US, Hezbollah thaw in the cards
Güncelleme Tarihi:
by Mine Tafolar
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Haziran 03, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - US President Barack Obama may underline his respect for the outcome of the June 7 Lebanese polls in which militant group Hezbollah is expected to a secure landslide victory. Obama may voice his support to democratic Lebanon as part of his speech in Egypt while he will try to reach the hearts and minds of Muslims after years of rancor, experts argue
As U.S. President Barack Obama prepares to give a keynote speech addressing the Muslim world in Cairo on Thursday, both the U.S. administration and Hezbollah give moderate signals, reducing the threat of an elevated tension after the Lebanese militant group’s expected victory in the country's legislative elections June 7, say experts.
Possible Israeli response to the U.S. overtures toward Lebanon as well as its main backer Iran will play a pivotal role for the reliability of the American administration’s dialogue policy in the minds and hearts of the Muslim world in the volatile region, experts caution.
"Obama may underline his respect of democracy and the results of the democratic elections in Lebanon during his speech on Thursday," Oytun Orhan, an expert from the Middle East Strategic Research Organization, or ORSAM, told Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review yesterday. Therefore, he can pay due respect to the results of the elections even if anti-American Hezbollah emerges victorious, Orhan said.
Obama has said his speech in Cairo would aim to broach relations between the West and the Muslim world and to overcome some mutual misapprehensions eight years after the Sept. 11 attacks.
It comes on the eve of key Lebanese elections that will determine the shape of the country’s parliament and government until 2013. Hezbollah, which has been labeled a terrorist organization by Washington, and its allies are expected to secure landslide victories in the polls against the U.S.-backed alliance, which is led by Future Movement party slain leader and former PMRafiq Hariri’s son Saad al-Hariri.
No embargo or isolation
Obama won’t stick with the policies of his predecessor, George W. Bush and will certainly not carry out a strategy of embargos or isolation against Hezbollah, said Şanlı Bahadır Koç, a researcher in American and Middle East politics, referring to an embargo imposed by Western countries after Hamas’ victory in the 2006 elections.
"The new U.S. administration might cut its military and financial assistance, or it could grant its financial aid on certain conditions. Washington might also demand Hezbollah militants to become internal parts of the Lebanese army," Koç said.
Hamas won the elections ahead of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah, which has long dominated Palestinian politics. The Bush administration launched aid boycott and embargo against Hamas and intended to isolate the group; however, those policies stirred resentment among many Palestinians, even those who did not support Hamas, and boosted support for Hamas in the region. Regional experts warn possible embargo or sanctions will fuel Hezbollah’s popularity not only in Lebanon, but also the whole region.
Orhan said Obama’s Mideast policy, which attaches importance to solution of the problems via dialogue, largely differs from Bush’s perception of the region. "A policy of isolation or exclusion of Hezbollah is not an option."
"In stark contrast to Bush’s policies, Obama aspires to solve problems through diplomacy rather than through force, in other words he chooses granting carrots instead of beating with sticks," said Bülent Aras, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Işık University, in line with Orhan’s remarks. "Obama will not repeat the mistakes that Bush made against Hamas and will act accordingly concerning its stance against Hezbollah," said Serkan Taflıoğlu, an expert on the Middle East, adding that Obama will implement consistent policies that will not contradict with his approach based on diplomacy.
There are also signs of moderation in Lebanon among different camps, said Orhan. "We have more tones of gray in Lebanon at the moment, rather than black and white tones," he said.
Koç agreed by saying, "Hezbollah might pursue a more moderate and responsible stance after elections. Even if Hezbollah continues its defiant stance, that will create more of a problem with Israel rather than with Washington and Israel might further toughen its stance in the aftermath."
In this respect, reliability of the Obama administration’s emphasis on dialogue in the Middle East largely hinges on Israeli response, said Taflıoğlu. "The main determinant concerning the reliability of Obama’s approach in the Middle East will be the stance of the Israeli administration in the upcoming period," he said.
