Status quo likely victor in Iran vote
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by Mine Tafolar
OluÅŸturulma Tarihi: Haziran 12, 2009 00:00
ISTANBUL - As Iranians head to the polls today to decide the country’s next president, experts caution that the main challenger still faces a tough battle with incumbent Ahmadinejad. But, many say, regardless of who wins over the electorate, the supreme leader has the last word on the Islamic Republic’s policies and foreign relations.
Iranians are set to flock to the polls today after a hard-fought presidential election campaign that has drawn massive international attention with its reform-spirited atmosphere.Â
But international observers and experts warn that any policy changes a potential win by the main reformist candidate could bring should not be exaggerated given the defined role of president in the Islamic Republic’s legislation. In Iran, it is the supreme leader who has the final say on strategy, they say.
Experts also do not predict a certain and easy victory for soft-spoken former Prime Minister Mir Hossain Mousavi, the chief threat to incumbent hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They say that it will be a neck-to-neck competition between the two fierce rivals.
Even as the election has emerged as a straight fight between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, the presence of two other candidates, reformist former Parliament Speaker Mahdi Karroubi and conservative Mohsen Rezaei, the ex-chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, could define the outcome of the vote. If no single candidate emerges with the support of more than half of the voters, a runoff will be held June 19.
Arzu Celalifer Ekinci, from the Ankara-based think tank International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, said she envisioned a two-round election competition in which the results would be finalized after the second vote. "Mousavi is a political figure who is able to receive backing both from reformists and the conservative electorate," Ekinci said. Even though Iranian youth do not know him well, the reformist frontrunner has succeeded in overcoming this obstacle to a certain extent, said Ekinci, adding: "The fact that the elections obtained huge media coverage in Iran, Mousavi’s reform-minded proposals, his criticisms of Ahmadinejad’s policies and the role of his wife, Zahra Rahnavad, Iran’s first woman rector, all contributed to increasing support for Mousavi."
But Serkan Taflıoğlu, an expert on the Middle East, said he believes Ahmadinejad still has a high chance of winning the elections. He also criticized the way international press has portrayed the vote, in that it has depicted Mousavi as the clear winner of the elections. "Declaring a clear victory for Mousavi is not right; it will be a neck-to-neck race after all." Murat Bilhan, a retired ambassador and the deputy chairman of the Turkish-Asian Center for Strategic Studies, or TASAM, said the hard-line president still seems to be running ahead in the opinion polls.
"If the vote were held 15 days later, Mousavi would have a higher chance of victory," he said. The crippled economy is depicted as another area that seems to boost support for Mousavi, as Ahmadinejad has been criticized as the culprit behind rising inflation and increasing joblessness figures.
"Although Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 with promises of economic growth, creating new employment opportunities and combating poverty, he mainly diverted his attention to the country’s foreign policy, rather that its economic problems," said Arif Keskin, an expert on Iranian affairs at the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis, or TÜRKSAM.
"A grim picture of the economy, with its current high unemployment figures and rising inflation, has certainly had an impact on the declining support for Ahmadinejad," said Keskin. "Despite the unfavorable economic indicators, Ahmadinejad still manages to retain the support of poorer segments of society and those living in rural areas."
International embargos
But Taflıoğlu disregarded the problems the country has been suffering throughout the last 30 years as a result of embargos, adding: "There is no great difference in Iran when we make a comparison between the economic indicators of the country five years ago and the current economic indicators."
Experts also emphasized the point that even if Mousavi emerges victorious from the elections, the leadership change in Tehran will not bring about a radical shift in the country’s existing structure or its foreign policy, as the shift will be, by and large, confined to a change in rhetoric rather than policies.
According to Taflıoğlu, a presidential candidate needs the approval of the country’s supreme leader, Ali Hoseyni Khamenei, in order to run in the elections. "Therefore, there is not a huge difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi," he said. "After all, all these contenders were among the ones who established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, and they held critical posts in different institutions of the state."
Taflıoğlu said a Mousavi victory would basically mean a change in rhetoric and style rather than a radical transformation of the entire system.
