Yalcin Dogan: Pushing the button at the end of the poker game
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Temmuz 21, 2006 13:27
The countdown has begun for an over-the-border military operation against the PKK in Northern Iraq. Things are definitely leaning this way. From a series of meetings which took place at the start of this week, there emerged two sentences which I thought were clarifying: "Yes, we will do it." This was the first sentence. This is what Ankara told the Turkish military. "Yes, we might do it." This was the second sentence. This is what Ankara told the American administration.
There is of course a difference in meaning between the two sentences. The first one is an expression of decisiveness. The second one expresses a possibility within an ambigious time frame. The sentence asserted to the military brings about concrete results. It means "You better complete your technical preparations." The military, hearing a "Yes, we will do it" from Ankara, begins to complete its preparations.
The words spoken to the American administration are more of a diplomatic way of "giving news to the other side."
For the past few years, the Kandil Mountains in Northern Iraq have been the home of PKK camps. But in recent weeks, news has come to Ankara that, with rumors of an impending operation by Turkey, the PKK camps in the Kandil Mountains have been cleared out. But while the terrorists themselves may be gone, their guns, depos, and provisions remain behind. In other words, the fact that PKK fighters themselves may have cleared out of the mountains in no way means Turkey will pass up on the chance for an air operation against the Kandil Mountains. But what it does mean is that a stress will be put on a land campaign. Hot pursuit on Northern Iraqi soil.
UN conditions
Turkey bases its reasoning for such an operation on two UN laws. The first is the law that "a country has the right to protect itself against attacks." The second is that "while protecting itself, a country can pursue the attackers." This means also on another country's land. These laws are currently being refreshed by Ankara for the sake of the US administration's memories.
32nd anniversary
The real problem now is the worry of how this will all play out, despite US resistance. Up until now, the US has not been convinced. Tayyip Erdogan is playing poker with the US. It's a gamble. But, according to the information I have, Erdogan is not bluffing. He is examining the past instead. He is thinking about what could happen if he goes through with something along the lines of which the US does not approve. Like the embargo the US placed on Turkey following the Cyprus Peace Action Plan. But right now, the US's hand is a bit weak, because of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. And in the fall, Iran will be back on the agenda. And the US will thus need Turkey in the fall.
This is multi-faceted game of foreign policy poker.
I am betting that Tayyip Erdogan is making domestic and international political calculations while wavering on this life decision.
The words spoken to the American administration are more of a diplomatic way of "giving news to the other side."
For the past few years, the Kandil Mountains in Northern Iraq have been the home of PKK camps. But in recent weeks, news has come to Ankara that, with rumors of an impending operation by Turkey, the PKK camps in the Kandil Mountains have been cleared out. But while the terrorists themselves may be gone, their guns, depos, and provisions remain behind. In other words, the fact that PKK fighters themselves may have cleared out of the mountains in no way means Turkey will pass up on the chance for an air operation against the Kandil Mountains. But what it does mean is that a stress will be put on a land campaign. Hot pursuit on Northern Iraqi soil.
UN conditions
Turkey bases its reasoning for such an operation on two UN laws. The first is the law that "a country has the right to protect itself against attacks." The second is that "while protecting itself, a country can pursue the attackers." This means also on another country's land. These laws are currently being refreshed by Ankara for the sake of the US administration's memories.
32nd anniversary
The real problem now is the worry of how this will all play out, despite US resistance. Up until now, the US has not been convinced. Tayyip Erdogan is playing poker with the US. It's a gamble. But, according to the information I have, Erdogan is not bluffing. He is examining the past instead. He is thinking about what could happen if he goes through with something along the lines of which the US does not approve. Like the embargo the US placed on Turkey following the Cyprus Peace Action Plan. But right now, the US's hand is a bit weak, because of the Israeli attacks on Lebanon. And in the fall, Iran will be back on the agenda. And the US will thus need Turkey in the fall.
This is multi-faceted game of foreign policy poker.
I am betting that Tayyip Erdogan is making domestic and international political calculations while wavering on this life decision.