In accordance with Koç’s remarks, Aras described the existing relations between Jerusalem and Washington as "controlled tension," adding that this tension might escalate at the end of 2009 on the basis of Israel’s reactions against the developments in the region. "For the first time in its history, Israel might choose to break with the U.S. in maintaining its security, beginning from the end of 2009. There is a serious possibility that tensions might grow between Israel and the U.S. in the near future," he said.
Possible Israeli response to the U.S. overtures toward Lebanon as well as its main backer Iran will play a pivotal role for the reliability of the American administration’s dialogue policy in the minds and hearts of the Muslim world in the volatile region, experts caution.
"Obama may underline his respect of democracy and the results of the democratic elections in Lebanon during his speech on Thursday," Oytun Orhan, an expert from the Middle East Strategic Research Organization, or ORSAM, told Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review yesterday. Therefore, he can pay due respect to the results of the elections even if anti-American Hezbollah emerges victorious, Orhan said.
Obama has said his speech in Cairo would aim to broach relations between the West and the Muslim world and to overcome some mutual misapprehensions eight years after the Sept. 11 attacks.
It comes on the eve of key Lebanese elections that will determine the shape of the country’s parliament and government until 2013. Hezbollah, which has been labeled a terrorist organization by Washington, and its allies are expected to secure landslide victories in the polls against the U.S.-backed alliance, which is led by Future Movement party slain leader and former PMRafiq Hariri’s son Saad al-Hariri.
No embargo or isolation
Obama won’t stick with the policies of his predecessor, George W. Bush and will certainly not carry out a strategy of embargos or isolation against Hezbollah, said Şanlı Bahadır Koç, a researcher in American and Middle East politics, referring to an embargo imposed by Western countries after Hamas’ victory in the 2006 elections.
"The new U.S. administration might cut its military and financial assistance, or it could grant its financial aid on certain conditions. Washington might also demand Hezbollah militants to become internal parts of the Lebanese army," Koç said.
Hamas won the elections ahead of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah, which has long dominated Palestinian politics. The Bush administration launched aid boycott and embargo against Hamas and intended to isolate the group; however, those policies stirred resentment among many Palestinians, even those who did not support Hamas, and boosted support for Hamas in the region. Regional experts warn possible embargo or sanctions will fuel Hezbollah’s popularity not only in Lebanon, but also the whole region.
Orhan said Obama’s Mideast policy, which attaches importance to solution of the problems via dialogue, largely differs from Bush’s perception of the region. "A policy of isolation or exclusion of Hezbollah is not an option."
"In stark contrast to Bush’s policies, Obama aspires to solve problems through diplomacy rather than through force, in other words he chooses granting carrots instead of beating with sticks," said Bülent Aras, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Işık University, in line with Orhan’s remarks. "Obama will not repeat the mistakes that Bush made against Hamas and will act accordingly concerning its stance against Hezbollah," said Serkan Taflıoğlu, an expert on the Middle East, adding that Obama will implement consistent policies that will not contradict with his approach based on diplomacy.
There are also signs of moderation in Lebanon among different camps, said Orhan. "We have more tones of gray in Lebanon at the moment, rather than black and white tones," he said.
Koç agreed by saying, "Hezbollah might pursue a more moderate and responsible stance after elections. Even if Hezbollah continues its defiant stance, that will create more of a problem with Israel rather than with Washington and Israel might further toughen its stance in the aftermath."
In this respect, reliability of the Obama administration’s emphasis on dialogue in the Middle East largely hinges on Israeli response, said Taflıoğlu. "The main determinant concerning the reliability of Obama’s approach in the Middle East will be the stance of the Israeli administration in the upcoming period," he said.
In accordance with Koç’s remarks, Aras described the existing relations between Jerusalem and Washington as "controlled tension," adding that this tension might escalate at the end of 2009 on the basis of Israel’s reactions against the developments in the region. "For the first time in its history, Israel might choose to break with the U.S. in maintaining its security, beginning from the end of 2009. There is a serious possibility that tensions might grow between Israel and the U.S. in the near future," he said.