The Iranian election comes on the heels of new U.S. President Barack Obama’s offer for dialogue after a nearly 30-year diplomatic chill, and amid international pressure on Iran to halt its disputed nuclear program. Ekinci said all the potential leaders made it clear during their election campaigns that they would pursue dialogue with the United States and the Obama administration if elected. Keskin said Mousavi’s election would bring a change in rhetoric to Iran’s foreign policy and noted that the former prime minister’s moderate tone might prevent a new increase in tensions between Iran and the Western world.
But international observers and experts warn that any policy changes a potential win by the main reformist candidate could bring should not be exaggerated given the defined role of president in the Islamic Republic’s legislation. In Iran, it is the supreme leader who has the final say on strategy, they say.
Experts also do not predict a certain and easy victory for soft-spoken former Prime Minister Mir Hossain Mousavi, the chief threat to incumbent hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They say that it will be a neck-to-neck competition between the two fierce rivals.
Even as the election has emerged as a straight fight between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, the presence of two other candidates, reformist former Parliament Speaker Mahdi Karroubi and conservative Mohsen Rezaei, the ex-chief of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps, could define the outcome of the vote. If no single candidate emerges with the support of more than half of the voters, a runoff will be held June 19.
Arzu Celalifer Ekinci, from the Ankara-based think tank International Strategic Research Organization, or USAK, said she envisioned a two-round election competition in which the results would be finalized after the second vote. "Mousavi is a political figure who is able to receive backing both from reformists and the conservative electorate," Ekinci said. Even though Iranian youth do not know him well, the reformist frontrunner has succeeded in overcoming this obstacle to a certain extent, said Ekinci, adding: "The fact that the elections obtained huge media coverage in Iran, Mousavi’s reform-minded proposals, his criticisms of Ahmadinejad’s policies and the role of his wife, Zahra Rahnavad, Iran’s first woman rector, all contributed to increasing support for Mousavi."
But Serkan Taflıoğlu, an expert on the Middle East, said he believes Ahmadinejad still has a high chance of winning the elections. He also criticized the way international press has portrayed the vote, in that it has depicted Mousavi as the clear winner of the elections. "Declaring a clear victory for Mousavi is not right; it will be a neck-to-neck race after all." Murat Bilhan, a retired ambassador and the deputy chairman of the Turkish-Asian Center for Strategic Studies, or TASAM, said the hard-line president still seems to be running ahead in the opinion polls.
"If the vote were held 15 days later, Mousavi would have a higher chance of victory," he said. The crippled economy is depicted as another area that seems to boost support for Mousavi, as Ahmadinejad has been criticized as the culprit behind rising inflation and increasing joblessness figures.
"Although Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 with promises of economic growth, creating new employment opportunities and combating poverty, he mainly diverted his attention to the country’s foreign policy, rather that its economic problems," said Arif Keskin, an expert on Iranian affairs at the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis, or TÜRKSAM.
"A grim picture of the economy, with its current high unemployment figures and rising inflation, has certainly had an impact on the declining support for Ahmadinejad," said Keskin. "Despite the unfavorable economic indicators, Ahmadinejad still manages to retain the support of poorer segments of society and those living in rural areas."
International embargos
But Taflıoğlu disregarded the problems the country has been suffering throughout the last 30 years as a result of embargos, adding: "There is no great difference in Iran when we make a comparison between the economic indicators of the country five years ago and the current economic indicators."
Experts also emphasized the point that even if Mousavi emerges victorious from the elections, the leadership change in Tehran will not bring about a radical shift in the country’s existing structure or its foreign policy, as the shift will be, by and large, confined to a change in rhetoric rather than policies.
According to Taflıoğlu, a presidential candidate needs the approval of the country’s supreme leader, Ali Hoseyni Khamenei, in order to run in the elections. "Therefore, there is not a huge difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi," he said. "After all, all these contenders were among the ones who established the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, and they held critical posts in different institutions of the state."
Taflıoğlu said a Mousavi victory would basically mean a change in rhetoric and style rather than a radical transformation of the entire system.
The Iranian election comes on the heels of new U.S. President Barack Obama’s offer for dialogue after a nearly 30-year diplomatic chill, and amid international pressure on Iran to halt its disputed nuclear program. Ekinci said all the potential leaders made it clear during their election campaigns that they would pursue dialogue with the United States and the Obama administration if elected. Keskin said Mousavi’s election would bring a change in rhetoric to Iran’s foreign policy and noted that the former prime minister’s moderate tone might prevent a new increase in tensions between Iran and the Western world.