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Drifting into ’unchartered territory’?
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At the same time U.S. President Barack Obama was cherishing his election victory, villagers in a remote eastern Turkish village were sacrificing sheep to join in the celebrations, featuring placards that read "Obama, you are our hero!" and "You are one of us!" An all-too premature optimism? Probably.
Turkey’s relations with the United States have moved from the notorious tag ’strategic alliance’ during the Cold War to ’problematic partnership’ in the first two years after the Iraq war, and then to ’sporadic partnership mixed with sporadic problems’ since then. Today, the Turks, according to various opinion polls, proudly sport the highest rate of anti-Americanism. With Mr Obama taking over from President George W. Bush, Turkish-American ties will slide towards an unknown territory where the "ethos" will much depend on whether the "hero of the remote Turkish village" will keep his pre-election pledge to recognize the WWI-era killings of Ottoman Armenians as genocide.
Other critical fault lines that will shape the fresh Washington-Ankara axis are Iraq, Iran, Cyprus, Afghanistan and weapons deals.
There has been an American-Turkish modus vivendi over the past decades regarding the Armenian genocide controversy. On every April 24 the Turks and Armenians have looked into the president’s eye to see if he would spell out the sacrosanct word: the genocide. The modus vivendi has worked in a way that the American presidents felt free to catalogue the Ottoman Turks as every evil of their choice except for genocide committers. I once described the situation as "your friend tells you your wife sleeps with everyone else around but never calls her a prostitute." The Turks would go mad at the word "prostitute," so the Americans never mentioned that word although they talked of adultery in every possible detail. But this time things may turn out differently. During the election campaign, not only Mr Obama, but also his nominee for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and Vice President-elect Joe Biden, strongly committed themselves to "call the Turk’s wife a prostitute." Will they? We don’t know.
Although the possibility that a U.S. administration spells the G-word has never been this high, the Americans are aware that such a move would hurt bilateral ties in a major and lasting way. One early hint tells us the new administration may not be tempted by the idea of an early crisis with Turkey. Last Tuesday, testifying at her confirmation hearing at a senate panel, Mrs Clinton declined to spell the G-word when asked by a pro-Armenian senator, Robert Menendez, how the new administration would describe the tragedy. Senator Menendez also asked about the Obama administration’s policy on Cyprus.
Mrs Clinton quite vaguely replied that: "Senator, we will be looking very closely at those and other challenging issues with the eye of moving forward and being effective in responding to these very legitimate concerns." What does that mean? Obama et al are weighing the option of writing Turkey off, but it won’t be an easy decision.
If they do, all else will be null and void. If they behave pragmatically and opt for Mr Obama’s other pre-election pledge, that "he will restore a strategic partnership (with Turkey) badly hurt during and shortly after Iraq’s invasion in 2003," then we can talk about other problematic issues. In fact there is something badly tautological about Mr Obama’s two campaign pledges: How can he recognize the Armenian genocide and at the same time restore a strategic partnership with Turkey?
One face-saving formula to please both the Armenians and the Turks could be via a resolution that could pass in the House of Representatives, a resolution with the "genocide branding." That may please the Armenians, but not the Turks. It would have almost the same earthquake effect as the G-word spelled by the president would. Hence, no happy-ending about that either. Otherwise, Washington will wish to see Ankara as "facilitator" in its diplomatic efforts to convince Tehran not to go nuclear. Also, Mr Obama’s policies for a withdrawal from Iraq and focusing on Afghanistan instead will have repercussions on ties with Turkey. If things go crisis-free the U.S. is expected to make extensive use of the southern Turkish airbase of Incirlik in pulling back troops and equipment from Iraq.
A modus vivendi on Afghanistan seems reasonable. Presently, Turkey keeps some 1,200 troops in Afghanistan, responsible for the protection of Kabul but so far has refused to send more troops or to militarily engage insurgents in the eats and south of Afghanistan. Turkey may send additional troops and engage in training the Afghan army instead of sending the much-wanted combat forces: a perfect modus vivendi.
Cyprus is a different matter that depends more on the policy influence of Mr Biden, than Mr Obama himself. Turkish diplomats fearfully consider Mr Biden as "dangerously close to the Greek position" on Cyprus than to theirs. But they also think the future of the reunification talks will depend more on ’the ground in Nicosia’ than on Mr Biden’s personal agenda. In any case, Mr Biden is a nightmare figure for Ankara. "It’s not only about Cyprus," one Turkish diplomat said. "He has never been warm to any Turkish position on any conflict." Another relief for Ankara: When the world goes wrong in all aspects, politically and economically, it is quite unlikely that Cyprus will be a priority for the new U.S. administration.
Another litmus test: the Predator B
If all goes smooth on the potentially explosive Armenian genocide issue, there is going to be another nice little test to gauge the merits and demerits of Mr Obama’s policy on Turkey. Will the Obama administration approve the sale of the Predator B to Turkey? The hunter-killer Predator B, otherwise known as the MQ-9 Reaper, is a solid unmanned aerial vehicle which, unlike most others in its family of military air platforms, can bomb designated targets -- Turkey wants it for use against the PKK.
Ankara has already officially asked for the Predator B in what could be a government-to-government sale, with unknown prospects as for an American go-ahead. Congress has already given its nod for the delivery of the Predator B to a couple of NATO allies. If it denies permission for the sale of the same weapons system to Turkey, also a NATO ally, hell may break loose at the Turkish military HQ, and therefore in the rest of government offices in Ankara.
