Turkish lira hits all time low against dollar on global economic worries

The dollar hit 1.7743 TL in the early trade in the interbank market on Friday morning. The dollar extending its rise to1.79 TL and hitting the all time highest by mid-morning, traded at 1.78 levels in afternoon trade. �

The lira, having lost some 25 percent against dollar in 2008, has further weakened some 15 percent since the beginning of 2009.�

Analysts say the key level in dollar/TL trade is now at 1.75 and if it stays above that then the likely move will be upwards. The U.S. dollar could rise as much as 1.86 TL, Hakan Kuyumcuoglu, an FX dealer at Garanti Bankasi.

"It is the result of developments concerning General Motors and the global crisis that has been ongoing for some time," AP quoted Industry and Trade Minister Zafer Caglayan said of the lira’s plunge against the U.S. currency.

A warning from struggling automaker General Motors Corp that it may have to file for bankruptcy has shaken world markets, including that of Turkey, where two-thirds of the stock market players are believed to be foreigners.

The currency's weakening position is likely to deepen concerns about Turkey’s economy. On Thursday, the Turkish Businessmen and Industrialists’ Association, an influential business group, again urged the government to reach a new loan deal with the International Monetary Fund to limit the fallout of the global crisis.

The Turkish government has been holding out against finalizing a new loan arrangement, saying some conditions attached to the loan are unacceptable. Talks for a possible new loan were suspended in February.

NO NEED FOR IMF LOAN: PM

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on March 2 Turkey does not need loans from the IMF and may not conclude talks on a possible economic agreement until after local elections on March 29. The country, which is seeking to avert a recession, has external financing needs of about $30 billion this year, according to the central bank’s estimation.

“The increase in fiscal spending and the absence of a rapid IMF deal will continue to keep the lira weak,” London-based strategists including Murat Toprak at Societe Generale wrote in a research note, Bloomberg reported.

“We have been recommending a long dollar-lira position for a while, arguing the lira’s out performance was abnormal given the magnitude of global market deterioration and Turkey’s huge financing needs.”

While Societe Generale targets the lira at 1.85 against the dollar, a move to a psychological level of 2.00 is possible, the note also said.

“The lira has been more resilient than other currencies for a longer time and now it’s catching up,” said Yarkin Cebeci, an economist in Istanbul at JPMorgan also told Bloomberg.

"We may see more volatility in the nearest days. Fundamentally, nothing has changed, but we’ve got persisting uncertainty about the IMF program and an economic slowdown."

The volatility in the foreign exchange market will be high unless a deal with the IMF is finalized and risk appetite in the global markets is improved, another analyst said adding that the main driver of the dollar's appreciation is the monetary policy implemented by the Turkish Central Bank.

"Turkey is now losing its high-yield advantage. The central bank pushed the dollar/TL to a new level in every rate cut," Bulent Topbas, a fund manager in the brokerage company Strateji Menkul.

STOCKS WEAKER

Turkish stocks recovered to opening levels in afternoon trade, after the benchmark Istanbul Stock Exchange Market began the day’s trade dropping more than 1 percent. The yield on the benchmark Nov. 3, 2010 bond rose to 15.36 on Friday from Thursday's close of 15.08 percent.

Investors fled Wall Street on Thursday driven by worries about the stability of the nation's big banks and General Motors.

U.S. stocks ended at 12-year lows, more than wiping out a one-day rally Wednesday. Investors wrestled with more disheartening economic data, new concerns about GM and ongoing uncertainty about the financial system.

Short selling ahead of the U.S. government's Friday employment report exacerbated the losses, slashing 281 points from the Dow Jones industrials and sending all the major indexes down more than 4 percent.