Will the road pass through Ankara?

That was the question posed by Yannis Pretenteris, one of the most outspoken and popular commentators in the Greek media, in his column entitled "With somebody else’s kollyva.*" The title referred to the well-known Greek saying "They make a memorial service with somebody else’s kollyva," which can be loosely translated as "They adorn themselves with borrowed plumes."

Pretenteris continued, "Nobody challenges the right of the U.S. to think that it needs Turkey. The question is why should Europe pay the bill for Turkey, which is needed by the U.S.? And why should we christen Turks as Europeans, when President Obama could perfectly well christen Turks as Americans who after all would vote for him, too!" The aftershocks of Obama’s visit to Turkey are still being felt on both sides of the Aegean. Greek political and media circles continue wondering and pondering whether the traditional American policy of keeping equal distance from Turkey and Greece has been replaced by preferential treatment of Turkey as a strategic partner. Of course, it is still too early to say what such a choice would imply in the end for Ankara, but as far as Greece is concerned, Obama’s star has started fading. He has been already labeled as a "Turkophile."

In moments like these, Europe seems to be the obvious refuge. In France, where Foreign Minister Kouchner is the latest convert to the "Turkey-out-of the EU" camp, the Greek prime minister was welcomed last week and shared his thoughts on Ankara’s policies with the French president. He found the opportunity to point out once again to his French interlocutors that Ankara is far behind on its promises, especially regarding Cyprus, although he repeated the "unshaken" support of Athens for Turkey’s course towards the EU, "under conditions," of course.

Kostas Karamanlis, whose government about to undergo a major popularity test in June during elections for the Greek representatives at the European Parliament, has many domestic problems on his mind. Besides a shaky economy, and a never-ending saga of corruption scandals involving former members of his government, rumors of a soft "palace coup" by some senior party members later this year are circulating in Athens.

Obama’s visit created another headache for Athens. The strong references the American president made in his speech to the Turkish Parliament about the reopening of the Halki Seminary in Istanbul and the ongoing negotiations in Cyprus showed where the administration in Washington is placing its priorities: on the domestic vote in the U.S., where Greek Americans and Greek Cypriots play an important role. What Obama did not mention in his speech was the Greek-Turkish problems in the Aegean. Nor did the American president make any reference to them in any of his other public statements during his two days’ stay in Turkey.

The absence of any public reference to Greece was interpreted in Athens as Ankara being given a "free hand" by the Americans to deal with Greece as it wishes. This is not good news for Athens at a moment when the presidency of the European Union will be handed over soon to Sweden, a known pro-Turkey member of the union. Sweden, whose Foreign Minister Carl Bildt had the chance to meet many of his European Union counterparts during the recent Alliance of Civilizations forum in Istanbul Ğ including the Greek Cyprus Foreign Minister Marcos Kyprianou Ğ is known to favor a further expansion of the EU. That, of course, means Turkey, which is first in line to join the Brussels club.

What is worse for the Greek side is that Sweden may try to push some kind of arrangement that would give Ankara breathing room in its relations with Brussels. Under such an arrangement, Turkey Ğ which has been given until December to sort out its problems, including its relations with Greek Cyprus Ğ will be granted further time, perhaps as long as 18 months, according to media sources on the island. According to the worst-case scenario, starting in June, we may be expecting a hotter than usual summer in the Aegean. Ankara may feel more comfortable in advancing its positions regarding what it considers its "rights of movement" in the Aegean, knowing that there will be a more sympathetic reaction both from Washington and Brussels. At least this is the worst fear in some Greek circles, which are also expecting a quick solution on Cyprus that favors Ankara.

Of course, all these analyses are done by observers who are not usually taking the domestic situation in Turkey into serious consideration. Obama’s visit overshadowed the darker sides of last month’s local elections and the relative loss of power of the governing party, coupled with the rise of the ultra-right and the emergence of a revamped Islamist Welfare Party under a new leader. In addition, no one yet knows the implications of the continuing economic crisis on the political landscape in Turkey, nor its impact on public opinion.Seen from outside, all roads between Washington and Brussels seem to pass through Ankara, but we have been in this country long enough to wait a little longer before we pronounce our conclusions.



*Kollyva is a special meal made of boiled wheat, sugar, pomegranate, raisins, nuts, sugar and almonds served at Orthodox funerals and memorial services. The word is also used in Turkish, mainly in the Black Sea region.