US race, crisis dominated agenda in 2008, say experts
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by Mine Tafolar
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Aralık 31, 2008 00:00
ISTANBUL - US Senator Barack Obama’s historic journey to the White House and the worst global financial crisis since the Depression topped the world’s agenda in 2008, academics and experts in Turkey agree. They expect a significant shift, but not a miracle from Obama, adding the impacts of the crisis will be felt throughout 2009
The election of Barack Obama as the president of the United States and the global financial crisis are the top two events that marked 2008 around the world, according to academics and experts in Turkey.   Â
In stark contrast to the legacy of his predecessor, President-elect Obama vowed to rebuild the United States’ stature across the world. Experts in Turkey shared the view that Obama’s policies will differ from the unilateral policies of Bush, as he will adopt a multilateral approach, paying heed to the decisions of global organizations and cooperating with allies. They also cautioned, however, that no miracle should be expected, given the grueling tasks ahead, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Israeli-Palestnian conflict, negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and the severe financial crisis.
Washington will prioritize peaceful ways rather than war rhetoric and will attach importance to negotiations with allies during the Obama rule, according to Ä°lter Turan, a professor of political science from Bilgi University. Ä°lhan Ãœzgel, a political scientist from Ankara University agreed, saying, "Republicans generally prefer a unilateral foreign policy, while Democrats launch a multilateral initiative. This will be the case under the Obama administration as well."
"It will be hard for Obama to untie Washington from the Iraq quagmire. I do not believe the United States will completely pull out from Iraq in 2009," İnal Batu, a retired ambassador and former deputy of Republican People’s Party, or CHP, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.
Somalization of Afghanistan?
Experts also pointed to the tough problems Obama will confront in Afghanistan in 2009. "The problems that have entangled Afghanistan for a long period of time will continue in 2009. I do not believe that there will be stability [there] in 2009," said Ãœzgel.
Parallel to the assertions of Üzgel, retired ambassador and former foreign minister İlter Türkmen also said the situation in Afghanistan would be a major challenge for Obama.
"The conditions in Afghanistan are neither dazzling nor promising at all," he said, recalling that Soviet invasion forces could not achieve what they had aspired to in the past. The bleak picture in the region might end with the "Somalization of Afghanistan," said Türkmen. He said international powers, unable to cope with the gloomy environment in the region, might leave Afghanistan to its own fate, as in the case of Somalia.
Negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and the economic crisis will be other top priorities for Obama.
"An election will be held in Iran soon and [Iranian President] Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not successful in domestic affairs. He will continue to keep tensions high in the region," Turan said.
Experts said adverse impacts of the global crisis will be felt throughout 2009.
"An economic crisis that occurs in the United States is felt in all countries across the world and undermines their strength," said Üzgel. Türkmen agreed, and said the crisis revealed how interconnected the world had become.
Turan said existing power centers might lose power with this crisis. "We might come across a power vacuum," he said, adding that he did not envision a major improvement in the global economy in 2009. "The crisis will continue to be on the agenda during 2009," he said.
Meanwhile, Batu said the crisis might end up in "a mentality shift" from the existing laissez-faire ideology of "wild capitalism" to interventionist Keynesian policies, premised on an understanding of social justice.
"I believe that the signs of this shift from wild capitalism to Keynesian policies have already started, as the states have begun to take a more interventionist stance with aid packages," said Batu. "This shift will not be completed in one day, but I believe 2009 will be a year that further strengthens this mentality shift from laissez-faire policies to interventionist policies," he said.
In stark contrast to the legacy of his predecessor, President-elect Obama vowed to rebuild the United States’ stature across the world. Experts in Turkey shared the view that Obama’s policies will differ from the unilateral policies of Bush, as he will adopt a multilateral approach, paying heed to the decisions of global organizations and cooperating with allies. They also cautioned, however, that no miracle should be expected, given the grueling tasks ahead, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Israeli-Palestnian conflict, negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and the severe financial crisis.
Washington will prioritize peaceful ways rather than war rhetoric and will attach importance to negotiations with allies during the Obama rule, according to Ä°lter Turan, a professor of political science from Bilgi University. Ä°lhan Ãœzgel, a political scientist from Ankara University agreed, saying, "Republicans generally prefer a unilateral foreign policy, while Democrats launch a multilateral initiative. This will be the case under the Obama administration as well."
"It will be hard for Obama to untie Washington from the Iraq quagmire. I do not believe the United States will completely pull out from Iraq in 2009," İnal Batu, a retired ambassador and former deputy of Republican People’s Party, or CHP, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.
Somalization of Afghanistan?
Experts also pointed to the tough problems Obama will confront in Afghanistan in 2009. "The problems that have entangled Afghanistan for a long period of time will continue in 2009. I do not believe that there will be stability [there] in 2009," said Ãœzgel.
Parallel to the assertions of Üzgel, retired ambassador and former foreign minister İlter Türkmen also said the situation in Afghanistan would be a major challenge for Obama.
"The conditions in Afghanistan are neither dazzling nor promising at all," he said, recalling that Soviet invasion forces could not achieve what they had aspired to in the past. The bleak picture in the region might end with the "Somalization of Afghanistan," said Türkmen. He said international powers, unable to cope with the gloomy environment in the region, might leave Afghanistan to its own fate, as in the case of Somalia.
Negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program and the economic crisis will be other top priorities for Obama.
"An election will be held in Iran soon and [Iranian President] Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not successful in domestic affairs. He will continue to keep tensions high in the region," Turan said.
Experts said adverse impacts of the global crisis will be felt throughout 2009.
"An economic crisis that occurs in the United States is felt in all countries across the world and undermines their strength," said Üzgel. Türkmen agreed, and said the crisis revealed how interconnected the world had become.
Turan said existing power centers might lose power with this crisis. "We might come across a power vacuum," he said, adding that he did not envision a major improvement in the global economy in 2009. "The crisis will continue to be on the agenda during 2009," he said.
Meanwhile, Batu said the crisis might end up in "a mentality shift" from the existing laissez-faire ideology of "wild capitalism" to interventionist Keynesian policies, premised on an understanding of social justice.
"I believe that the signs of this shift from wild capitalism to Keynesian policies have already started, as the states have begun to take a more interventionist stance with aid packages," said Batu. "This shift will not be completed in one day, but I believe 2009 will be a year that further strengthens this mentality shift from laissez-faire policies to interventionist policies," he said.