So, there are many unknowns in the U.S.-Turkish ’strategic’ equation. During the election campaign, the Turkish bureaucracy, whether in civilian attire or uniform, leaned towards Senator McCain because "the devil I know is better than the devil I don’t know." Now they must deal with the ’devil they don’t know.’
This article was published first in the Greek daily Kathimerini on Jan. 18, 2009
Other critical fault lines that will shape the fresh Washington-Ankara axis are Iraq, Iran, Cyprus, Afghanistan and weapons deals.
There has been an American-Turkish modus vivendi over the past decades regarding the Armenian genocide controversy. On every April 24 the Turks and Armenians have looked into the president’s eye to see if he would spell out the sacrosanct word: the genocide. The modus vivendi has worked in a way that the American presidents felt free to catalogue the Ottoman Turks as every evil of their choice except for genocide committers. I once described the situation as "your friend tells you your wife sleeps with everyone else around but never calls her a prostitute." The Turks would go mad at the word "prostitute," so the Americans never mentioned that word although they talked of adultery in every possible detail. But this time things may turn out differently. During the election campaign, not only Mr Obama, but also his nominee for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and Vice President-elect Joe Biden, strongly committed themselves to "call the Turk’s wife a prostitute." Will they? We don’t know.
Although the possibility that a U.S. administration spells the G-word has never been this high, the Americans are aware that such a move would hurt bilateral ties in a major and lasting way. One early hint tells us the new administration may not be tempted by the idea of an early crisis with Turkey. Last Tuesday, testifying at her confirmation hearing at a senate panel, Mrs Clinton declined to spell the G-word when asked by a pro-Armenian senator, Robert Menendez, how the new administration would describe the tragedy. Senator Menendez also asked about the Obama administration’s policy on Cyprus.
Mrs Clinton quite vaguely replied that: "Senator, we will be looking very closely at those and other challenging issues with the eye of moving forward and being effective in responding to these very legitimate concerns." What does that mean? Obama et al are weighing the option of writing Turkey off, but it won’t be an easy decision.
If they do, all else will be null and void. If they behave pragmatically and opt for Mr Obama’s other pre-election pledge, that "he will restore a strategic partnership (with Turkey) badly hurt during and shortly after Iraq’s invasion in 2003," then we can talk about other problematic issues. In fact there is something badly tautological about Mr Obama’s two campaign pledges: How can he recognize the Armenian genocide and at the same time restore a strategic partnership with Turkey?
One face-saving formula to please both the Armenians and the Turks could be via a resolution that could pass in the House of Representatives, a resolution with the "genocide branding." That may please the Armenians, but not the Turks. It would have almost the same earthquake effect as the G-word spelled by the president would. Hence, no happy-ending about that either. Otherwise, Washington will wish to see Ankara as "facilitator" in its diplomatic efforts to convince Tehran not to go nuclear. Also, Mr Obama’s policies for a withdrawal from Iraq and focusing on Afghanistan instead will have repercussions on ties with Turkey. If things go crisis-free the U.S. is expected to make extensive use of the southern Turkish airbase of Incirlik in pulling back troops and equipment from Iraq.
A modus vivendi on Afghanistan seems reasonable. Presently, Turkey keeps some 1,200 troops in Afghanistan, responsible for the protection of Kabul but so far has refused to send more troops or to militarily engage insurgents in the eats and south of Afghanistan. Turkey may send additional troops and engage in training the Afghan army instead of sending the much-wanted combat forces: a perfect modus vivendi.
Cyprus is a different matter that depends more on the policy influence of Mr Biden, than Mr Obama himself. Turkish diplomats fearfully consider Mr Biden as "dangerously close to the Greek position" on Cyprus than to theirs. But they also think the future of the reunification talks will depend more on ’the ground in Nicosia’ than on Mr Biden’s personal agenda. In any case, Mr Biden is a nightmare figure for Ankara. "It’s not only about Cyprus," one Turkish diplomat said. "He has never been warm to any Turkish position on any conflict." Another relief for Ankara: When the world goes wrong in all aspects, politically and economically, it is quite unlikely that Cyprus will be a priority for the new U.S. administration.
Another litmus test: the Predator B
If all goes smooth on the potentially explosive Armenian genocide issue, there is going to be another nice little test to gauge the merits and demerits of Mr Obama’s policy on Turkey. Will the Obama administration approve the sale of the Predator B to Turkey? The hunter-killer Predator B, otherwise known as the MQ-9 Reaper, is a solid unmanned aerial vehicle which, unlike most others in its family of military air platforms, can bomb designated targets -- Turkey wants it for use against the PKK.
Ankara has already officially asked for the Predator B in what could be a government-to-government sale, with unknown prospects as for an American go-ahead. Congress has already given its nod for the delivery of the Predator B to a couple of NATO allies. If it denies permission for the sale of the same weapons system to Turkey, also a NATO ally, hell may break loose at the Turkish military HQ, and therefore in the rest of government offices in Ankara.
So, there are many unknowns in the U.S.-Turkish ’strategic’ equation. During the election campaign, the Turkish bureaucracy, whether in civilian attire or uniform, leaned towards Senator McCain because "the devil I know is better than the devil I don’t know." Now they must deal with the ’devil they don’t know.’
This article was published first in the Greek daily Kathimerini on Jan. 18, 2009
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