Will Turkey's ruling AKP run the risk of referendum for Constitution?

"What we seek is the adoption of a civil constitution. It’s the people’s demand. We’ll call on the other parties for consensus. But if we cannot find it, we’ll sure complain about it to the people," a senior AKP official told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

Though the draft amendments have concluded, one official said, it awaits Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s approval to be submitted to Parliament. But the real question for the AKP is whether it decides to run the risk of holding a referendum.

The current Constitution was prepared by the military junta in the early 1980s following a coup. Since then, political parties have tried to rewrite it but have consistently failed due to disagreements. For many, the best way to renew the Constitution is to establish a large commission under the roof of Parliament, composed of representatives of all parties, non-governmental organizations and legal experts.

But the AKP insists on drafting it on its own and then opening it to public debate. Both the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP, have said they will not back such initiatives, while the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party, or DTP, promises partial support to the amendments.

Since failing to win full support of other parties, the AKP is now considering taking the amendments to referendum, an obligation stemming from the current composition of Parliament. The AKP has 338 seats but to amend the Constitution it requires votes from at least 367 deputies. The CHP, with 97 seats, the MHP with 69 and the minor Democratic Left Party, or DSP, with 12, will all likely vote against the amendments.

In this case, even the full of support of the DTP with its 20 deputies would not be enough to ensure the approval of the amendments. According to the current Turkish Constitution, constitutional amendments must be taken to referendum if pro-change votes remain between 330 and 367.

“We continue to elaborate the situation. The decision to take them to referendum will be made by Prime Minister Erdoğan at the end of these evaluations," an AKP official said.

If Erdoğan decides not to run for a popular vote for the changes then the party will not submit them to Parliament, according to the same official.

DTP cautious this time

The DTP, which had backed the AKP’s earlier initiatives to amend the Constitution, now seems to be much more cautious. It will surely back the amendment of articles that would make party closures more difficult but will also likely insist on dropping the 10 percent national threshold applied in general elections for parties enter Parliament.

The DTP is facing the threat of being dissolved by the Constitutional Court, charged with being the political arm of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

The content of the package

According to AKP officials, around 20 articles of the Constitution will be amended.  If approved by Parliament or by popular vote, the composition of the Constitutional Court will be restructured. The number of judges will be increased to 17, 19 or 21 from the current 11, half of whom would be selected by Parliament.

Individual applications to the court will also be possible, the purpose of which aims to reduce the number of applications to the European Court of Human Rights.The amendments would bring about a new concept of “Turkey deputyship” with the quota of 100 deputies, to allow all parties to send representatives to Parliament according to the votes they receive in the general elections. The remaining 450 deputies will be elected from the parties that pass the national threshold.

It is not yet certain whether the amendments also include term limits for the president and Parliament. In 2007, the tenures of both were reduced from seven years to five and from five to four respectively. Some experts argue that current President Abdullah Gül will be exempt from this amendment because he was elected to his post before the Constitution was amended. The opposition on the other hand makes it clear that Gül’s tenure will end in 2012 but that he has the chance to be re-elected by popular vote.