Turkey's ruling party AKP hit by its own strategy, poll results show

One of the starkest results of Sunday’s local elections is that the ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, has seen its first drop in support since its initial rise to power in 2002.Â

Poll results show the party received 8 percent less of the vote than it did in the 2007 general elections. Â
 
Among a number of reasons for the drop, the party’s uncertainty of its main strategy of 3Ys - the fight against corruption, poverty and bans - seems to be at the forefront.

Appearing stunned by the results, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan first convened with his ministers and then held a larger meeting with the party to evaluate the reasons for the decline in support. "We will study the results closely and see why we have ended in this position," ErdoÄŸan said early Monday in his first statement on the elections. He also hinted at a Cabinet reshuffle and other changes within the party.

Since the formation of the AKP, the party top brass has loudly voiced its fight against corruption. As such, much damage was caused by last year’s corruption cases against party officials. The corruption case of the Lighthouse e.V. in Germany - a charity run by Turks whose links with the AKP was revealed - the resignations of Şaban Dişli and Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat form their party positions as a result of alleged corruption claims and further fraud claims in both Ankara and Istanbul municipalities have clearly influenced the drop in AKP support.

Like corruption, the eradication of poverty was another AKP target. But it instead appears as another factor in the decline in support. Though ErdoÄŸan argued that the global crisis would incur minimal damage, unemployment rose by nearly 30 percent in one year. Clearly affected by the economic crisis, votes for the AKPin the industrialized towns of Kayseri, Bursa, Gaziantep and Denizli decreased significantly.

The government’s delay in taking measures to limit the effects of the crisis is also reflected in the outcome. The party’s policy of distributing "coal, food and furniture" to the poor had nearly no effect on the party’s popularity. On the contrary, the move drew reaction from the people.

Discrepancies in the implementation of the party’s third strategy to fight state bans was also important.On the one hand, the AKP exerted efforts to remove certain bans, such as the start of the 24-hour state broadcast Kurdish channel. It was this very move, meant to attract votes in the predominantly Kurdish Southeast but ultimately failed, which saw the party lose support in western regions of the country. In such areas it appears the AKP lost most votes to the Nationalist Movement Party, or MHP.

Furthermore, the party’s restrictions on the freedom of press and speech and fight with the media were also seen as contradictory to its stated commitment to democracy and freedom.

Another factor was the nomination of the wrong candidates in many cities. The AKP seems to have lost Adana after deciding to nominate Mehmet Ali Bilici, instead of Aytaç Durak, the veteran incumbent mayor.

The treatment of some ministers also influenced support for the party. Agriculture Minister Mehdi Eker was for example criticized for his apparent ignorance of Diyarbakır when he appealed to investors to consider the city because he is originally from there. As a result, Erdoğan might change some ministers whose poor performances led to the defeats in their own constituencies. Mehmet Ali Şahin could lose his seat as Erdoğan said, "It was a great surprise for him to lose Antalya." Eker’s Diyarbakır defeat, State Minister Kürşat Tüzmen’s Mersin defeat, Education Minister Hüseyin Çelik’s in Van and Energy Minister Hilmi Güler’s in Ordu could cost them dearly.

The votes the AKP lost look like they went to the MHP or the SP(Felicity) Party. The MHP increased its stake of the vote by around two points over 2007’s general elections. In Manisa and Balıkesir, the MHP saw a sharp increase in votes and won the mayoral seats. Furthermore, the selection of Mansur Yavaş as the Ankara candidate was seen as a good choice to increase both the party’s votes and its visibility in the capital.

SP nearly tripled its votes over the 2007 general elections. Saadet looks to have taken nearly 4 percent of the vote off the AKP, after it changed its party leadership last year when it elected Numan KurtulmuÅŸ to the chairmanship.