the Israeli prime minister. And let’s not forget that Israel was established by the Likud Party in 1948 and the wars of 1956, 1967 and 173 occurred under the Likud Party governments. Again the rightist Likud government led by Menahem Begin had made the first peace deal. This is Middle East, a region of the unexpected developments. The main difference between the said periods in the past and the period now is about the leadership quality. In this period both Arab and Israeli leaders lack ability and vision, even incomparable to those in the past. Turkey’s "political chance" here perhaps, yes perhaps, may increase just because of this very same reason.
Perhaps...
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