Out of touch in the Outback
Güncelleme Tarihi:
Oluşturulma Tarihi: Şubat 24, 2009 00:00
We don’t want to ask impolite questions. But...
The world faces its most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. Most European countries are staring at contractions this year of at least 1 percent. The United Kingdom’s economy will probably shrink at least 2 percent. A similar picture is in store for the United States where a new president has followed his predecessor’s $1 trillion rescue with a similar package that early indicators suggest will be of similar futility. Here in Turkey, the official forecast for the coming year is a half percentage point contraction that many say is too optimistic. Industrial capacity usage has declined to about 60 percent. Industrial production is down 25 percent year-on-year and the export numbers have fallen in comparable fashion.
Farmers, who went through drought last year, are faced with declining commodity prices this year and many say they face ruin. Unemployment is back in double-digit territory and expected to rise. The one bright spot many economists had been betting on was tourism. The logic is that impoverished Europeans who can’t afford to visit Spain or Italy this year will come to the low-rent end of the Mediterranean. Then yesterday, the report that even tourism revenue is now down 4 percent year-on-year.
Once upon a time, Turkey could boss around the International Monetary Fund back when this institution was teetering on the edge of extinction, with Turkey being its only real customer outside of Africa. But now, just as Turkey has lost its leverage as everyone from Iceland to Japan wants to be the IMF’s new best friend, Turkey is playing hardball. And the fund is due to run out of money in September. With just a month before local elections, tensions are growing and the Istanbul Stock Exchange is at its lowest since 2005. The Turkish lira, meanwhile, has lost close to 30 percent of its value since a year ago.
Meanwhile, one of the three economic czars in the government, Finance Minister Kemal Unakıtan, has been rushed to the United States for emergency heart bypass surgery. He is not expected to be back in the office for at least a month. Against this backdrop, we can understand the importance of President Abdullah Gül’s three-day visit to Africa, in pursuit of a budding new trade relationship and political allies.
But Austrialia? A country with a total Turkish trade relationship of about 1.6 billion Euros, not enough to put it even in the top 20?
Is this really the best time for a nine-day visit that began Sunday by State Minister for the Economy Mehmet Şimsek to Australia? Is the "Turkish-Austrialian Trade, Economy and Technical Cooperation Joint Economic Committee" really the most urgent matter on Şimsek’s plate?
We hope the question is not impertinent.
Farmers, who went through drought last year, are faced with declining commodity prices this year and many say they face ruin. Unemployment is back in double-digit territory and expected to rise. The one bright spot many economists had been betting on was tourism. The logic is that impoverished Europeans who can’t afford to visit Spain or Italy this year will come to the low-rent end of the Mediterranean. Then yesterday, the report that even tourism revenue is now down 4 percent year-on-year.
Once upon a time, Turkey could boss around the International Monetary Fund back when this institution was teetering on the edge of extinction, with Turkey being its only real customer outside of Africa. But now, just as Turkey has lost its leverage as everyone from Iceland to Japan wants to be the IMF’s new best friend, Turkey is playing hardball. And the fund is due to run out of money in September. With just a month before local elections, tensions are growing and the Istanbul Stock Exchange is at its lowest since 2005. The Turkish lira, meanwhile, has lost close to 30 percent of its value since a year ago.
Meanwhile, one of the three economic czars in the government, Finance Minister Kemal Unakıtan, has been rushed to the United States for emergency heart bypass surgery. He is not expected to be back in the office for at least a month. Against this backdrop, we can understand the importance of President Abdullah Gül’s three-day visit to Africa, in pursuit of a budding new trade relationship and political allies.
But Austrialia? A country with a total Turkish trade relationship of about 1.6 billion Euros, not enough to put it even in the top 20?
Is this really the best time for a nine-day visit that began Sunday by State Minister for the Economy Mehmet Şimsek to Australia? Is the "Turkish-Austrialian Trade, Economy and Technical Cooperation Joint Economic Committee" really the most urgent matter on Şimsek’s plate?
We hope the question is not impertinent.