Turkey may benefit from falling import

However, it is not only exports that are declining in Turkey. The drop in the country’s imports is actually higher than the decline in its exports. Deteriorating parallel with the rising global financial crisis, Turkey's imports declined nearly $5 billion. The country’s imports are expected to decline $50 billion next year, State Minister Kürşad Tüzmen said.

Turkey’s imports had reached $19 billion to $20 billion prior to October. That figure has declined severely within the past two months. Turkey’s imports in October totaled $14.7 billion and based on preliminary calculations, the country’s imports in November declined to $12.6 billion. The figures show a decline of $5 to $6 billion in monthly imports.

"Turkey is experiencing a serious decline in it imports due to rising foreign exchange rates as well as the contraction in the European markets," said Tüzmen. "If today’s conditions prolong then Turkey’s imports will most likely decline by nearly $50 billion in 2009."

Decline in commodity prices
The price of crude oil and its products, which are the largest imports, has declined seriously, said Tüzmen. "The [crude oil] price deteriorated from $170 to $40 per barrel. Iron and steel prices have also been declining. By the end of this year we expect our imports to cost anywhere from $205 to $210 billion," Tüzmen added.

"As the result of our declining import next year, the ratio of exports covering imports will be much higher then it is today. Also, as our companies producing domestic intermediate goods step in, industrialists will be pushed to use domestic intermediate goods instead of foreign goods," said Tüzmen. "As a result Turkey’s current account deficit will eventually decline.